National Weather Service Raw Text Product

540 
FXUS63 KBIS 120537
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Surface smoke will continue across the Northern Plains through
  the day today.

- Isolated showers early this morning, with better chances later
  this morning through tonight (60 to 80 percent). A few
  thunderstorms possible today across the south.

- Near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the 
  weekend and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Showers are still yet to arrive across the southwest, with 
chances increasing as the day goes on. Smoke seems to be 
lingering across much of the area still, though many locations 
have seen some visibility improvements. The expectation is still
that the smoke will linger for a while, before possible 
beginning to clear later tonight.

UPDATE
Issued at 947 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Strong to severe convection across parts of southern MT and
Wyoming continues to decrease as it moves east into more stable
air. Should still see a few light showers moving into the
southwest this evening, otherwise chances increase across the 
west overnight. 

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Main forecast updates with this product issuance were to modify
POPs and SKY cover based on latest satellite and radar imagery 
and trends. Surface smoke persists as well. Will see chances for
showers and perhaps a lingering thunderstorm in the southwest 
later this evening as convection to our west and southwest 
continues to track east/northeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The overall mid to upper level pattern remains consistent 
across western and central North Dakota through the next seven 
days with low amplitude ridging periodically giving way to 
progressive zonal flow as several shortwaves move through.

For the rest of today, a few light showers will continue
drifting across the state. Given high cloud bases and a dry
subcloud layer, much of this may not even make it to the ground
but a few showers could end up putting down a hundredth of an
inch or two. We did decide to take mention of thunder out of 
the forecast for today, as instability will remain very weak.

Areas of near surface smoke are also forecast to continue over 
the region through tonight and into Thursday. The latest smoke 
model runs have the most dense surface smoke drifting west 
through the rest of today and overnight which makes sense given 
easterly surface winds. The models do start to thin out the near
surface smoke tomorrow as a shortwave approaches to flatten the
upper level flow, but we are likely to see some visibility 
reductions continue across western and central North Dakota 
until at least Thursday evening.

The aforementioned shortwave approaches late tonight, 
increasing precipitation chances from southwest to east 
northeast through the day on Thursday and into Thursday night. 
The best chances (60 to 80 percent) will generally be in the 
afternoon and evening hours extending from the northwest part of
the state, down through the central, and into the southern 
James River Valley. Weak instability (if any) will mainly be 
confined to southern areas along and just north of the South 
Dakota border, so any thunderstorm activity would likely be 
here. Shear will be high but instability should be too weak for 
any severe thunderstorm risk. 

The good news is that as the shortwave moves through, the upper
flow will become zonal which should give us at least a brief 
reprieve from the smoke Thursday night into Friday. Low
amplitude ridging will pop back up again on Friday afternoon
into Friday night which could allow some smoke aloft to filter
back in.

Various waves will then move across the area Friday through at 
least Tuesday, bringing periodic low to medium precipitation 
chances (20 to 50 percent) to much of western and central North 
Dakota. At the moment, it appears the strongest waves will come 
through on Saturday night, Sunday, and Tuesday. This far out, 
plenty of model uncertainty still exists, but there are some 
solutions that suggest sufficient instability and shear for 
strong to severe storms around this time period and beyond. 
Machine learning severe weather guidance and CIPS analogs 
continue to highlight this time frame for some low severe 
weather chances. Thus, the end of the weekend into the middle of
next week could end up being a fairly active period with an 
uptick in thunderstorm activity depending on how the pattern 
evolves. 

Regarding temperatures, it will be breezy (winds still out of
the east) and cooler tomorrow with highs mainly in the upper 
50s to the upper 60s. Friday will also be relatively cool but
not as breezy. Forecast highs will be a touch warmer, ranging
from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. We will then warm through the
weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s on Saturday and some
lower 80s back in the forecast by Sunday. Highs will then be
similar through the middle of next week, mainly in the 70s with
the potential for some lower 80s at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Mostly VFR visibilities are present this morning, though some
denser smoke continue to linger across KMOT and KDIK, resulting
in some MVFR visibilities. Through the morning, visibilities
should improve, before a wave of precipitation begins moving
into the area from the southwest. By midday, widespread MVFR
ceilings and visibility due to rain showers are expected, with
conditions deteriorating further towards the end of the TAF
period, notably across the south where IFR ceilings will cover
much of the area, impacting KBIS, KDIK, and KJMS. Breezy
southeasterly winds can be expected, generally ranging from 15
to 20 kts sustained, with some gusts up to 25 kts, during the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...Besson