National Weather Service Raw Text Product

653 
FXUS62 KCAE 111918
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
318 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening, 
as a weak frontal boundary remains stalled across the area. The 
region will then begin to transition to a more summerlike pattern 
late in the week, with less organized and more typical pulse storms. 
This pattern will persist into the weekend and through the first 
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/..
.
Key Message(s):

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon,
  mainly along and south/east of I-20.

Showers and thunderstorms have quickly developed this afternoon
across portions of our forecast area. Their development is
focused along a remnant frontal boundary draped across the CWA
with convection most likely along and south/east of I-20 today.
Shear is unimpressive which will keep the severe threat low. 
However, there is plenty of CAPE present and PWAT values are in
excess of 1 inch, highest south and east of the aforementioned 
boundary. While organized severe weather is not expected in
these conditions, pulse type thunderstorms can produce frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Convection should 
diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. It'll be
quiet tonight under mostly clear skies, though there could be 
low clouds and/or patchy fog development towards daybreak. 
Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, falling
into the lower 70s by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A Bermuda high will remain anchored off the Southeast Coast. 
Southerly return flow around this ridge will keep us in a summer-
like pattern with seasonably hot and humid conditions as well as 
diurnally-driven showers and storms.

A weak shortwave disturbance that can currently be seen on WV sat 
imagery over the FL panhandle will lift northeastward around the 
northwestern periphery of the ridge. This feature along with a 
stalled frontal boundary over the GA-SC piedmont may enhanced 
convective potential during the afternoon and evening on Thursday, 
especially along and north/west of the I-20 corridor. Farther south 
and east toward the coastal plain, coverage of showers and storms 
looks to be more isolated since lift will have to be primarily 
reliant on localized boundaries such as the sea-breeze (and even 
that may not be well defined with a strong enough gradient winds out 
of the south) and where convective inhibition underneath the ridge 
will be present. PoPs from the NBM were blended with the 12Z CAMs to 
highlight the greater coverage the farther north and west you go. 

Sided closely with NBM for Friday, yielding likely chances for 
showers and storms area wide during the afternoon and evening. 
Although the stalled front may be entirely washed out by Friday, the 
inland-propogating seabreeze and perhaps another subtle shortwave 
trough rotating northward around the backside of the ridge will 
provide a focus for the convection.

Forecast high temperatures (upper 80s to around 90F) and peak heat 
indices (95-100F) are similar for both Thursday and Friday. 
Interestingly, the NBM probabilities show the greatest forecast 
spread out of the next week is on Thursday, but this is likely due 
to CAM members and the potential for convection during peak 
afternoon heating to prevent forecast highs from being realized. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The typical summer-time pattern continues through the long-term 
period thanks to the offshore ridge that will extend westward into 
the Gulf Coast states. The heat isn't expected to be unusual with 
forecast high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s actually 
right at climo for mid June. However, combined with the humidity - 
dewpoints in the mid 70s to occasionally upper 70s - will produce 
heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon this 
weekend. A slight uptick in heat indices are forecast for the first 
half of the work week with peak heat indices in the 103-106F range 
for the Midlands and CSRA. If the forecast trends any higher, then 
the first Heat Advisory of the year would need to be considered. 

The pattern will also remain unsettled with diurnally-driven showers 
and storms. There is a potential for enhanced coverage of convection 
if/when shortwave disturbances track atop the ridge and move into 
the area during peak heating. At this point in time, it's difficult 
to time this.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Brief Restrictions from Showers and Thunderstorms Possible at
all TAF Sites This Afternoon....

Showers and thunderstorms have quickly developed across portions
of the forecast area this afternoon. Added convective
probabilities to the TAFs with this forecast package.
Restrictions are most likely at CAE/CUB/OGB which already have
convection in their vicinity. However, showers and thunderstorms
could also develop near AGS/DNL as the day goes on. Any
lingering convection this evening should diminish quickly with
the loss of daytime heating. Guidance is suggesting the
development of low stratus and/or patchy fog again towards
daybreak Thursday, therefore a TEMPO period has been added to 
account for this. Any low clouds should give way to SCT cumulus 
decks by the end of the current TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief flight restrictions are 
possible each day with typical summertime thunderstorms 
throughout this week and into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$