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106 FXUS65 KPUB 120514 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1114 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - One or two storms should push onto the plains this evening. - A few strong storms possible over the plains tomorrow afternoon. - A drying trend with above normal temperatures for the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 201 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Currently, and into this evening.... Scattered storms will continue to slowly intensify as they push southeast over the region. Based on latest guidance, a few storms will push onto the plains later today, and with dewpts in the 50s farther east, one or two of these storms will persist and could be on the stronger side, especially over the northeast sections of the southeast Colorado plains. Per SPC meso page, deep shear is pretty much non-exisitant, but there is some CAPE out on the plains given the 50s dwpts. Storms over the higher terrain will primarily be a ltg threat. Tonight... One or two storms may be over the far eastern plains late this evening, but anticipate all storms should be finished prior to midnight. Min temps towards sunrise should be in the U50s/L60s plains with 40s mainly in the higher terrain. Tomorrow into tomorrow night... Scattered storms will be over the region by later tomorrow afternoon and evening. Shear will continue to be weak (20 knts deep shear) but will be a bit stronger than today, while CAPE values will be in the 750-1500 range over the plains, especially far eastern plains. This will allow for a few stronger high based storms tomorrow that will be capable of some marginal svr hail and gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, expect another warm day similar to today, with temps maybe a degree or two warmer. For tomorrow evening, storms will likely be finished over the plains prior to midnight. \/Hodanish && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 For Friday...generally weak westerly flow continues across the Rockies, with another wave translating across the Northern Tier supporting isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection. Again, sounding profiles support higher based storms, save for the far eastern plains, where enough low level moisture and just enough shear may be in place to support stronger storms late Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Friday to be similar to previous days with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, into the 70s to low 80s for the high valleys and in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Saturday-Tuesday...Upper level ridging remains progged to build back across the Rockies for the weekend. Operational and ensemble model data support much drier air moving across the region within generally weak southwest flow aloft across the region. This will lead to decreasing chances of diurnal showers and storms through the weekend, with any storms that can develop being higher based. Temperatures into early next week to remain above seasonal norms with highs the upper 80s to upper 90s across the Plains, and in the 60s to low 80s across the higher terrain, with lows in the 50s to lower 60s across the plains and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Models then continue to differ on the location and amplitude of an upper trough trying to break down the ridge into the middle of next week, leading to uncertainty in temperatures and precipitation chances. NBM data does support a slow decrease in temperatures and a slight uptick in convection for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Winds will shift from the east at KPUB at the beginning of the TAF period before going light and variable overnight. KCOS may also see winds shift out of the east or southeast but speeds will be under 10 kts. Otherwise, expect light and variable winds at KALS with clearing skies overnight at all three terminals. A weather disturbance will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Thursday with probabilities worthy of a prob30 in all three terminals in the roughly 21 to 01z timeframe. Gusty erratic winds up to 30-40 kts and brief light to moderate rainfall with VFR cigs will be the primary risks. Isolated stronger cells could produce some small hail at KCOS and KPUB, though odds look too low at this point for inclusion in the TAFs. Winds will be dominated by outflows in the evening though they should settle towards typical drainage winds tomorrow night. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH/MW AVIATION...KT