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908 FXUS62 KCHS 120735 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 335 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will affect the area through the weekend while high pressure remains offshore. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, ridging will continue to be centered from just off the east coast of FL and extending into the forecast area and the Southeast. At the surface, the subtropical high over the Atlantic will drive the summer-like pattern as it extends back to the west and into the area. The morning will start off with isolated to scattered coastal showers from the Beaufort County coast up through the Charleston area. These showers will be developing within subtle convergence boundaries that show up on radar. These showers will move relatively slow to the northeast within the weak steering flow, and could drop a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall. This activity should dissipate by mid morning and attention will then turn to afternoon convection. Convection should start developing along the sea breeze in the early afternoon and gradually shift inland into the evening. Overall, the best coverage is expected inland of the coast especially by late afternoon and the evening. Model soundings aren't particularly impressive showing little to no shear and weak DCAPE values. MLCAPE looks to be in the 1,000-1,500 J/kg range. The overall severe threat is quite low, but we could still see a strong to marginally isolated severe storm where boundary interactions can work to enhance updrafts. Storm motion will be very slow, on the order of 5-10 knots. This means there will be a threat of locally heavy rainfall and possibly a few instances of minor flooding. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low 90s in most places. This evening and tonight: Afternoon convection should shift inland through the evening and we should be pretty much convection-free by the late evening. Overnight, we will see the focus for showers and thunderstorms shift to the SC coast and the adjacent coastal waters. There are no significant concerns for fog at this time. Lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The forecast area will remain on the backside of high pressure at the surface and aloft late week into the weekend. Diurnally- driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, with coverage highest in the afternoon and evening. Shortwave energy rotating through the region at times could provide additional focus for convective development. Organized severe weather is not expected, but a couple stronger storms are possible, as is typical for this time of year. Highs will be seasonable in the upper 80s to around 90, but heat indices will likely exceed triple digits in many spots over the weekend. Values are held below Heat Advisory criteria. Lows will be in the 70-75 range, except a bit higher at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ridging will persist during the early to middle of next week, with a shortwave trough to pass by to the north early in the period. The surface will feature high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, especially during peak heating. Temperatures will be warming, and combined with higher humidity, heat indices are currently forecast to approach or exceed 105F, possibly even close to Heat Advisory criteria of 108F in spots. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. There are a few concerns through about 8-9am including coastal showers and some fog and stratus. Coastal showers through the mid morning will primarily be a concern for KJZI. The main time period for showers in the vicinity at KJZI will be between 6-10 am. It is still unclear if there will be direct impacts so we have not added to the TAF at this time. Concerning fog and stratus over the next few hours, it appears the best chances will remain inland of the terminals. For afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances, model guidance suggests the best chances will be inland of the TAF sites. Therefore, we have not included any mention of thunder in the TAF's. Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: High pressure to the east in the Atlantic will drive southerly onshore flow across the local waters through the period. Wind speeds should top out around 15 knots this afternoon and evening along the land/sea interface with the sea breeze. Seas are forecast to average 2-3 feet. Friday through Tuesday: Marine conditions are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Southerly flow will persist with speeds 15 knots or less. Seas will average 2-3 feet, with some occasional 4 footers in the outer portions of the waters. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...ETM LONG TERM...ETM AVIATION...BSH/ETM MARINE...BSH/ETM