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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2016-04-26 18:53 UTC
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ACUS11 KWNS 261853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261853
OKZ000-TXZ000-262100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...NW AND W-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 261853Z - 262100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...RAPID INITIATION OF TSTMS WILL OCCUR ALONG A DRYLINE FROM
WRN OK INTO NW AND W-CNTRL TX BY MID-AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
DISCUSSION...RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ IS IN PLACE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW/W-CNTRL
TX...E OF A NEARLY STATIONARY AND WAVY DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM ALVA
OK SSWD TO SWEETWATER TX. ONE-MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. CINH CONTINUES TO
ERODE AS SFC TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S F. THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT
ACCOMPANYING AN IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NM IS SPREADING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS ATTM. AS THIS INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE...RAPID
TSTM INITIATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS SOON AFTER INITIATION WITH AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AS LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DATA ESTIMATE MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE. DESPITE
A SUBSTANTIAL MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER WINDS...A
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AND BE MAXIMIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY
LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN EVOLVE. EVENTUAL
CONSOLIDATION INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASING DMGG WIND THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL.
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK AND
NW/W-CNTRL TX IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 36989668 33879642 32069780 31189955 30840023 31050069
31570087 35169984 36369923 36999865 36989668