National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Product Timestamp: 2025-06-12 17:42 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KLCH Products for 12 Jun 2025 View All AFD Products for 12 Jun 2025 View As Image Download As Text
798 FXUS64 KLCH 121742 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Marginal risk of severe storms outlined across the forecast area today - Slight to moderate risk of excessive rain outlined across southeast Texas today - High rain chances will persist into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Showers and storms are once again building over central Texas this morning under a diffluent flow caused by an upper low. The upper disturbance is anticipated to gradually lift northeast today with the best lift over central and eastern TX lifting northeast in tandem. The convection near and west of the Houston Metro is anticipated to gradually shift east this morning and enter deep SE TX between sunrise and mid morning and then into LA around mid day, much like yesterday. Again today, the airmass remains very moist with PWATs around or above of 2" which is at or above the 90th percentile for the date. Very efficient rainfall producing storms may result. Over the past few days, higher rainfall totals have been fairly spotty. Forecast totals today in SE TX are between 1 and 2 inches, however if storms train, totals will increase quickly. Opted to hold off on the flood watch for SE TX being that antecendent conditions are marginal and the higher forecast totals are just east of our region. With that said, conditions will be monitored and a watch could be issued later if guidance increases much on rainfall totals. The upper low will slowly move northeast tonight and into Friday, however the weakness aloft will remain in place. Convection across the area will wax and wane tonight and into Friday. WPC has kept a marginal risk of excessive rain over the entire area through Friday as this occurs. By Saturday the upper low will be over the OH Valley, however a weakness aloft will remain in place, yet diminished. Diurnal heating is expected to be the main cause of convection. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 During the end of the weekend and into early next week convection is anticipated to be mainly diurnal driven and more typical of summer afternoon storms. The region will remain between 2 upper ridges, one centered over the Atlantic and the other over NW Mexico. Enough of a weakness aloft will remain in place for at least scattered storms. While the forecast doesn't explicitly indicate convection continuing to decrease into mid week, the upper ridge over Mexico may build into the area by mid week suppressing convection. This will serve to increase temperatures back above climo norms for the date as cloud cover and cooling storms decrease in coverage. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 With exception to terminals directly under or in the vicinity of a storm, mostly VFR to MVFR expected for the duration of the period. There will be periods of scattered to numerous showers and storms from now until the late evening hours. Winds will be mostly south or southwest, however direction may become erratic near storms. There may also be some terminals that see brief periods of reduced VIS due to fog in the predawn hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will persist through this week. Elevated thunderstorm chances will linger through the week and the upcoming weekend which may cause locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 89 73 91 / 50 80 20 70 LCH 75 88 78 90 / 50 70 20 60 LFT 75 88 76 89 / 30 80 20 70 BPT 75 87 77 90 / 40 70 20 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...87