National Weather Service Raw Text Product

012 
FXUS63 KGID 120556
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1256 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scaled back precipitation chances tonight through Thursday
  night to more limited area of south central Nebraska. 

- Very warm through the weekend/early next week with almost
  daily shower/storm chances though actual fine details are not
  really identifiable at this point.

- Slight cooler mid-next week with the passage of a short wave
  trough and that should bring slightly more organized rain 
  chances by Tuesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Very warm and dry across south central and north central Kansas
this afternoon with temperatures generally around 90 degrees (give 
or take) and a mostly steady south/southwest breeze. Dewpoints have 
mixed out some with patch of drier moving up from Kansas and that 
has helped keep conditions a bit better even with the heat. A weak 
frontal boundary remains mostly stationary across northern Nebraska 
and down into northeast Colorado. This front, when paired with a 
shortwave moving across South Dakota, triggered showers and an 
isolated thunderstorm across the Nebraska Sandhills but those have 
largely dissipated as they moved east. 

As mentioned in the key messages, have lowered precipitation chances
and coverage for tonight through Thursday night. While we do expect
showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop along the front this 
evening in northern/western Nebraska, there is no push of the front, 
not to mention 10-11C H700 temperatures. That precipitation will 
drift off the front and weaken, as it moves into drier air. Can't 
rule out some isolated showers/storms northwest of a Greeley to 
Lexington line, but its probably going to "look" a lot more like 
rain than it will actually rain. Most of Thursday will be dry as 
well with another small risk for showers and thunderstorms near the 
weak boundary to the west and north again, and therefore lower end 
precipitation chances are in the forecast for roughly the same area. 
There might be a few more high clouds tomorrow holding temperatures 
back from today a couple degrees, but its essentially very warm with 
more humidity on Thursday. 

Thursday night and Friday, another weak short wave or two will move 
through the westerly flow. With the front a little farther south, 
though weak, the area will see 20-40% thunderstorm chances again.
A locally strong/marginally severe storm is possible but it is not 
expected to be widespread or particularly intense. The far 
west/southwest is currently clipped with slight risk of 
thunderstorms Friday. 

For the weekend, the forecast may be evolving with time. There is 
uncertainty about how precipitation chances will develop (and where) 
and not much to latch onto for definitive outcomes. The forecast 
will have low-end chances for showers thunderstorms throughout but 
its certainly not great rain chances. With daily highs in the lower 
90s, dewpoints in the 60s, its just a very warm, typical mid-June 
Father's Day weekend. 

Ensembles continue to break down/flatten the ridge on Monday, 
followed by a shortwave Tuesday and Wednesday. As that happens, the 
temperatures will slip back to the 80s and thunderstorm chances 
return to the forecast. Its too early to pinpoint any specific 
outcome next week, and its probably not a "rain-out", but its 
reasonable to assume a "decent" chance for showers and thunderstorms 
both days next week across the forecast area. The forecast reflects 
that, and its June so a risk for stronger storms/spotty heavy rain 
can't be ruled out. 

Looking beyond the 7-day forecast period, both ensembles and 
operational runs quickly develop a strong upper level ridge 
starting Thursday the 19th and continuing through the following 
weekend. This supports another 3-4 day period of above normal 
temperatures and below normal precipitation. One nugget that has 
emerged is the potential for triple digit heat from June 19-21. EC 
ensembles have trended up for high temperatures (solidly mid-90s) 
and have 20-30% probability of 100 degree temperatures already. H85 
temperatures are anomalously warm as well. We will have to see how 
this trend plays in about 10 days. 

One other thing for the next 1-2 weeks as a whole, the EC ensembles 
have pretty solid wind through most of the period, with almost daily 
gusts over 20 mph and about 1/3 of the days with gusts over 30 mph. 
This coming weekend is not "no wind" but is likely a lower wind 
period of the next 2 weeks. 

Why not look ahead even further? GEFS/EC ensembles have two trends 
in the 20-40 day forecast period. Below normal precipitation (drier 
than normal) and above normal temperatures (warmer than normal). 
There is some uncertainty as to how quickly the anomalously high H5 
heights build into the Plains, but the trend seems fairly clear that 
upper ridging will reach up from New Mexico to eastern Montana by 
early July. Additional rain next week could be very important if 
this strong upper ridge does develop as models suggest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through the period.

A weak line of showers and thunderstorms west of the terminals
early this morning are expected to further dissipate as they
track east over the next few hours, with no more than a few
mid/high clouds and possibly a couple of sprinkles by the time
they reach the terminals. Southerly winds will remain steady
near 10-12 KTS overnight as the pressure gradient will not 
relax much, with a very weak LLJ possibly resulting in very 
marginal LLWS (not mentioned). Winds will increase out of the 
south again during the daytime hours Thursday, with gusts to 
near 20 KTS...with a weakening disturbance moving off the high 
plains bringing additional cloud cover during the late evening
hours Thursday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Rossi