National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCHS Product Timestamp: 2025-06-12 01:14 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KCHS Products for 12 Jun 2025 View All AFD Products for 12 Jun 2025 View As Image Download As Text
670 FXUS62 KCHS 120114 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 914 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will affect the area through the weekend while high pressure remains offshore. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Convection has largely "worked over" the environment, eliminating any lingering instability this evening, with thunderstorm coverage focused increasingly across south central GA through the rest of the evening. Dry conditions expected through the rest of the night, with the primary concern/challenge shifting to early morning fog. Guidance indicates potential (10-30%) for fog development across inland portions of the Low Country - especially Berkeley, Dorchester, and Colleton Co, where scattered to widespread rainfall occurred this afternoon. However, this fog will be predicated on prolonged efficient radiational cooling, and confidence in completely clear skies is low. Thus, have left out of the official forecast for now. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A relatively warm and moist airmass will persist through Saturday with the area on the western side of an upper ridge just off the FL coast. A series of shortwaves will ripple across the area during this time, maintaining some upper forcing for convective development. With highs in the upper 80s and dewpoints solidly in the 70s, daytime CAPEs should reach 1000-1500 J/kg which will support numerous showers and tstms to develop, particularly in the afternoon/evenings. The severe thunderstorm potential looks fairly low. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper ridge over the western Atlantic will slowly expand west over the weekend into early next week. Diurnal convective coverage will gradually decrease through the period as mid-level subsidence strengthens. Highs will creep upward each day, with readings in the low to mid 90s by early next week. Given surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices could reach 108 degrees in a few spots, especially in the sea breeze corridor. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fog is the primary threat/challenge overnight. 10-30% fog probs inland of CHS/JZI, but lower chances near the SC coast and across SE GA overnight. Have opted to leave any fog mention out for the time being given the extremely low probs, but monitor for additional adjustments overnight if radiational cooling is stronger than expected. Otherwise, another round of scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms is on tap for Thursday afternoon, bringing the potential for at least brief flight restrictions, but beyond the period where it justifies mention in the TAF with the 00Z issuance. Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Tonight: Winds are expected to be more southerly today with speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range early this evening. Overnight winds will diminish slightly, generally around 10 knots. Seas should mostly average 2-3 feet through the period. Thursday through Tuesday: Marine conditions are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEB/CPM SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...CEB/JRL MARINE...CPM/JRL