National Weather Service Raw Text Product

757 
FXUS62 KGSP 200254
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1054 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves toward the Carolina coast by late tonight 
taking most of the showers and storms with it.  Dry air moves in 
behind this front, leading to mostly quiet conditions Friday and 
Saturday. Hot and muggy conditions return Sunday and beyond with a 
hot upper level ridge building over our region.  Daily thunderstorm 
chances return by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 10:25 PM EDT Thursday: We've still got a few lingering showers
over the I-77 Corridor and along the northern NC/TN Border late this
evening. We may see a few more hrs of sct showers along the NC/TN
Border into the overnight as there is currently sct shower activity 
approaching that area. After that things should be mostly dry across
our area in the wake of the fropa. We may see some patchy fog/low 
status develop around daybreak, especially in the major mtn valleys 
and locations that received rainfall from earlier. Overnight lows 
should be a little cooler compared to the past few nights with values 
near normal.

Otherwise, upper trofing will lift NE and off the Atlantic Coast on
Friday. In its wake, heights will start to rebound as upper ridging
begins to build over the Southeast. At the sfc, the frontal boundary
will move east of our area overnight with weak high pressure moving
over the region on Fri. This post-frontal airmass should keep things
mostly dry thru the near-term period with dewpts mixing out into the 
low to mid 60s Fri afternoon. Despite this, mostly sunny skies will
help temps climb back near-normal, with highs approaching 90 across
most of our lower terrain. Some of the CAMs are still trying to ini-
tiate a few showers along the northern Blue Ridge Escarpment Friday
aftn/evening, but this is likely overdone. I keep precip chances <
15% across our CWA tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Thu: In general, little change to the forecast for the
weekend. Subsidence associated with deepening ridge over the SE US
looks to cap off diurnal convection. A weak shortwave generated from
convection in the Upper Midwest may drift southeast over the area
Saturday but presently that looks to have little to no effect on the
inversion or to generate precip on its own, owing to dry profiles
aloft. PoPs will remain below slight-chance Saturday throughout the
CWA, even over the mtn ridges.

Progs of sfc dewpoint across the region still reflect some of the
post-frontal drying on Saturday and did allow dewpoints to mix out a
bit Saturday afternoon. Weak southerly near-sfc flow will aid in
slight moisture return, so dewpoints will rise a little higher Sunday
although still probably falling into the mid-60s across much of the
Piedmont. With that and the weak upslope flow into the mtns and
southern Escarpment, a small area of isolated thunder chances does
return SW of Asheville.

Temps trending warmer, about 3-5 above normal for maxes Saturday and
6-8 above normal Sunday. Despite the mixed dewpoints, some areas in
the lower Piedmont should see heat index exceed 100 Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thu: Upper anticyclone initially centered over West
Virginia will retrograde slightly through the middle of next week,
but will remain very strong in the upper 590s DM. Its low-level
reflection also retrogrades which would further support a warming
trend and may weaken the already paltry moisture flux.  The airmass
will continue to modify anyway; temperatures trend warmer thru
Tuesday when thicknesses appear to peak. Some areas of the lower
Piedmont will flirt with air temps of 100 that day, with widespread
upper 90s otherwise expected across the Piedmont as a whole
Monday-Wednesday. Even the mountain valleys reach the lower 90s
Tue-Wed. Heat Advisory may eventually be needed for portions of the
area Mon-Wed if fcst trends hold.

Deep mixing is forecast in the hot conditions and that permits only
15-20% PoPs over the mountain ridges Mon-Tue.  PoPs trend slightly
higher Wed, probably attributable to increasing model spread in the
specifics of return moisture and position of the anticyclone; values
remain below climo.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to prevail thru 
the 00z taf period. The only exception is at KAVL, where there is 
a decent chance that mountain valley fog will develop overnight and 
impact the terminal beginning around 08z. I limited any IFR restric-
tions to 2sm within a TEMPO group, but they could certainly go lower.
Any restrictions should dissipate/lift by roughly 13z with VFR for
the rest of the period. Otherwise, a cold front is currently making 
its way eastward thru the fcst area. The drier air behind the front 
should keep us mostly dry tonight and tomorrow. Winds, however will
be tricky to fcst for much of the period. They are expected to toggle
around to NWLY behind the front overnight, and then more NELY by to-
morrow afternoon. They will be light tomorrow, however, so they may
end up being more VRB thru the aftn/evening.

Outlook: Expect drier conditions to persist thru the weekend. Fog and/
or low stratus will be possible each morning in the usual mtn valleys 
and near lakes and rivers.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...JPT