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485
FXUS61 KBOX 050009 AMD
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. REORG AND COR AND ADDED DETAIL TEXT..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2001
...SEVERE STORM COMPARABLE TO OR WILL EXCEED THE BLIZZARD OF 78 FOR
SNE WITH 60 HR DURATION OF SNW AND MAX INTENSITY OF WORST CONDS 18Z
TUE-00Z WED AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HIGHLY LIKELY TO OCCUR
PARTS OF E MA COAST...
ALL PRODUCTS POSTED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE ON DELAYED PRODUCTS.
WE ARE COMFORTABLE WITH THE PRODUCTS AS NOW ISSUED...CONSIDERING AS
COMFORTABLE AS YOU CAN BE FOR SUCH EXCESSES. CONFIDENCE RATED AS ABV
AVG WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND NUMEROUS FCSTRS.
WHERE CAN THIS FCST BREAK DOWN? FEEL IP/S TRANSITION ZONE AND
DURATION OF EVENT INTO TUE NIGHT OR WED AM ARE POTENTIAL WEAK PARTS
OF THE FCST AND IF THE LOW IS 10MB WEAKER...THEN OFFICIAL BLIZ
CONDS WOULD PROBABLY NOT OCCUR. REALIZE THIS EXPRESSES CONFIDENCE ON
BLIZ CONDS OCCURRING AND HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE...BUT THIS IS AN
IMPRESSIVE SET UP HAVING TAKEN SRN STREAM ENERGY INTO ANOMOLOUS
BLOCK...BLV THIS HAS TO RESULT IN AN EXTREME EVENT.
SNE SHUD SEE A FADE OF STORM WED AM...SNOW QUITS NW TO SE THEN THE
WIND DIMINISHES.
SFALL: 1-3 FT XCPT MIX ZONE SE NEW ENG 7-14 TOTAL STORM BY 06Z WED.
WORST AXIS FORESEEN SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST NW OF A HFD-BOS
LN. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THIS IN FUTURE RUNS. SWD EXTENT
BACKLASH ACCUMS ARE DIFFICULT. WE HOPE WE HAVE THIS IN THE
BALLPARK (WITHIN 4 INCHES).
MODELS: WE HOPE NOT TO LET YOU DOWN ON THIS BUT HAVE CONSIDERABLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ETA ON HUGE EVENTS THO WE KNOW A SURPRISE
WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE.
PER HPC...ETA MODEL HAS BEEN EXCT ON BIG QPF NE USA N OF 40N
...BUT WOEFUL BUSTS DCA REGION..POSSIBLY BECAUSE BCS OF GULF
STREAM WALL SPINUP PBLM.
18Z ETA/12Z OUR PRIMARY FCST GUIDE
QPF: WE ARE GOING TO FCST A CT RVR VALLEY SHADOW GOING ONLY 1-2
WE THERE...UPSLOPE THO WATCH OUT. WE ARE GOING 3 TO 5 W.E
QPF E MASS. 3-5 QPF PVD-PYM-ORH-LWM-BVY-BOS-PYM.
DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT SE NEW ENG FOR A TIME LATE MON?
ALSO...IN THSE SYSTEMS...YOU GO THRU VARYING INTENSITY...WE
DONT SIT S+ CONSTANTLY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT 8 HR
DOWNTIME MIDDAY MONDAY AFTER INITIAL PUSH...BUT WATCH THE
SECOND AND LARGER EVENT LATE MON THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY TUE...
BLIZZARD WARNING: MA 4>7 13>16 AND NH 12 (MHT-LWM-ORH). REQUIREMENTS
FOR THIS DIRE PREDICTION ARE 3 OR MORE HRS <1/4MI
S+/BS AND G>30 KTS). 18Z ETA SAYS WE CAN INCLUDE
BOSTON...ITS ON THE CUSP WITH SLEET BUT WE ARE
GOING FOR WORST CASE AND EVENTUALLY BLV WE CAN
HIT THIS. ETA TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO WARM.
COMPARISON TO PREV BLIZZARDS IN A PNSBOS (PUBLIC INFO STMT) BY
STRAUSS.
BUFKIT: WE TOOK A LOOK AT SOME DETAILED TSECS OF TEMP AND AT BDL FOR
INSTANCE NOTED A 1C COOLING ON THE 18Z RUN AS COMPARED TO THE
12Z/4 RUN. THIS LEAVES AT 780 MB ABT 5 HRS OF +.7C 16-20Z.
