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988 FXUS64 KHUN 120451 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley late this evening, with high pressure at the surface promoting dry conditions. High clouds will filter into the region overnight from lingering convection over the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley. These clouds will have little effect on the weather except to keep temperatures a tick warmer tonight, with overnight lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 60s. A surface low will track from the ArkLaTex into the Mid South today as the ridge shifts east. Ahead of this feature, southerly flow will help to advect a warm, moist air mass as dewpoints climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Broad lift associated with this feature will help to trigger low-medium (30-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon -- with a few storms potentially becoming strong. Afternoon highs will peak in the upper 80s in most locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 A slow-moving area of low pressure will meander across the Deep South late this week, bringing much higher chances for showers and thunderstorms (70-90%) both Friday and Saturday -- with the highest probabilities favoring the afternoon and evening hours. PWATs will increase to between 1.8" to 2.0" during this timeframe, evident of the deeper Gulf moisture advecting in. These values would reflect the 95-99th percentile for June 13-14 per BMX sounding climatology. As a result, locally heavy rainfall in locations where storms train and/or stall will be a concern and we'll have to watch for the potential for very localized flash flooding. Despite the high rain chances, enough breaks in the clouds during the morning hours will allow temperatures to at least reach the mid 80s to perhaps upper 80s both days. Despite highs in the 80s, higher RH values will push heat indices closer to the mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 An active pattern will continue through Father's Day weekend and into early next week as the broad upper-low lingers across the Deep South. This will result in medium to high chances for showers and storms each day, favoring the afternoon and evening hours. A few of these storms could become locally strong, but the main concern will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall from these very efficient rain-producing thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover and high rain chances will keep highs in the mid 80s during this timeframe, with peak heat index values remaining in the mid to perhaps upper 80s. Ridging will begin to take shape by midweek, lowering rain chances and potentially giving us more heat impacts by Wednesday as heat indices are forecast to peak above 100 degrees -- with a few locations flirting with Advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 VFR conditions will be the prevailing flight category. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon however thier exact timing and coverage remains somewhat uncertain at this time. Timing and intensity details will be refined in future TAF issuances. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...RAD