National Weather Service Raw Text Product

018 
FXUS63 KGID 121724
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally above normal temperatures anticipated through the
  forecast period with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees
  above normal each day.

- Periodic (mainly small) thunderstorm chances anticipated
  across the local area. Chances will be focused mainly during
  the evening through overnight hours with at least a small
  chance for strong to severe thunderstorms most days. 

- A stronger upper level trough will likely bring the best
  chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
  next Tuesday PM or Wednesday, but still plenty of uncertainty
  with the timing and track of this trough.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A few storms across the high plains late last night fizzled as 
they approached our western boundary, with only a few clouds
pushing across the area early this morning. After a partly
cloudy start to the day, expect another round of showers and
thunderstorms to develop near the frontal boundary extending
from south Dakota into western Nebraska by early
evening...gradually weakening as they track east during the late
evening and overnight hours. The HRRR brings these decaying
storms to areas mainly west of Highway 183, with the NAM/NAMnest
not nearly as optimistic holding these storms together as they 
track east. As a result, it was not surprising that the Marginal
Risk for severe weather for today was trimmed and limited to 
areas to our west for this evening and overnight.

A slightly better chance for severe weather returns to the local
area Friday evening/night, as models have hinted at a more
organized disturbance moving off the high plains and into parts
of the local area. Correspondingly, the chances for severe 
weather have shifted east, but this is still a fairly low 
confidence event as the local area will be on the decaying edge 
of this system late Friday night.

For the weekend and beyond, expect a messy ridge of high
pressure to continue across the central plains with daily
(mainly evening/overnight) chances for showers and thunderstorms
along with continued above normal temperatures. Not all areas
will see precip each day, and some areas may remain dry.

The main difference this morning was the disappearance of the 
cooler temps next Tuesday, with highs now remaining in the lower
90s Tuesday afternoon, and the cooler day/more seasonable 
weather holding off until the upper level trough and better 
chances for rainfall return next Wednesday. While there is 
better agreement among the EC/GFS ensembles for a more 
widespread rainfall event next Tuesday PM/Wednesday, 
operational runs of both the EC/GFS still have significant 
differences, so overall confidence of timing remains on the 
lower side. So all is all, above normal temps forecast through 
the period with at least some chances for precip each
evening/night (with the most promising chances likely next 
Tuesday PM/Wednesday).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
General weakish flow across the Central Plains this forecast
period but there is at least one potential impact. Low level 
moisture will increase from the south/southeast tonight and 
likely result in a period of MVFR ceilings, at least for a time,
at both KGRI and KEAR either side of dawn Friday. Fog 
accompanied the clouds today to the south, so have included a 
tempo group for some fog in the KGRI area as well. Weak forcing 
and the lack of any real low-level jet tonight will keep 
precipitation at bay through the forecast. Gusty south winds 
near 25kts today will drop off this evening and remain sub-12kts
later tonight and tomorrow. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz