National Weather Service Raw Text Product

132 
FXUS64 KHGX 181144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE IN AND AROUND MOST OF THE SE TX TAF SITES.
HEAVIEST IMPACTED SITES CURRENTLY ARE SGR AND HOU. WITH ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD...LBX AND GLS SHOULD BE IMPACTED SOON.
SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT UTS AND CXO WITH THE LEAST IMPACTED
LOCATION PROBABLY CLL. NOT REALLY SURE WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SINCE A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY LASTS. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND 
VISIBILITIES WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER STORMS.  42 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ 

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE...HISTORIC FLOOD EVENT ONGOING. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN EFFECT FROM SLOW MOVING
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES REPORTED AND
STRUCTURES BEING FLOODED. UNFORTUNATELY BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT AREAS ALREADY HAVING RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL
MORE HOURS.

WORST CASE SCENARIO AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN OFF THE GULF
AND BEING FOCUSED ALONG E TO W BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF CONVECTION AND DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD AS WELL. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THROUGH TUESDAY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
FLOODING ALREADY ONGOING. DIFFICULT TO TIME THINGS BUT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL GENERALLY BE SLOW MOVING. CONCERN IS
THEY WILL OCCUR IN SIMILAR AREAS. HAVE HAD TO RAISE POPS WEDNESDAY
AS WELL AS MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER VORT LOBE PIVOTING AROUND UPPER
LOW LIKELY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REALLY DONT
DRY OUT UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST RIDGING AT SURFACE
AND ALOFT. 46

MARINE... 
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER COASTAL
AREAS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...CHAMBERS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS BRAZORIA
AND MATAGORDA WILL HAVE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE
PEAKING AROUND 4 FEET AT HIGH TIDES IN THE WARNING AREA AND AROUND
3.5 FEET IN THE ADVISORY AREA. AFTER THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE
PEAKING 2-3 PM WE WILL LIKELY SEE WATER LEVELS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL. SHOULD SEE
WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE SOME DURING THE DAY TODAY. 33 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  67  78  67  81 / 100  90  70  50  50 
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  68  77  67  82 /  90  90  80  40  70 
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  70  75  70  77 /  90  90  80  50  60 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND 
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO 
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42