ANOTHER COOLER RUN AND PRESTO ALL SNOW OR STG UVM COULD
COMPENSATE THERE.
HIGH WIND WARNING: MA 19 22>24 FOR MON AFTN THRU TUE.
WIND: FIRST PULSE 40-55KT 18Z-03Z MONDAY AFTN AND EVE THEN I THINK
IT CRANKS FROM THE NNE ON TUESDAY WITH SEVERE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WHERE >6 OF SFALL. 65 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE PYM-PVC TO
ACK. REFIRE A SECOND WIND MAX..POTENTIAL STRONGER 50-65 KT
TUESDAY. 18Z BUFKIT MINIMIM GUST TRANSFER MHT FOR ABT 9
CONSECUTIVE HRS 41-45KTS THIS IS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT AM A
A BLVER ON THIS OCCURING DOWN THE MERR RVR VLY AND ORH
AND THEN EXPOSED COASTAL REGION.
POWER OUTAGES: SCT PWR OUTAGES FROM WIND AND OR SNOW PROBABLE ORH TO
BOS AND PVD AND CC.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH: FOR POTENTIAL DESTRUCTIVE FLOODING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAYS HIGH TIDES. ANTICIPATING NNE WIND
DIMSHG AT 44013 (BOS BUOY 16 E OF LOGAN) TO 35
TO 45 KTS AT 12Z WED. ANTICIPATE 3-5 FT SURGES
AT HIGH TIDES BOTH TUE AND WED.
WH: BLV NEAR RECORD WAVE HTS PROBABLE 44013 AND POSSIBLY 44008 TOO
...THIS ADDS TO CONCERN FOR DAMAGING COASTAL FLOODING E MA COAST.
MAX WAVE HTS OF 30 TO 35 FT EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENT TUESDAY AT
BOS BUOY AND 30 TO 40 FT FOR 44008. WEDNESDAY LEFTOVR 20-25 FT
SEAS AND HIGHER ASTRO TIDE
HERES BOSTON TIDES
TIME ASTRO PREIDCTION WITHOUT SURGE AND WAVE
3/5 640 AM 10.2
727 PM 8.9
3/6 743 AM 10.6
829 PM 8.9
3/7 845 AM 11.0
927 PM 10.0
DRIFTS: PROVIDED WE RCD 2 FT OF SNOW AND THE WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH
FOR 12 HRS...BLV WE CAN GENERATE 6 TO 10 FT DRIFTS IN
PRONE REGION. NEED THE COMBO THO.
GWAVE: WATCH IT FOR EXCESSIVE MODULATATION OF THE QPF FIELDS
INCLUDING 4-5/HR SNOWFALL RATE IN SNOW REGION (MAYBE SOMETIME
MON) AND CUTBACK ON QPF IN SLEET REGION SE MA AND RI. TX FOR
COORD T0 LOUIS UCCELLINI ON POTENTIAL AND HAVE OFFERED ITS
POTENTIAL IN THIS PGH PER MY OWN CONSIDERATION. HAVE NOT
CONFIRMED A GWAVE WILL HAPPEN HERE.
BATTEN DOWN AND ROUND IT UP NOW. THIS IS GOING TO BE HUGE AND LONG
LASTING. WE WILL TRY TO GET A STMT OUT ON PREPAREDNESS NEEDS AND
COMPARISONS TO PAST BLIZZARDS SINCE 1978. OUR TAKE (TX RMT) IS THAT
THIS WILL B BLIZ OF 78 EVENT BUT FURTHER NORTHWEST
CAVEAT: SOMETHING GOES WRONG WITH THESE BIG STORMS EVERY TIME. DONT
KNOW YET WHERE IT WILL B...BUT CONFIDENT WE/RE ON TRACK.
SKYWARN STARTS HERE IN OFFICE 4AM MONDAY. A LONG SEIGE
CHH RAOB: 18Z RAOB IS IN. FURTHER INTERIM CHH RUNS SCHEDULED
06Z AND 18Z MON AND 06Z TUE.
