National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ Product Timestamp: 2025-06-14 08:22 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KABQ Products for 14 Jun 2025 View All AFD Products for 14 Jun 2025 View As Image Download As Text
696 FXUS65 KABQ 140822 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 222 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 213 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 - Isolated thunderstorms could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph across far eastern New Mexico for the next couple of afternoons. Gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms are also possible around the southern high terrain Saturday and Sunday afternoons. - Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas Saturday through Tuesday, with near record high temperatures. Major heat risk is likely for the southeast plains and the lower Rio Grande Valley. - Breezy to gusty west winds will return on Tuesday. Locally critical fire weather conditions may allow any recent dry lightning strikes to become new wildfire starts, especially over western NM where fuels are very dry. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 213 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Forecast confidence remains very high on widespread near-record heat developing over the area this weekend. A 592dm H5 high centered near Tuscon, AZ Friday evening will build to near 595dm over southwest NM thru Sunday. This ridge is nearly +2 standard deviations above climo and the average max strength typically observed for mid June. Very dry air under the ridge with near-max solar radiation will help to contribute to intense heat over the entire region. Today will be the hottest day of the year so far, only to be followed by even hotter temps on Sunday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday for the ABQ metro where max temps will hover between 99 and 101F. Chaves and Socorro counties have also been included where highs are likely to reach 105F (>60% chance). Several active wildfires across AZ and southwest NM may allow skies to become hazy for parts of the area thru the weekend. The latest HRRR smoke guidance indicates the Four Corners and lower RGV will be favored for potential air quality deterioration. There may also be a few more high-based showers and dry storms to contend with over the weekend, mainly over eastern NM and the southern high terrain. Model DCAPE values average 1000-2000 J/kg in these areas which supports more downburst wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 213 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Red or green? Hope you like it hot either way because you won't have much of a choice early next week. High pressure ridging overhead will continue to promote scorching hot temperature on Monday and Tuesday, with many areas including Albuquerque, Roswell, and Clayton look to approach record highs. Temperatures throughout the state will be 5 to 13 degrees above average for mid June, but low lying areas (especially along the lower Rio Grande and Pecos river valleys) will see the greatest threat of dangerously hot 100+ temperatures. With moderate to major heat risk for many areas, avoid being outside for long periods of time and make sure to stay well hydrated to prevent heat illness. On Tuesday, an upper level trough will push through the central Rockies, lowering pressure heights throughout the region and cooling temperatures a couple of degrees for central and western areas. However, 500 mb pressure heights will still be in the 586 to 590 dm range, within the 75th percentile for this time of year. Therefore, temperatures will still be quite hot, particularly for eastern New Mexico where several records are threatened. The trough on Tuesday will usher in some stronger and drier westerly flow into the region. Daytime heating should be able to mix down some stronger 30 to 35 kt 700 mb winds to the surface, creating some breezy to gusty conditions during the afternoon. Lee- side surface troughing in northeast New Mexico may also help to strengthen winds for the central highlands and east plains where 35 to 40 mph gusts will be possible. Downsloping winds will also further heat up the environment for areas east of the central mountain chain, which may result in temperatures soaring close to Excessive Heat criteria (110F) for Chaves county and a record tying 100 for Clayton. Once the trough pushes east into the Great Plains, a moist backdoor cold front will push through northeast New Mexico during the evening and overnight hours on Tuesday. This front may produce some light showers and thunderstorms for Union county late on Tuesday. With greater moisture in place and a more moist southerly flow returning to eastern New Mexico for the rest of the week, virga showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop for areas along and east of the central mountain chain during the afternoons. Meanwhile, pressure heights will be on the rise once again as ridging builds over the central CONUS, leading to more above average temperatures for New Mexico. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Gusty showers lingering over eastern NM late this evening will give way to mid level clouds overnight. Saturday will be hotter and drier for the entire region with even less coverage of gusty showers and storms. Any activity that does form will be over far eastern NM and the southern high terrain. Downburst wind gusts in excess of 45KT are possible again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 213 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 There were nearly 200 dry lightning strikes recorded by the NLDN across parts of Catron, Socorro, and Lincoln counties Friday, with several hundred over northeast and east-central NM. These areas will need to be monitored for potential fire starts given the upcoming intense heat, prolonged single digit humidity, and eventual breezy conditions Monday and Tuesday. ERC values are highest in the western and southern high terrain where several RAWS sites are near or above the 90th percentile. ERCs are lower farther north and east however those values will likely trend higher over the next several days of intense heat and very low humidity. The unseasonably strong upper level ridge building north into the region this weekend will begin breaking down Monday as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Mixing heights beneath the ridge over the weekend will peak between 17,000 and 19,000 ft AGL in most areas with near-record hot temps and single digit RH. Southwest breezes will then increase over central and western NM Monday as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be common along and west of the Cont Divide. The upper level trough will cross the region on Tuesday and allow widespread westerly breezes to develop with single digit humidity. West wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common over the entire area. The Hot- Dry-Windy Index exceeds the 90th percentile over portions of western NM both Monday and Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch may be required for portions of the area. Mixing heights decrease on Monday and Tuesday with the passing trough but values will still peak between 14,000 and 16,000 ft AGL (>75th percentile height for June). A backdoor cold front will slide into eastern NM in the wake of the upper trough Tuesday night and Wednesday. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will build north again with warming temps, lighter winds, and a few more high-based showers and dry storms possible thru Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 57 98 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 89 45 92 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 90 55 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 92 48 94 48 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 89 53 90 55 / 0 0 5 0 Grants.......................... 93 51 95 54 / 0 0 5 0 Quemado......................... 91 55 93 57 / 0 0 5 0 Magdalena....................... 93 61 94 64 / 0 0 5 5 Datil........................... 90 56 92 59 / 0 0 10 0 Reserve......................... 98 52 98 53 / 0 0 5 0 Glenwood........................ 101 57 103 59 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 84 48 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 89 57 91 59 / 0 0 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 87 52 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 81 41 82 44 / 0 0 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 82 39 83 39 / 0 0 5 0 Taos............................ 90 48 91 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 87 51 87 53 / 5 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 96 56 97 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 90 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 58 96 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 68 98 69 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 66 100 66 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 64 102 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 65 101 67 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 100 60 101 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 99 63 101 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 99 60 101 59 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 100 64 101 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 61 101 62 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 95 65 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 98 65 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 103 66 104 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 91 61 93 62 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 95 62 97 63 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 93 56 96 57 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 52 94 53 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 87 57 90 58 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 93 58 95 59 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 92 58 94 59 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 96 65 97 66 / 0 0 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 90 63 91 63 / 10 0 20 5 Capulin......................... 87 53 87 54 / 10 10 10 10 Raton........................... 92 52 92 53 / 10 10 5 0 Springer........................ 93 51 94 53 / 5 5 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 90 53 91 55 / 0 0 5 0 Clayton......................... 92 61 94 62 / 5 10 0 10 Roy............................. 90 57 92 57 / 5 10 5 5 Conchas......................... 98 63 99 63 / 0 5 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 96 61 96 62 / 0 5 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 96 64 98 64 / 0 10 0 5 Clovis.......................... 97 65 98 66 / 5 10 0 10 Portales........................ 99 65 100 65 / 5 10 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 99 65 101 64 / 0 5 0 5 Roswell......................... 104 69 105 69 / 5 0 5 0 Picacho......................... 97 63 97 64 / 10 0 10 0 Elk............................. 96 61 96 62 / 10 0 20 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ219-220-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...42