National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOHX Product Timestamp: 2025-06-14 05:50 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KOHX Products for 14 Jun 2025 View All AFD Products for 14 Jun 2025 View As Image Download As Text
980 FXUS64 KOHX 140550 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1243 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 - Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Greatest rain chances each afternoon and early evening. - Generally low risk for severe weather, but some of the storms will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 An upper-level trough continues to slowly track through the area with this feature currently centered near SE MO and the Mississippi River. This trough has kept scattered thunderstorms in the area all day, and radar shows a decaying line of showers/storms currently making their way through west TN. Do expect these storms to continue to weaken as they approach the TN River, but still won't rule out isolated showers/storms overnight. As the trough sticks around through the weekend, this will keep daily scattered thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Coverage will be dirunally-driven meaning that greatest coverage is expected during the afternoon and evening hours. There will be plenty of instability with CAPE values around 1500 J/kg, but shear and lapse rates will be lacking which keeps our severe weather threat low. PWATs will be high though at around 1.75 to 2 inches. So while organized severe weather is not expected either Saturday or Sunday, the typical thunderstorm hazards of heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds are all possible. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 A break from this activity doesn't look like it comes anytime soon as a troughing pattern and plenty of moisture continues into next week which keeps daily rounds of thunderstorms in the forecast through at least Friday. Storms continue to be dirunally-driven with highest storm chances each afternoon and evening. Still not seeing any obvious signs for organized severe weather with weak wind shear and poor lapse rates. But any pulse thunderstorm any day will be capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. A break from the persistent rain chances perhaps comes next weekend as models are showing a strong ridge building over the eastern US. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 A low pressure system is in the region which will lead to areas of showers and thunderstorms across Middle TN for the majority of the upcoming day. Rain chances remain medium to high from 12z through 00z, with chances for thunder. I've gone the route of advertising VCSH and timing out best TS chances with TEMPOs during the morning hours and PROB30s for the afternoon. I may end up using TEMPOs for the afternoon on the 12z cycle if timing can be more clear. Convection will decrease after sunset. Outside of convection, which is the biggest issue for this period, there's medium confidence for MVFR cigs during the morning hours, with a gradual trend back to VFR for the afternoon. Winds should be southwesterly at 7-10 kts. There's indication that we'll have additional cig issues tomorrow morning with MVFR/IFR potential (next TAF period). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 84 71 87 71 / 80 40 60 10 Clarksville 82 70 85 70 / 80 30 20 10 Crossville 80 66 80 66 / 90 70 70 30 Columbia 83 69 87 69 / 80 40 50 20 Cookeville 80 67 81 68 / 90 60 80 20 Jamestown 80 66 80 66 / 90 60 90 30 Lawrenceburg 82 69 86 68 / 80 50 60 20 Murfreesboro 85 69 87 69 / 80 40 60 20 Waverly 81 68 85 68 / 80 30 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Sizemore