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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDAFC Product Timestamp: 2013-10-04 13:00 UTC
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292 FXAK68 PAFC 041245 AFDAFC SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 500 AM AKDT FRI OCT 4 2013 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... PRESSURES AT THE CENTER OF THE WESTERN GULF SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO LEVEL AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT HAS ONCE AGAIN RUN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH EASES SLOWLY EASTWARD IN THE GULF WITH THE REMAINING SURFACE LOW AMALGAMATING INTO A BROAD COMPLEX CENTER UNDER THE UPPER LOW. WIND SPEEDS IN THE JET STREAK DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG-WAVE APPROACH 140 KT. ENTERING THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...A WEAKER JET STREAK CONTINUES PUSHING THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE GULF... ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY'S COASTAL JET HAS WOUND DOWN WITH THE ENERGY SHIFTING UNDERNEATH THE BACKSIDE JET BEHIND THE LOW BRINGING THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS FROM BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF. FURTHER OUT WEST...A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN BERING SEA OVER KAMCHATKA AND LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAND. .MODEL DISCUSSION... GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT LOW BECOMING COMPLEX IN THE GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKENING TODAY. THE AGREEMENT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A LARGE KAMCHATKA LOW SWINGS A FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA ONTO THE MAINLAND BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OVER THE BERING SEA LOOKS TO CONTROL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHOWERS IN THE GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER AND SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER OFFSHORE SETUP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS THE GULF LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY RETURNING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND USHERING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER. SOUTHWEST ALASKA...GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST IN THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVING INTO THE MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO WILL CROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY RAMPING UP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A THREE TO SIX HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .LONG TERM FORECAST... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE SHAPED BY THE UPPER LOW ENTERING THE BERING SEA. A SIGNIFICANT BASAL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL AS WELL AS BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WINDS TO THE COAST AND CHANNELED TERRAIN AREAS. THE PLANETARY LONG-WAVE NUMBER REMAINS HIGH...THEN TREND OF LOW TO MODERATE AMPLITUDE WAVES IN A FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ROLLING. .AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY PUBLIC...NONE MARINE...GALE 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 185 FIRE WEATHER...NONE MTL OCT 13
314 FXAK68 PAFC 041928 AFDAFC SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 500 AM AKDT FRI OCT 4 2013 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... PRESSURES AT THE CENTER OF THE WESTERN GULF SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO RISE AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT HAS ONCE AGAIN RUN OUT. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD IN THE GULF WITH THE REMAINING SURFACE LOW TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD COMPLEX CENTER UNDER THE UPPER LOW. WIND SPEEDS IN THE JET STREAK DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG-WAVE APPROACH 140 KT. ENTERING THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...A WEAKER JET STREAK CONTINUES DRIVING AN OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE GULF...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY'S COASTAL JET HAS WOUND DOWN WITH THE ENERGY SHIFTING DOWN THE BACKSIDE JET BEHIND THE LOW BRINGING THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS FROM BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF. FURTHER OUT WEST...A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN BERING SEA OVER KAMCHATKA AND LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAND. .MODEL DISCUSSION... GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT LOW BECOMING COMPLEX IN THE GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKENING TODAY. THE AGREEMENT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A LARGE KAMCHATKA LOW SWINGS A FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA ONTO THE MAINLAND BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OVER THE BERING SEA LOOKS TO CONTROL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHOWERS IN THE GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER AND SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER OFFSHORE SETUP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS THE GULF LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY RETURNING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND USHERING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER. SOUTHWEST ALASKA...GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST IN THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVING INTO THE MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO WILL CROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY RAMPING UP WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A THREE TO SIX HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .LONG TERM FORECAST... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE SHAPED BY THE UPPER LOW ENTERING THE BERING SEA. A SIGNIFICANT BASAL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL AS WELL AS BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WINDS TO THE COAST AND CHANNELED TERRAIN AREAS. THE PLANETARY LONG-WAVE NUMBER REMAINS HIGH...THEN TREND OF LOW TO MODERATE AMPLITUDE WAVES IN A FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ROLLING. .AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY PUBLIC...NONE MARINE...GALE 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 185 FIRE WEATHER...NONE MTL OCT 13
275 FXAK68 PAFC 051322 AFDAFC SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 500 AM AKDT FRI OCT 4 2013 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT. THE MID 970 MB LOW FORMED UNDER A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MUCH LARGER BROAD TROUGH SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. NEAR PEAK INTENSITY...THE SURFACE LOW IS ALREADY OCCLUDING AND SHIFTING BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH. AN OCCLUSION THEN WARM/COLD FRONTS RACE ACROSS THE BERING EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING FROM GALE FORCE SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO GALE FORCE WESTERLIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF YESTERDAY HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED INTO A WEAK CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN GULF. A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM IS POPPING OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. .MODEL DISCUSSION... GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD CONCERNING THE BERING SEA SYSTEM AND FRONTAL PROGRESSION. SOME SLIGHT POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ONCE THE LOW OCCLUDES AND FILLS BUT NO MAJOR FORECAST IMPLICATION. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM THE AKPEN/WEST COAST OF AK INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND GULF. ALL THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER WEAKEN THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MAINLAND IN SIMILAR FASHION WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED IT IS FROM THE PARENT LOW. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AROUND. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE COOK INLET REGION LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WHICH WILL CROSS THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES TO THE WEST AND BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVE OVERHEAD SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH PAST LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BUT THE NEXT REAL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A BEEFY SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL ESSENTIALLY CREATE ITS OWN BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT DIGS AND DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE SHORTWAVE WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY DEEPENING TOO MUCH GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GIVEN THE LOW TRACK UP INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHERN GULF...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DESCENDING FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE TO THE LOWER BOWL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH ASHORE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY WARMING EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIQUID BUT A FEW WET FLAKES HERE AND THERE ARE NOT OUT OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN THE BETHEL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING MORE SHOWERY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MAINLAND. A SECONDARY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF STRATIFORM RAIN LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. BEYOND THAT ANOTHER VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE LONG-WAVE AND AMPLIFY BRINGING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BRINGING A SOGGY START TO NEXT WEEK. BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY EXITING THE BERING THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE BERING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE THE WET PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING. .LONG TERM FORECAST... THE BERING SEA UPPER LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SPREAD SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER THE MAINLAND THEN BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES THROUGH THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. .AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY PUBLIC...NONE MARINE...GALE 172 173 175 177 178 179 180 181 185 FIRE WEATHER...NONE MTL OCT 13