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302 FXUS64 KMEG 131717 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. The chances for severe thunderstorms appears limited, but strong winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. - Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat indices will prevail at or above 100 late next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 A slow-moving upper low will remain our primary weather maker through Saturday. Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed the upper low centered over SW MO, but with several constituent shortwaves ahead of the main trough axis that extended south into east TX. Rainfall will remain possible just about anytime over the next couple days, but greatest coverage of rainfall will be associated with shortwave passages and daytime heating. Midlevel lapse rates around 5 C/km and PWAT around 2.25 inches will significantly limit the potential for large hail today. But daytime MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, DCAPE near 900 J/kg and deep layer shear to 35 kt will continue to present a risk for strong winds. Given the high PWAT values, flash flooding will remain a concern where storms train. Similar conditions are expected Saturday, but east of the MS River given an eastward position shift of upper trough axis. The upper trough will lift to the upper OH River Valley on Sunday, as our attention turns to a shortwave trough diving southeast from MO. This feature will likely be convectively-aided by a storm complex rounding the backside of large height ridge centered over NM. Given the complex setup of this shortwave, differences understandingly appear in the global model solutions. An any case, PWAT values will exceed 2 inches over the Midsouth on Sunday, aided by mid 70s dewpoints. It shouldn't take much kinematics to initiate showers and thunderstorms given the amount of moisture and convective instability Sunday afternoon. The midweek passage of a progressive upper trough through the Great Plains and middle to upper MS River Valley will likely bring a weak cold front into the Midsouth Wednesday night into early Thursday. Prefrontal moisture pooling under shortwave ridging will aid in daytime heat indices approaching 100 through the Midsouth Tuesday and Wednesday. Following this trough passage, the western U.S. upper ridge will expand eastward, resulting in daytime highs in the lower to mid 90s over the Midsouth late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Highly variable flight conditions (VFR to IFR) expected across area terminals through the end of the period. This is being influenced by a mid-level area of low pressure that is slowly moving east in the vicinity of the TN Valley. This area of counter clockwise rotation will provide frequent periods of low clouds along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Sfc winds will generally remain out of the S/SW up to 10 kts with higher gusts expected during the daytime hours at KMEM/KJBR. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...67