RDF: DOES NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT ZFP WORDING... PLS DONT LOCK US
INTO RDF YET. JUST CANT GET IT DO WHAT WE WANT. EVENTUALLY IT WILL
THEN IT WILL PRODUCE PICTURES ETC. YOULL LIKE IT. IF YOU USE THIS
PRODUCT...WE WANT TO KNOW AND YOUR IMPRESSIONS.
SPSBOS: POSTED BY NEAL STRAUSS FOR PREPARATIONS THAT CAN ENHANCE LIFE
DURING POTENTIALLY HIGHLY ADVERSE WX. ONCE YOU LOSE POWER
OR ARE ISOLATED...TROUBLE BREWS. THIS IS NOT A CAT 3
HURRICANE BUT HARSH COLD AND SNOW CAN COMPOUND WHAT A WINTER
STORM LACKS IN FLOODING RAINS AND OR 100 KT WINDS.
ALTERNATE SOURCES OF ENERGY: BE PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES. DONT USE
CANDLES FOR LIGHT...CAUSES FIRE IF
KNOCKED OVR.
TRAVEL: NOT RECOMMENDED BY OUR OFFICE IN ALL SNOW REGION MONDAY-
TUESDAY THO THERE WILL B PRDS OF RECOVERY AS WE GO INTO
BANDED PCPN ALTERNATING LIGHT AND HVY. REMEMBER JUST A COUPLE
OF CARS IN ACCIDENTS CAN CLOG A ROAD AND IF ITS SNOWING
2/HR - CAN BE BAD NEWS AND BASICALLY NOT GETTING HOME.
WARMEST QPF RROUTE...COASTAL 95 MONDAY....BUT WATCH IT
WHEN YOU GET INTO CT IF YOU CATCH THE DRY SLOT RIGHT..
YOU GET HOME AOK.
ENVISION LONG DURATION OF AIRPORT CLOSURE AND FERRY TRANSPORT
SHUT DOWN.
AUTO SURVIVAL KITS: SUGGEST HAVING EXTRA CLOTHING AND WATER...PLUS
FLASHLIGHTS...BLANKETS...DONT RUN YOUR CAR IF
STALLED...AT LEAST NOT WITH WINDOWS CLOSED.
ROAD CREWS: ARDUOUS LONG DURATION EVENT...SFALL POSSIBLY LASTING 48
TO 60 HRS HOURS WITH POST STORM CLEANUP LASTING
THRU ALL OF WEDNESDAY INTO THRUSDAY.
STREET FLOODING: POSSIBLE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING PARTS
OF SE MA AND SRN RI ALONG OR 20 SE SE OF A PVD-PYM
LN IF MOSTLY RAIN. FRZN GROUND A PBLM.
RECOVERY: LATER WED THRU FRI.
ASOS: AFN AND BOS FIXED. AFN ASOS MAY GO BAD AGAIN BY MON MORNING
...BUT ASOS FIXES IN SNOW REGION NEXT 2 DAYS MAY BE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE.
LR: A NOTE...SUSPECT 1 OR POSSIBLY 2 MORE MDT OR GRTR SNOWSTORMS FOR
PARTS SNE BY 4/15. NAO STAYS NEG AND OTHER PATTERN INDICATORS
THAT OVERALL NORMAL WINTER TEMP PATTERN AND ACTIVE SRN STREAM
WITH SOME BLOCKING MAKES IT FAVORABLE AGAIN SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY
BTWN 3/14-21... HAVE NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND NOT TIME FOR
THIS NEXT 72 HRS.
FYI: I WORKED A STORM LIKE THIS IN MKE IN 1982... DOUBLE SHORT WAVE
ROTATOR...WAS IMPRESSIVE GRB TO LSE
.BOS...BLIZZARD WARNING NH 12 MA 4>7 12>16
WINTER STORM WARNING CT 2>4 RI 1>5...MA 2/3/8>11 17/18 NH 11
WXA TNGT AND MON AM MASS 19>24 RI 6/7 THEN WATCH FOR LATE
MON AFTN THRU TUE NIGHT FOR POTENTIAL LARGE BACKLASH.
CFA MA 7...14>16 19 22>24 TUE AND WED HIGH TIDES.
HIGH WIND WARNING MA 19 AND 22>24 MON AFTN THRU TUE WITH HIGH
WIND WARNING IMPLIED NE MA COAST IN BLIZ WARNING.
MARINE: STORM WARNING MON-TUE.
