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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-12-18 11:44 UTC
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456 FXUS64 KEWX 181144 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 544 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014 .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD VLIFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH NO IMPACT TO TAF SITES. SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING BACK TO IFR/LIFR. SHRA/TSRA END MID FRIDAY MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY WITH CIGS/VSBYS REMAINING IFR. NLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVAIL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/ ..PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A PLEASANTON TO GEORGETOWN LINE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 2 INCHES WITH LOCAL AREAS REACHING NEAR 3 INCHES SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PRAIRIES AND SLOWLY TAPERING LOWER INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF ENOUGH STORM TRAINING OCCURS. FOR THIS MORNING, LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR MAINLY THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND AREAS EAST. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOCALS SEEING DENSE FOG. FOG WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY RESIDING TOWARDS THE TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION BY TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS FAR AS WEATHER EVOLUTION TODAY AND OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES FROM SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT, AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW WILL AID MOIST SE FLOW INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH AN ELEVATED COOLER CORE POCKET WILL INCREASE BOTH SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS. VERTICAL TOTALS LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE 26-29C RANGE WITH IMPRESSIVE -2 TO -5 NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS COUPLED WITH 60-70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL RISK INITIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS RISK WILL DECREASE INTO EARLY MORNING AS BAROCLINIC ZONE FOCUSES FARTHER EAST. THE MAIN FOCUS OF IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE BLOSSOMING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. OF HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE THE INLAND COASTAL PRAIRIE COUNTIES WHERE HI-RES GUIDANCE AND SPC SSEO OUTPUT SUGGEST GREATEST RAIN TOTALS IN THE 2-3 INCH REALM COULD BE LOCATED. OVERALL GFS AND GFS-PARALLEL TRENDS HAVE ALSO FOCUSED IN THIS VICINITY WITH LESSER OVERALL AMOUNTS WEST OF HWY 281 AND AMOUNTS TAPERING LOWER TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH OR EAST, EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR COULD OCCUR AS MOISTURE FLUX BECOMES DECREASED BY BEING BLOCKED CLOSER TO THE COAST. HAVE PLACED GREATEST POPS IN DURING THE MIDNIGHT TO 6AM TIMEFRAME WITH A RAMP UP AND RAMP DOWN FOR THE PRE AND POST 3 HOUR TIME STEPS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL, ACTIVITY EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/ LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SLOW CLEARING WILL BE ONGOING BY LATE FRIDAY AND MORE SUN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. BY SUNDAY, YET ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO PIVOT OVER THE REGION BUT OVERALL COLUMN OF MOISTURE LIKELY CONTINUES TO BE TOO DRY FOR SHOWER SUPPORT AS PWATS WILL BE 0.5-0.7". INCREASED CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED HOWEVER AND THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING REINFORCING DRIER AIR AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR LOWS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. /ALLEN/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 54 59 45 58 / 20 90 80 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 54 59 45 58 / 20 90 80 10 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 57 62 44 60 / 20 90 70 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 51 57 40 56 / 10 80 70 10 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 54 65 43 61 / - 40 20 10 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 51 56 44 56 / 10 90 80 10 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 56 64 41 60 / 20 80 60 10 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 55 60 45 58 / 20 90 80 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 57 62 48 59 / 30 100 90 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 58 63 46 60 / 20 90 70 10 10 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 58 64 45 61 / 20 90 70 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15