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119 FXUS62 KFFC 140623 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 223 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Continued robust southwesterly flow from the cutoff low over the gulf will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Coverage will be patchy with a summer-like pattern, though high PWATS and the approaching low will drive generally increasing coverage through the weekend. Thunderstorms this afternoon are likely to be more organized than yesterday with a passing shortwave currently over western AL and TN alongside effects from sea breeze convection from the southeast. A few light showers have already begun to pop across central and north GA where SFCCAPE values currently sit at nearly 2000-3000 J/Kg. Storm potential is expected to peak each afternoon with diurnal heating and taper off through the late evening. A few storms could become strong with locally heavy rainfall (could lead to localized flash flooding), frequent lighting (an issue for many who plan to be outside this weekend), and locally gusty winds (40-50mph). Widespread or organized severe is not anticipated at this time with DCAPE values less than 900 J/Kg, but water loading could lead to a very isolated threat for damaging winds. While temperatures won't be anything too impressive, dewpoints in the 70s and highs in the 80s will mean apparent temperatures reach into the 90s by the end of the weekend. Stay hydrated and be aware of how much time you spend outdoors. SM && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 With persistent troughing extending from the Great Lakes towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley, southwesterly upper level flow will remain in place over the region on Sunday and into next week, which will keep conditions wet and humid across north and central Georgia. Continued advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf will keep dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and precipitable water values mainly between 1.75 and 2 inches during the weekend and through the early parts of next week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be higher than normal each day given this ample moisture. Convective activity will be largely diurnally driven, with low PoPs through much of the mornings, increasing through the early afternoons, and peaking between 60-70% in the mid to late afternoon hours each day. The southern end of a surface low (to the east of the trough) advancing through the Tennessee Valley region on Sunday afternoon is expected to provide additional lift and contribute to locally higher PoPs across the northern tier. While the threat for organized severe weather will be low, a few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds. Furthermore, with high PWATs, these storms will be efficient rainfall producers, which could lead to isolated flooding concerns. As the wet pattern continues, antecedent soil conditions will become more saturated in locations that see heavy rainfall accumulations over the course of multiple days, and the probability for flash flooding will progressively increase as a result. Patchy fog will also be possible during the overnight and early morning hours, particularly where soils are saturated from previous rainfall and cloud cover dissipates. Considering the chances for showers and thunderstorms each day and the associated cloud cover, high temperatures will run near normal for mid-June on Sunday, in the 80s across the majority of the area area. Temperatures will begin to climb in the early portions of next week, particularly to the south of the Fall Line, where highs will rise into the low to mid 90s. These temperatures, combined with the aforementioned dewpoints, will contribute to maximum heat indices of 98-103 degrees in portions of central Georgia on Monday through Thursday. Low temperatures will closely reflect the dewpoints, and will run about 4-8 degrees above daily normals each morning. King && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Patchy IFR conditions are already taking shape in areas near the TAF sites with some area of isolated LIFR. Expecting this to become more widespread into the 09-10z timeframe and last through 14z. There is an indication that CIGs will reach VFR by 16-17z today before introducing VCSH ~16z to account for earlier showers. Main thunderstorm timing is 18-24z with an emphasis on the 20-24z timeframe this afternoon. Should see a similar rinse and repeat forecast for tomorrow morning. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium on all elements. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 85 69 85 70 / 70 50 70 20 Atlanta 85 70 85 70 / 70 60 70 30 Blairsville 80 64 80 64 / 90 70 90 30 Cartersville 87 68 86 68 / 70 60 70 30 Columbus 87 71 88 72 / 60 40 70 30 Gainesville 83 69 84 70 / 80 60 80 30 Macon 88 71 88 71 / 70 30 70 30 Rome 86 69 84 69 / 80 70 70 30 Peachtree City 86 69 86 69 / 70 50 70 30 Vidalia 88 72 91 73 / 70 40 70 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Hernandez