DRAG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 050009 AMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. REORG AND COR AND ADDED DETAIL TEXT..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2001
...SEVERE STORM COMPARABLE TO OR WILL EXCEED THE BLIZZARD OF 78 FOR
SNE WITH 60 HR DURATION OF SNW AND MAX INTENSITY OF WORST CONDS 18Z
TUE-00Z WED AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HIGHLY LIKELY TO OCCUR
PARTS OF E MA COAST...
ALL PRODUCTS POSTED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE ON DELAYED PRODUCTS.
WE ARE COMFORTABLE WITH THE PRODUCTS AS NOW ISSUED...CONSIDERING AS
COMFORTABLE AS YOU CAN BE FOR SUCH EXCESSES. CONFIDENCE RATED AS ABV
AVG WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND NUMEROUS FCSTRS.
WHERE CAN THIS FCST BREAK DOWN? FEEL IP/S TRANSITION ZONE AND
DURATION OF EVENT INTO TUE NIGHT OR WED AM ARE POTENTIAL WEAK PARTS
OF THE FCST AND IF THE LOW IS 10MB WEAKER...THEN OFFICIAL BLIZ
CONDS WOULD PROBABLY NOT OCCUR. REALIZE THIS EXPRESSES CONFIDENCE ON
BLIZ CONDS OCCURRING AND HOPEFULLY NOT OVERDONE...BUT THIS IS AN
IMPRESSIVE SET UP HAVING TAKEN SRN STREAM ENERGY INTO ANOMOLOUS
BLOCK...BLV THIS HAS TO RESULT IN AN EXTREME EVENT.
SNE SHUD SEE A FADE OF STORM WED AM...SNOW QUITS NW TO SE THEN THE
WIND DIMINISHES.
SFALL: 1-3 FT XCPT MIX ZONE SE NEW ENG 7-14" TOTAL STORM BY 06Z WED.
WORST AXIS FORESEEN SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST NW OF A HFD-BOS
LN. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THIS IN FUTURE RUNS. SWD EXTENT
BACKLASH ACCUMS ARE DIFFICULT. WE HOPE WE HAVE THIS IN THE
BALLPARK (WITHIN 4 INCHES).
MODELS: WE HOPE NOT TO LET YOU DOWN ON THIS BUT HAVE CONSIDERABLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ETA ON HUGE EVENTS THO WE KNOW A SURPRISE
WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE.
PER HPC...ETA MODEL HAS BEEN EXCT ON BIG QPF NE USA N OF 40N
...BUT WOEFUL BUSTS DCA REGION..POSSIBLY BECAUSE BCS OF GULF
STREAM WALL SPINUP PBLM.
18Z ETA/12Z OUR PRIMARY FCST GUIDE!
QPF: WE ARE GOING TO FCST A CT RVR VALLEY SHADOW GOING ONLY 1-2"
WE THERE...UPSLOPE THO WATCH OUT. WE ARE GOING 3 TO 5" W.E
QPF E MASS. 3-5" QPF PVD-PYM-ORH-LWM-BVY-BOS-PYM.
DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT SE NEW ENG FOR A TIME LATE MON?
ALSO...IN THSE SYSTEMS...YOU GO THRU VARYING INTENSITY...WE
DONT SIT S+ CONSTANTLY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT 8 HR
DOWNTIME MIDDAY MONDAY AFTER INITIAL PUSH...BUT WATCH THE
SECOND AND LARGER EVENT LATE MON THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY TUE...
BLIZZARD WARNING: MA 4>7 13>16 AND NH 12 (MHT-LWM-ORH). REQUIREMENTS
FOR THIS DIRE PREDICTION ARE 3 OR MORE HRS <1/4MI
S+/BS AND G>30 KTS). 18Z ETA SAYS WE CAN INCLUDE
BOSTON...ITS ON THE CUSP WITH SLEET BUT WE ARE
GOING FOR WORST CASE AND EVENTUALLY BLV WE CAN
HIT THIS. ETA TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO WARM.
COMPARISON TO PREV BLIZZARDS IN A PNSBOS (PUBLIC INFO STMT) BY
STRAUSS.
BUFKIT: WE TOOK A LOOK AT SOME DETAILED TSECS OF TEMP AND AT BDL FOR
INSTANCE NOTED A 1C COOLING ON THE 18Z RUN AS COMPARED TO THE
12Z/4 RUN. THIS LEAVES AT 780 MB ABT 5 HRS OF +.7C 16-20Z.
