National Weather Service Raw Text Product

090 
FXUS63 KOAX 122024
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
324 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible (0-14% chance)
  tonight near the Nebraska-South Dakota state line.

- On-and-off shower and thunderstorms chances (15-40% PoPs)
  Friday into early next week. Best severe-weather potential
  currently appears to be Saturday, Monday and Tuesday.

- Highs continue to hover around 90 into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The mid-lattitude jet has developed a bit of a ridge over the
Rockies and is producing some height anomalies over the 
Northern Plains and Nebraska. Texas's H5 height anomalies are 
negative thanks to an amplified trof in the subtropical jet. At 
the surface, temps are running a bit behind the toasty pace of 
Tuesday, but still above normal with widespread mid-80s as of
3:15 PM.

Today's shower and thunderstorm chances were tied in part to the
progged presence of the stationary front. That front has ended
up north and west of our forecast area and SPC rightfully 
removed the marginal (1 of 5) threat for severe weather from 
this CWA today. I have removed all but 5-15% PoPs from far 
northeast Nebraska from 10p to 3am tonight. Chances are we'll 
remain dry as temps slip into the mid- to lower-60s and the 
quick southerly winds relax to speeds of about 5 mph. 

.FRIDAY...

Two impulses are forecast to bring thunderstorm chances to the
mid-section of the CONUS on Friday with the deeper H5 low
ejecting out of TX passing just too far south to bring more than
an increase in cloud cover to areas south and east of Omaha and
Lincoln. 

Thunderstorms are possible in the extreme northwestern corner 
of the forecast area again on Friday evening as a shortwave 
pushes a cold front through the area. Forcing is best farther 
north leaving the forecast looking increasingly dry for this 
day, too. Have cut back PoPs to peak at 15-30% in the 
northwestern- most six counties after midnight Friday night. The
severe weather threat looks low as convection looks elevated in
nature and shear is mediocre at best. 

.SATURDAY...

Sunny skies and southerly winds will push temps above 90F for 
most. It may be the forecast's warmest day. 

Saturday's potential convection will be impacted by what 
remains of Friday's activity, but regardless of how blank of a 
canvas we start with, there's a chance of thunderstorms due to 
expected shortwaves riding the H5 ridge over the High Plains / 
Central Plains. A lee cyclone is anticipated to develop in the 
afternoon before pushing east. This side of the state may have 
to wait for the nocturnal jet to kick up another round of 
nocturnal convection. Some guidance tries to produce an MCS-like
structure moving north to south across Nebraska after dark. This
scenario would leave the severe threat mostly a wind-based one.

PWAT values are above climatological norms (NAEFS) but the
progressive nature of the wave should neutralize flash flooding
threats. 

.SUNDAY and EARLY NEXT WEEK...

The upper ridge begins to break down early next week turning the
H5 flow more zonal. This will allow small wiggles in the jet to
produce forcing for ascent and more showers as a result. Ample 
low- level moisture and instability is expected to be in place 
with dewpoints climbing into the mid-60s by Sunday and lingering
there through at least Tuesday. Occasional PoPs of 30-65% are 
warranted. Machine learning algorithms highlight Monday and 
Tuesday as having the best chances of severe weather. I'd 
personally tip the odds toward Monday as a jet streak points 
from Los Angeles to North Platte, NE; but there is plenty of 
uncertainty yet to be cleared up.

WPC designated Monday as having a marginal risk (1 of 4) of 
flash flooding, too, with the strong shortwave moving northwest
to southeast through the area. Guidance is producing an area of
moderate to heavy rainfall in the Great Plains, though 
placement is literally all over the map at this point. PWAT 
values are above normal, but not anomalously so. 

Regular bouts of showers/thunder/convection continue through day
seven of the forecast with 80s and 90s remaining the afternoon 
temps de jour. 

.BONUS...

We are in the heart of convective season and it is worth noting
that this year OAX has issued its least amount of severe 
thunderstorm warnings from May 1st to date (POR 2002-2025). 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions persist over the next 24 hours with breezy
southerly winds gusting up to 25 knots at times this afternoon
and relaxing to about 5 knots later this evening. The forecast
area is clear in its mid-section with some broken areas of
clouds pushing in from both the north and the south. These
clouds will have difficulty making additional inroads into the
area.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen