National Weather Service Raw Text Product

771 
FXUS64 KFWD 182336
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
636 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
  possible this evening along the Red River.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are forecast into early 
  next week with little chance for rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Evening/

North and Central Texas currently lie between a mid and upper
ridge across the Desert Southwest and a trough over the
Mississippi Valley. Though the ridge is the dominant feature, a
weak disturbance in the northwest flow aloft and a slow moving
front are enough to generate scattered thunderstorms near the Red
River this evening. Modest shear and an unstable environment will
allow some of these storms to become severe, with large hail and
damaging winds equal threats. It is possible that this convection
remains north of the Red River, and the southern extent may 
depend on how far south outflow boundaries make it. Will continue 
to keep chance POPs along the Red River with slight chance south 
through the Highway 380 corridor late this evening. Convection 
should dissipate around or shortly after midnight as instability 
wanes and subsidence from the ridge moves in from the west. 
Otherwise, isolated seabreeze storms across the southeast should 
dissipate in a few hours with the loss of surface instability.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 247 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Mid-level ridging will quickly dominate the CONUS by the end of
the week, bringing an end to our period of unsettled weather. The
forecast will remain seasonably warm, humid, and mostly dry. Lows
in the 70s and highs in the 90s are expected each day, with peak
heat indices in the mid 90s to around 103 degrees. Sea breeze 
storms will stay mainly to our south, but may approach our 
southeast Central Texas counties late this weekend into next week.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Thunderstorms this evening should remain north and east of all TAF
sites, but will need to keep an eye on development along the Red
River in the low-end chance that a storm pushes farther south than
currently anticipated. Convection will wane later this evening,
followed by a northward surge of MVFR stratus Thursday morning.
Clouds will scatter prior to midday Thursday, and wind speeds 
will be less than the past few days as south winds decrease to 
8-10 kts area-wide.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be needed this evening for the Red
River counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  95  78  96  77 /  10   5   0   0   0 
Waco                75  93  75  93  75 /   0   5   0   0   0 
Paris               75  91  74  91  75 /  30  10   0   5   0 
Denton              75  95  75  96  75 /  20   5   0   0   0 
McKinney            76  94  76  94  77 /  20   5   0   0   0 
Dallas              78  96  78  96  77 /  10   5   0   0   0 
Terrell             75  92  75  93  75 /  10   5   0   0   0 
Corsicana           76  93  76  94  76 /   5   5   0   0   0 
Temple              75  94  74  94  74 /   0   5   0   5   0 
Mineral Wells       74  96  74  96  74 /  10   5   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$