ANOTHER COOLER RUN AND PRESTO ALL SNOW OR STG UVM COULD
COMPENSATE THERE.
HIGH WIND WARNING: MA 19 22>24 FOR MON AFTN THRU TUE.
WIND: FIRST PULSE 40-55KT 18Z-03Z MONDAY AFTN AND EVE THEN I THINK
IT CRANKS FROM THE NNE ON TUESDAY WITH SEVERE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WHERE >6" OF SFALL. 65 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE PYM-PVC TO
ACK. REFIRE A SECOND WIND MAX..POTENTIAL STRONGER 50-65 KT
TUESDAY. 18Z BUFKIT "MINIMIM GUST TRANSFER MHT FOR ABT 9
CONSECUTIVE HRS 41-45KTS! THIS IS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT AM A
A BLVER ON THIS OCCURING DOWN THE MERR RVR VLY AND ORH
AND THEN EXPOSED COASTAL REGION.
POWER OUTAGES: SCT PWR OUTAGES FROM WIND AND OR SNOW PROBABLE ORH TO
BOS AND PVD AND CC.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH: FOR POTENTIAL DESTRUCTIVE FLOODING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAYS HIGH TIDES. ANTICIPATING NNE WIND
DIMSHG AT 44013 (BOS BUOY 16 E OF LOGAN) TO 35
TO 45 KTS AT 12Z WED. ANTICIPATE 3-5 FT SURGES
AT HIGH TIDES BOTH TUE AND WED.
WH: BLV NEAR RECORD WAVE HTS PROBABLE 44013 AND POSSIBLY 44008 TOO
...THIS ADDS TO CONCERN FOR DAMAGING COASTAL FLOODING E MA COAST.
MAX WAVE HTS OF 30 TO 35 FT EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENT TUESDAY AT
BOS BUOY AND 30 TO 40 FT FOR 44008. WEDNESDAY LEFTOVR 20-25 FT
SEAS AND HIGHER ASTRO TIDE!
HERES BOSTON TIDES
TIME ASTRO PREIDCTION WITHOUT SURGE AND WAVE!
3/5 640 AM 10.2
727 PM 8.9
3/6 743 AM 10.6
829 PM 8.9
3/7 845 AM 11.0
927 PM 10.0
DRIFTS: PROVIDED WE RCD 2 FT OF SNOW AND THE WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH
FOR 12 HRS...BLV WE CAN GENERATE 6 TO 10 FT DRIFTS IN
PRONE REGION. NEED THE COMBO THO.
GWAVE: WATCH IT FOR EXCESSIVE MODULATATION OF THE QPF FIELDS
INCLUDING 4-5"/HR SNOWFALL RATE IN SNOW REGION (MAYBE SOMETIME
MON) AND CUTBACK ON QPF IN SLEET REGION SE MA AND RI. TX FOR
COORD T0 LOUIS UCCELLINI ON POTENTIAL AND HAVE OFFERED ITS
POTENTIAL IN THIS PGH PER MY OWN CONSIDERATION. HAVE NOT
CONFIRMED A GWAVE WILL HAPPEN HERE.
BATTEN DOWN AND ROUND IT UP NOW. THIS IS GOING TO BE HUGE AND LONG
LASTING. WE WILL TRY TO GET A STMT OUT ON PREPAREDNESS NEEDS AND
COMPARISONS TO PAST BLIZZARDS SINCE 1978. OUR TAKE (TX RMT) IS THAT
THIS WILL B BLIZ OF 78 EVENT BUT FURTHER NORTHWEST!
CAVEAT: SOMETHING GOES WRONG WITH THESE BIG STORMS EVERY TIME. DONT
KNOW YET WHERE IT WILL B...BUT CONFIDENT WE/RE ON TRACK.
SKYWARN STARTS HERE IN OFFICE 4AM MONDAY. A LONG SEIGE!
CHH RAOB: 18Z RAOB IS IN. FURTHER INTERIM CHH RUNS SCHEDULED
06Z AND 18Z MON AND 06Z TUE.
RDF: DOES NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT ZFP WORDING... PLS DONT LOCK US
INTO RDF YET. JUST CANT GET IT DO WHAT WE WANT. EVENTUALLY IT WILL!
