National Weather Service Raw Text Product

356 
FXUS64 KTSA 121955
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
255 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

  - Rain showers along with scattered thunderstorm chances 
    continue through Friday with upper low lifting through the 
    region. A locally heavy rainfall threat exists over southeast 
    Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Flooding may become a concern.

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend, with
    potential for a limited severe threat Saturday into Sunday, 
    mainly in eastern Oklahoma. Continue to monitor the forecast 
    for updates and additional details as they become available.

  - Warming trend and humid conditions going into next week.
    

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The mid level low/ upper trough axis will linger over the region 
tonight with persisting precip chances. A few lightning strikes 
will be possible, but instability is likely to be quite weak over 
the FA overnight and generally not expecting much in the way of 
thunderstorms. Highest PoPs and rainfall are likely to occur over 
far E OK and NW AR zones tonight, though wrap around showers will 
remain possible across the remainder of the area as well. Highest 
PWATs are still expected to stay just south and east of the CWA 
through tonight, but heavy rain and potential for localized flash 
flooding will still remain a concern across far southeast Oklahoma
and west-central Arkansas. Otherwise, expect light winds 
overnight with low temperatures in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The upper trough lingers over the region Friday before gradually 
shifting east late Friday into Saturday. This will keep shower and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast for much of Friday... 
becoming increasingly restricted to eastern zones with time. A 
locally heavy rain threat continues Friday across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings suggest instability 
will be greater tomorrow, especially across eastern Oklahoma, and 
it is not out of question to see a strong storm or two develop 
tomorrow afternoon with potential for gusty winds, very heavy 
rainfall, and small hail. Low to medium shower and thunderstorm 
chances persist tomorrow night and Saturday as the upper trough 
exits. Meanwhile, the Desert SW ridge begins to amplify, placing 
the area under N-NW flow aloft. A couple weak disturbances 
embedded within the flow will impact the S Plains through the 
weekend/ early next week, and will maintain chance PoPs through 
Monday afternoon.

The exact placement and likelihood of any severe impacts will 
likely depend on mesoscale evolution over the coming days, but 
with ample instability in place and a couple of shortwaves moving 
through the NW flow, it does appear that a limited severe threat 
could develop Saturday into Sunday. Shear will again be fairly 
weak, which could limit the overall potential, but certainly would
not be surprised if severe probabilities trend up over the 
weekend as more short range guidance becomes available and finer 
details are resolved. Damaging wind gusts would likely be the 
primary hazard if this severe threat were to materialize.

By late Monday into Tuesday, heights increase across the Southern
Plains and drier conditions are forecast. Model variability 
persists regarding a potential shortwave toward the middle of next
week. Some solutions suggest little in the way of impacts for our
area as the wave rides along the northern periphery of the 
ridge... while others suggest a more amplified trough digs into 
the region. For now, will stick with NBM PoPs which reflect a 
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern 
portions of the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. In either 
scenario, the trend overall appears to be more towards drier and 
warmer conditions by late next week.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the forecast period, 
with highs in the 80s this weekend and 90s next week. This, 
combined with high dewpoints, will allow heat indices to climb... 
potentially near or above 100 degrees next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Flight conditions will range from VFR to MVFR across the area
into this evening as rain and some thunderstorms spread north
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  Conditions
will go to IFR tonight as areas of light rain and isolated
thunderstorms continue to spread north and northeast across
the area.  The precipitation will tend to decrease in coverage
with time during the night. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  82  69  90 /  40  30  20  20 
FSM   69  84  71  91 /  70  70  40  30 
MLC   66  85  70  89 /  30  40  30  30 
BVO   66  83  66  89 /  30  30  10  10 
FYV   66  79  66  88 /  80  70  30  20 
BYV   67  77  66  86 /  80  80  30  20 
MKO   67  81  69  87 /  50  60  30  20 
MIO   67  80  66  87 /  60  60  10  10 
F10   66  83  69  88 /  30  40  30  20 
HHW   67  85  70  87 /  20  30  30  30 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...08