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308 FXUS64 KBMX 160532 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1232 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 951 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025 Activity across the area will continue to weaken through the early night, with patchy fog potentially developing in areas across the south that received rain through the evening. Monday, diurnally driven activity is expected again, increasing in coverage in the early afternoon through the early night. Instabilities will be 2000-3000 J/kg with PW values near 1.8 inches. Shear and wind profile is weak across much of the area so would expect strong winds and small hail in the stronger thunderstorms and heavy rain in any thunderstorm. Slow moving or training storms may cause a localized flooding threat, especially in areas that received high rainfall totals in the past couple of days. A weak trough will bring an increase in mid and upper level winds beginning Monday night through Tuesday. Instabilities will be higher Tuesday afternoon, with low level winds increasing in strength from the southwest and PW values increasing to over 2.2 inches. The coverage of thunderstorms Tuesday may be greater than the past couple of days, with the same threats as Monday afternoon. With the coverage of storms and plenty of cloud cover, max temperatures each afternoon will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. However, the moisture will allow for soupy air and heat indices to reach the upper 90s in many places before any thunderstorm development. Once thunderstorms work through an area, the heat indices and temperatures should be much lower. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 951 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025 Tuesday night through Wednesday night, the area will have southwesterly flow prevail with low level moisture and warm air over the area and a diurnal pattern with showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon and weakening by the early night. Plenty of instability and weak shear will allow for storms to build and produce gusting winds and small hail. PW values are max for this time of year, so heavy rainfall totals will be possible in any storm, with localized flooding likely in any training storms. Tuesday night through Wednesday night, a low pressure will develop across the northern plains and move east. Models are a smidge more in agreement tonight than last night with the low passing just south of the Great Lakes, and swinging a boundary through the state Thursday. The timing of the boundary will allow for scattered activity through the morning, with thunderstorms again in the afternoon. The low should be far enough north though, that the best forcing will remain north of the area. Will not advertise threats much different than any other summer time diurnally developing convection at this point. This activity should weaken after sunset Thursday night. Friday, the boundary should stall over the southern half of the state. Northerly flow behind the boundary will keep lower moisture and instabilities over the northern half of the area, with the most likely coverage of afternoon thunderstorms over the southern areas. Depending on how far south the boundary makes it may depend on how much of the area can see convection. By Saturday, high pressure will build over the area. Though low level flow will be slow to return to a southerly direction thanks to the location in the high, there should be diurnally driven thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Each day, there is plenty of moisture for heat indices to feel like the upper 90s, especially in areas across the west and the south. Behind the front on Friday through the end of the weekend, heat indices may rise into the triple digits each afternoon. 24 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025 Isolated showers overnight and through the early morning will yield to more scattered diurnal thunderstorms early Monday afternoon and lasting through the early night. Due to uncertainties in timing of any convection, left PROB30 and VCSH in for now. There is enough low level moisture for patchy fog development and/or low clouds through sunrise Monday. Tried to show a trend to at least MVFR at each TAF site except for KMGM which may drop down to IFR visibilities due to the recent rains Sunday evening. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values are forecast to remain above 50 percent for the next several days as very moist air mass remains in place over the region. Daily rain chances will remain elevated as well. 20 ft winds will be from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph through at least Wednesday, transitioning to a more westerly direction by Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 69 87 69 / 70 50 80 20 Anniston 88 71 86 71 / 60 40 80 20 Birmingham 88 71 86 72 / 60 50 80 20 Tuscaloosa 89 73 87 73 / 70 50 80 10 Calera 88 72 86 72 / 60 40 80 20 Auburn 88 72 87 72 / 50 30 70 20 Montgomery 90 72 90 73 / 60 30 80 20 Troy 90 71 89 72 / 60 20 80 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24