THEN IT WILL PRODUCE PICTURES ETC. YOU'LL LIKE IT. IF YOU USE THIS
PRODUCT...WE WANT TO KNOW AND YOUR IMPRESSIONS.
SPSBOS: POSTED BY NEAL STRAUSS FOR PREPARATIONS THAT CAN ENHANCE LIFE
DURING POTENTIALLY HIGHLY ADVERSE WX. ONCE YOU LOSE POWER
OR ARE ISOLATED...TROUBLE BREWS. THIS IS NOT A CAT 3
HURRICANE BUT HARSH COLD AND SNOW CAN COMPOUND WHAT A WINTER
STORM LACKS IN FLOODING RAINS AND OR 100 KT WINDS.
ALTERNATE SOURCES OF ENERGY: BE PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES. DONT USE
CANDLES FOR LIGHT...CAUSES FIRE IF
KNOCKED OVR.
TRAVEL: NOT RECOMMENDED BY OUR OFFICE IN ALL SNOW REGION MONDAY-
TUESDAY THO THERE WILL B PRDS OF RECOVERY AS WE GO INTO
BANDED PCPN ALTERNATING LIGHT AND HVY. REMEMBER JUST A COUPLE
OF CARS IN ACCIDENTS CAN CLOG A ROAD AND IF ITS SNOWING
2"/HR - CAN BE BAD NEWS AND BASICALLY NOT GETTING HOME.
WARMEST QPF RROUTE...COASTAL 95 MONDAY....BUT WATCH IT
WHEN YOU GET INTO CT!!! IF YOU CATCH THE DRY SLOT RIGHT..
YOU GET HOME AOK.
ENVISION LONG DURATION OF AIRPORT CLOSURE AND FERRY TRANSPORT
SHUT DOWN.
AUTO SURVIVAL KITS: SUGGEST HAVING EXTRA CLOTHING AND WATER...PLUS
FLASHLIGHTS...BLANKETS...DONT RUN YOUR CAR IF
STALLED...AT LEAST NOT WITH WINDOWS CLOSED.
ROAD CREWS: ARDUOUS LONG DURATION EVENT...SFALL POSSIBLY LASTING 48
TO 60 HRS HOURS WITH POST STORM CLEANUP LASTING
THRU ALL OF WEDNESDAY INTO THRUSDAY.
STREET FLOODING: POSSIBLE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING PARTS
OF SE MA AND SRN RI ALONG OR 20 SE SE OF A PVD-PYM
LN IF MOSTLY RAIN. FRZN GROUND A PBLM.
RECOVERY: LATER WED THRU FRI.
ASOS: AFN AND BOS FIXED. AFN ASOS MAY GO BAD AGAIN BY MON MORNING
...BUT ASOS FIXES IN SNOW REGION NEXT 2 DAYS MAY BE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE.
LR: A NOTE...SUSPECT 1 OR POSSIBLY 2 MORE MDT OR GRTR SNOWSTORMS FOR
PARTS SNE BY 4/15. NAO STAYS NEG AND OTHER PATTERN INDICATORS
THAT OVERALL NORMAL WINTER TEMP PATTERN AND ACTIVE SRN STREAM
WITH SOME BLOCKING MAKES IT FAVORABLE AGAIN SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY
BTWN 3/14-21... HAVE NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND NOT TIME FOR
THIS NEXT 72 HRS.
FYI: I WORKED A STORM LIKE THIS IN MKE IN ~1982... DOUBLE SHORT WAVE
ROTATOR...WAS IMPRESSIVE GRB TO LSE!
.BOS...BLIZZARD WARNING NH 12 MA 4>7 12>16
WINTER STORM WARNING CT 2>4 RI 1>5...MA 2/3/8>11 17/18 NH 11
WXA TNGT AND MON AM MASS 19>24 RI 6/7 THEN WATCH FOR LATE
MON AFTN THRU TUE NIGHT FOR POTENTIAL LARGE BACKLASH.
CFA MA 7...14>16 19 22>24 TUE AND WED HIGH TIDES.
HIGH WIND WARNING MA 19 AND 22>24 MON AFTN THRU TUE WITH HIGH
WIND WARNING IMPLIED NE MA COAST IN BLIZ WARNING.
MARINE: STORM WARNING MON-TUE.
DRAG