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472 FXUS64 KSJT 190621 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 121 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a low chance of thunderstorms tonight, mainly over the Big Country, which could produce damaging wind gusts. - A dry forecast with slightly warmer than normal temperatures will prevail for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 After a few runs this morning where CAMs were pretty anemic with any chances for convective development, latest HRRR has shown the possibility of some redevelopment along the dryline just northwest of the area again this evening. Some of this may slide east into the central and northern Big Country and will continue the slight chance to chance POPs up there. Again, given the instability and shear, if a storm can develop some locally gusty winds and hail up to about the size of a quarter will be possible. After tonight, dry for tomorrow. Highs not much different than where they are today with highs in the mid and upper 90s with lows tonight in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The long term period will consist of slightly above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. The upper level ridge will be centered over our area early Friday before it starts to move off to the east, parking itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. by Sunday. At the surface, we'll have breezy south/southeast winds, with the strongest gusts expected Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Western portions of our forecast area are currently looking at a medium chance (30-60%) for wind gusts over 40 mph this weekend. The dryline and higher precipitation chances will remain well to our west for the next week. We could still see an isolated warm air advection shower at some point next week, but overall, chances will remain low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 A brief round of MVFR ceilings is expected to develop early this morning across KBBD, KJCT, and KSOA, and potentially as far north as KSJT. While an isolated thunderstorm could affect KABI overnight and bring in MVFR conditions, the potential is too low to mention at this time. Breezy southeast to south winds will redevelop after 14Z this morning, with gusts up to 25 KTS possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 95 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 95 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 94 71 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 97 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 93 71 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 93 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...TP