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467 FXUS63 KLBF 120914 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 414 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today, with wind and hail the primary concerns across all of western and north central Nebraska. - A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Friday, with wind and hail the primary concerns across all of western and north central Nebraska. - Another Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday across all of western and north central Nebraska, with wind and hail remaining the primary concerns. - Near to above average temperatures and near daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 413 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 The low pressure system and front remain across central Nebraska today. Warm air advection and moisture advection from the south set up another day of above average temperatures and modest dewpoints across the region. Highs today climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, with dewpoints climbing into the 60s across the region. Overnight CAM guidance suggests around 2500-3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE, along with around 20-30 kts of deep layer shear. Storms are expected to initiate in the afternoon, tracking east throughout the evening. Given the supportive moisture and instability, with modest shear, a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in place across all of western and north central Nebraska today. The main threats remain large hail and damaging wind gusts with the stronger cells. The set up remains unchanged for Friday, as another day of warm temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s sets up across western Nebraska. The low pressure system and front remain across Nebraska, providing a continuing source of lift across the region. CAMs suggest around 3000-3500 J/kg building across western Nebraska prior to convection. The main difference in the forecast is the slightly stronger wind shear Friday afternoon and evening, particularly the recent uptick in low level shear during the late afternoon and evening. Conditions appear favorable for potential MCS development across western Nebraska tracking into central Nebraska during the evening. With this set up, the main severe weather concerns are damaging wind gusts, especially if the linear convection is realized, as well as large hail. However, with the enhanced low level flow, cannot rule out the potential for a tornado in western Nebraska. With this set up in place, the SPC keeps the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across western Nebraska, mostly along and west of Highway 83, with a Marginal Risk covering most of the eastern portions of the County Warning Area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 413 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 The weekend starts off with above average temperatures expected across the region, currently with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. These highs still sit on the lower end of guidance, so would not be surprised to see temperatures trend warmer in the following forecast cycles. These higher temperatures are likely to continue into Monday. Along with the high temperatures, near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region. While severe weather threat is being assessed for the entire period, will be worth keeping an eye on Saturday at this time, as there is a Marginal Risk for severe weather across all of western and north central Nebraska. Again, the main concerns remain wind and hail. By Tuesday, an upper level trough is expected to track across the Rocky Mountains, which should eventually eject the low pressure system and front out of the region. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected as this system is ejected out of the region. As cool air advection develops in the wake of the trough, temperatures are expected to return to near normal by mid week. However, much will depend on the placement of the trough. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A low pressure system and cold front is located across the Nebraska Sandhills, providing showers and thunderstorms this morning. May see some brief reductions to MVFR ceilings under rain showers, however, not expecting long lasting, if any impacts to KLBF or KVTN overnight. Will be monitoring winds overnight, as the nearby low may create more gusty conditions than forecast. Expecting LLWS concerns at both terminals overnight, as the low level jet tracks across the region. While conditions remain VFR throughout the day, winds are expected to be gusty, and the nearby low may cause more shifting winds than current guidance suggests. More showers and thunderstorms are expected again in the late afternoon into the evening, possibly beyond the current TAF period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...Richie