National Weather Service Raw Text Product

549 
FXUS65 KBOU 121729
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1129 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
  with winds to 50 mph the main threat for most of the area. A few
  storms could be severe over far northeast Colorado with strong 
  winds and large hail.

- Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue Friday
  with a few severe thunderstorms possible over the eastern 
  plains.

- Warming trend and drying trend this weekend with the chance for
  thunderstorms confined to the northeast plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already formed over the 
higher terrain. They will spread eastward through the afternoon 
and early evening hours. Moisture isn't that great with dew points
in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the Front Range. MLCAPE stays 
under 700 J/kg and shear will be weak, so we are not expecting any
organized thunderstorm activity. Because of the large 
temperature/dew point spread (inverted V sounding), gusty outflow 
winds will be the main threat. A couple severe gusts will be 
possible, but most of the gusts will be under 50 mph. The showers 
and storms come to an end by early to mid evening as the air 
stabilizes. 

Much of the same is in store for Thursday with weak ridging 
overhead leading to warm temperatures, weak winds aloft (low 
shear), and limited moisture. South-southeast winds develop over 
Nebraska and Kansas Thursday. These winds creep into eastern 
Colorado increasing low level moisture and shear. It's this area 
that will be more favorable for severe thunderstorms with MLCAPE 
1500 J/kg. Farther west for much of the area, weaker high based 
showers and thunderstorms are expected again with gusty outflow 
winds to 50 mph.

On Friday, the ridging flattens some, increasing the flow aloft. 
Westerly flow aloft increases over the western half of Colorado 
bringing drier air to the mountains. Over the eastern half of 
Colorado, southeast winds advance westward to roughly the I-25 
corridor by early afternoon, Dew points over the eastern plains 
reach the 50s leading to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Southeast winds
under an increasing west flow aloft should result in enough shear
for supercell thunderstorms. This unstable airmass will likely 
stay east of the I-25 corridor. However, there looks to be enough 
moisture for weak high-based showers and thunderstorms again. 
Temperatures will continue to be warm with highs in the upper 80s 
to lower 90s across northeast Colorado. 

For the weekend, ridging aloft intensifies over the Central and 
Southern Rockies. Highs are expected to warm into the 90s over 
northeast Colorado. Across most of the area, limited moisture and 
instability combined with warming aloft will result in dry 
conditions or very weak convection. Easterly winds will hold 
moisture over far eastern/northeastern Colorado with MLCAPE of 
2000- 3000 J/kg. This will lead to a severe weather threat where 
the higher dew points (greater than 50) reside. 

The ridge slides off to the east next week, as an upper level 
trough pushes inland from the Pacific. Highs temperatures cool 
into the 80s across northeast Colorado by Tuesday. Still a little 
too early to tell how much moisture will be in place. Southwest 
flow aloft ahead of the trough should keep drier air over the 
region. The best moisture will continue to be over the eastern 
plains at times when we see surges of easterly winds. As far as 
PoPs go, will have 10-30 across the area each day. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

We are looking at a similar setup today as yesterday with scattered 
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The main 
time period for storms will be 20Z to 00Z. The main threat with 
the showers and thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds to 40 
knots. Expect the Denver airports to see a couple wind shifts due 
to the outflow winds. Convection slowly decreases/shifts eastward 
after 00Z with the area free of showers and storms 03Z to 04Z, if 
not sooner. Winds then settle a southerly drainage direction for 
the overnight hours. For Friday, we see fewer showers and storms, 
but the airports will likely be impacted by outflow winds again. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Meier