National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCHS Product Timestamp: 2025-06-12 06:09 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KCHS Products for 12 Jun 2025 View All AFD Products for 12 Jun 2025 View As Image Download As Text
535 FXUS62 KCHS 120609 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 209 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will affect the area through the weekend while high pressure remains offshore. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Early this morning: Evening convection off to our west has largely dissipated, other than one or two lingering showers. However, now the focus for noctural shower and thunderstorm development will be along the coast where subtle convergence lines are showing up well on radar. We are seeing the first of this convection impact Beaufort County, across Hilton Head and will spread towards Parris Island and the eastern half of the county. These coastal showers will likely increase in coverage and gradually spread up toward Edisto and eventually the Charleston coast as well. As far as fog and stratus concerns overnight, the best chances appear to be inland across the SC Midlands, but could also extend into northern Dorchester and Berkeley counties which were impacted by afternoon convection yesterday. Lows are forecast to range from around 70 inland, to the low to mid 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A relatively warm and moist airmass will persist through Saturday with the area on the western side of an upper ridge just off the FL coast. A series of shortwaves will ripple across the area during this time, maintaining some upper forcing for convective development. With highs in the upper 80s and dewpoints solidly in the 70s, daytime CAPEs should reach 1000-1500 J/kg which will support numerous showers and tstms to develop, particularly in the afternoon/evenings. The severe thunderstorm potential looks fairly low. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will slowly expand west over the weekend into early next week. Diurnal convective coverage will gradually decrease through the period as mid-level subsidence strengthens. Highs will creep upward each day, with readings in the low to mid 90s by early next week. Given surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices could reach 108 degrees in a few spots, especially in the sea breeze corridor. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. There are a few concerns through about 8-9am including coastal showers and some fog and stratus. Coastal showers through the mid morning will primarily be a concern for KJZI. The main time period for showers in the vicinity at KJZI will be between 6-10 am. It is still unclear if there will be direct impacts so we have not added to the TAF at this time. Concerning fog and stratus over the next few hours, it appears the best chances will remain inland of the terminals. For afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances, model guidance suggests the best chances will be inland of the TAF sites. Therefore, we have not included any mention of thunder in the TAF's. Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Tonight: Winds are expected to be more southerly today with speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range early this evening. Overnight winds will diminish slightly, generally around 10 knots. Seas should mostly average 2-3 feet through the period. Thursday through Tuesday: Marine conditions are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...BSH/JRL MARINE...CPM/JRL