IEM Daily Feature
Thursday, 20 September 2012

Improving chances

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 05:43 AM

This chart has been featured a number of times this summer season as it shows the chances that this year will become the warmest on record for Des Moines. The bottom charts shows that while we faltered some with some cool weather in August, the warm weather in September has boosted us back up to the best chances yet that this year will beat 1931 (the current warmest). The brown spaghetti lines represent all previous years appended onto this year until the end of the year and so represents scenarios if we have any reasonable repeat of previous years. Using these scenarios, 86% of previous years appended onto this one would result in 2012 being the warmest on record. These lines would also suggest that 2012 will remain warmer than 1931 until at least the first week of December.

Good = 26
Bad = 5

Tags:   2012