National Weather Service Raw Text Product

892 
FXUS64 KMEG 131916
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
216 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
  
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  weekend. The chances for severe thunderstorms appears limited,
  but strong winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated
  to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat
  indices will prevail at or above 100 late next week.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Active weather will remain in place across the Midsouth for much of 
the next 7 days, along with near to above normal temperatures and 
very humid air. 

Afternoon satellite and radar data clearly show the slow moving mid-
level cyclone over SW Missouri. This feature will gradually advance 
east toward the Ohio Valley over the next 12-24 hours. As it does 
so, bands of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
progress through the region, slowly moving toward the E/NE. The 
accompanying airmass surrounding the low is characterized by 
abundant moisture with PW values in excess of 2 inches in areas 
along with aoa 35 kts of deep layer shear. The greatest coverage in 
activity will coincide with peak diurnal heating and there could be 
sufficient instability in place for a few storms to become strong to 
possibly severe at times. Main concerns given the parameters in 
place would be damaging wind gusts and locally heavy downpours. 

In the coming days, mid-level weakness will remain in place from 
portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower MS River Valley 
between ridges across the SW and SE US. This will allow occasional 
shortwaves to work their way into the area from NW to SE and with 
each one will come the potential for additional showers and 
thunderstorms. There could be some MCS potential as well, but for 
the time being that threat looks a little greater to the west of the 
forecast area. 

By late week, while it doesn't look completely dry, it appears that 
H500 ridging will gradually fill across the area and begin to expand 
northward. This would likely limit rain chances further and allow 
temperatures to climb. Given Td values in the 70s F, heat indices 
are likely to go above 100 at times. This will correspond to 
frequent HeatRisk levels of moderate to major across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Highly variable flight conditions (VFR to IFR) expected across 
area terminals through the end of the period. This is being 
influenced by a mid-level area of low pressure that is slowly 
moving east in the vicinity of the TN Valley. This area of counter
clockwise rotation will provide frequent periods of low clouds 
along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday. Sfc winds will generally remain out of the S/SW up to 
10 kts with higher gusts expected during the daytime hours at 
KMEM/KJBR. 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...67
AVIATION...67