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239 FXUS62 KILM 190434 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1234 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid summertime weather will continue with temperatures above normal for most of the week. Rain chances will increase late Thursday into Friday due to a slowly passing cold front. A strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S. will lead to a warming trend through the weekend into next week, with the potential for increased heat risk Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances may return mid next week. && .UPDATE... No big changes made to the latest public/marine forecasts but updated the aviation discussion to account for 06Z TAFs. Still don't anticipate the need for a Small Craft Advisory despite gusts to around 25 kt given seas likely to stay 5 ft or less, although will re-evaluate this with the full forecast package by 4 AM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Isolated seabreeze activity has favored the SC coast where greater instability has developed. And while not handled so well in CAMs it is still expected to diminish heading towards sunset. This scenario likely unfolds again early tomorrow as POPs also increases from the NW late in the day with the Piedmont trough strengthening and some mid level height falls start to impinge upon the area. Afternoon heat index values should top out in the upper 90s Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday morning. A line of showers and storms of questionable integrity should move towards the area Thursday night moving offshore by the morning. Activity should ignite along the sea breeze again Friday afternoon with maybe some enhancement if the boundary sticks around. Friday night should then be mostly dry as high pressure builds in and the column dries out. Highs amidst rain/clouds should peak near 90 with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Some activity may be possible with the sea breeze Saturday before we enter a dry period through early next week. Highs will be in the 90s, warming day to day. Heat indices will near 105F come Monday and Tuesday, and Heat Advisories may be needed. Rain chances may start to increase once more into mid next week as low pressure approaches the area. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in VFR through most of the 06Z TAF period. Main concern is possible restrictions from showers/storms early-mid aftn near the coastal terminals (KMYR/KCRE/KILM) and then inland (KFLO/KLBT) later this aftn. Showers/storms should then progress back east toward the coast later this eve/overnight ahead of a cold front. Even outside convection though gusts to around 25 kt are expected this aftn/eve, greatest mainly at KMYR/KCRE/KILM. Extended Outlook...A weak/stalled front will produce periods of sub-VFR conds in shwrs/tstms into Fri. Otherwise, brief restrictions due to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly through Sat, with building high pressure squelching convection early next week. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Bermuda High to remain in place through the period while Piedmont trough becomes better defined. Wind will remain out of the SW with a moderate gradient. A few gusts to 25kt still expected but no advisory planned. The 4-5 second wind wave will be the dominant one as the easterly swell energy will be mostly offshore. Thursday Night through Monday...Strong SW winds will be in place Thursday night ahead of a frontal passage. A few gusts could be near 25 kts, and should certainty increase a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. As high pressure builds in wind speeds will decrease to AOB 10 kts staying mostly S with an onshore push in the afternoon/evening. 4-5 ft waves will decrease to 2-3 ft Friday where they'll remain for the rest of the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...RJB MARINE...MBB/LEW