National Weather Service Raw Text Product

646 
FXUS65 KPUB 121732
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms will be possible today, mainly east of I-25, 
  with strong outflow winds to 60 mph possible.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible tomorrow, mainly 
  over our eastern plains. 

- Above normal temperatures persist for today and tomorrow, with
  highs climbing well into the 90s across the plains.

- A drying trend with above normal temperatures continuing through 
  the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Currently...

Showers and thunderstorms have come to an end across the area as of 
1am, with only one cell to our north over Lincoln County still 
producing a few flashes of lightning. Satellite imagery reveals a 
low to our southeast and mostly cloudy skies over our eastern 
plains. Clearer conditions exist over the high country, where drier 
air continues to push in from the west. Dewpoints are in the 30s 
over the mountains, and mid 50s over the eastern plains. 
Temperatures are in the 50s and 60s across the area. Winds are 
mainly either weak and westerly, or weak and following normal 
drainage patterns. 

Today and Tonight...

Weak westerly flow aloft continues as a broad area of high pressure 
sits off the Baja Peninsula. This pattern will keep zonal flow over 
our region today, allowing for fairly dry conditions in the lower 
levels. Showers and storms look to fire by around noon over our 
southwest mountains, spreading east throughout the early afternoon 
hours, and into the Pikes Peak region and the I-25 corridor by 
around 3pm. Forecast soundings exhibit inverted V structure, which 
will likely mean gusty outflow winds with convection today. DCAPE 
values over 1800 J/Kg are forecast for this afternoon, along with a 
marginal risk for severe storms along and east of I-25. The main 
risk with storms today looks to be strong outflow winds, with a few 
gusts to 60 mph possible, though sub-severe gusts will be more 
likely (80% chance). Temperatures for today look to be around 4 to 6 
degrees above normal for most locations, with highs climbing into 
the low to mid 90s across much of the plains, with mid to upper 80s 
for northern, and southern portions of the I-25 corridor, and 80s 
across our mountain valleys. For tonight, showers and thunderstorms 
look to come to an end from west to east by around 11pm or so at the 
latest, with overnight lows remaining just a few degrees warmer than 
normal for most locations.

Friday...

By Friday, our flow aloft becomes only slightly more southwesterly 
as broad high pressure builds to our southwest and a low pushes 
onshore over British Columbia. Overall our flow remains weak, with 
drier air filtering in at the surface, especially over and near the 
mountains. This will mean less convection over and near the high 
country, along with chances for gusty outflow winds where weak 
thunderstorms and virga or showers do manage to develop along and 
west of I-25 on Friday. Further east, where better moisture will 
reside, chances for stronger to severe storms will exist for Friday 
afternoon. High res model guidance suggests upwards of 1500 J/Kg or 
so of CAPE over our eastern plains on Friday, where chances for 
severe storms look to be highest, if storms manage to develop. SPC 
has this area outlined in a slight risk for severe storms. 
Temperatures on Friday look to be slightly warmer than Thursday, and 
will remain about 5 to 8 degrees above average, with highs climbing 
well into the mid 90s across much of the plains, mid to upper 80s 
for the Pikes Peak region and our mountain valleys, and 70s for 
higher terrain locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Friday night-Monday...Upper level ridging is expected to build back 
across the Rockies through the weekend, with operational and ensemble 
model data supporting much drier air moving across the region within 
generally weak southwest flow aloft. This will lead to decreasing chances 
of diurnal showers and storms into early next week, with any storms that 
can develop over and near the higher terrain being higher based. The 
one exception will be over the far southeast plains, where lee/thermal 
trough will keep low level moisture in place. This will lead to the 
potential for a few strong to severe storms, if mid level capping
weakens enough for the instability can be tapped. High temperatures 
into early next week to remain above seasonal norms in the upper 80s 
to upper 90s across the Plains, and in the 60s to low 80s across the 
higher terrain. Lows look to be in the 50s to lower 60s across the 
plains and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. 

Tuesday-Thursday...Latest models data continues to differ on the 
amplitude and timing of an upper trough trying to break down the 
ridge through the middle of next week, leading to uncertainty in 
temperatures and precipitation chances. NBM data does support a slow 
decrease in temperatures and a slight uptick in convection, mainly
across the eastern mountains and plains, through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A passing disturbance will bring scattered showers and storms to the 
area this afternoon and evening, with the potential for impacts at 
all three TAF sites KALS, KCOS, and KPUB.

KALS: Scattered showers and storms will form across the nearby 
mountains this afternoon, drifting into the valley by 22Z or so. 
While precipitation at the terminal is low-medium confidence, due to 
patchy coverage, can expect a few hours of gusty outflow winds, 
mainly from the west-northwest, to 25 knots or so. Area dries out 
again later this evening, with winds below 10 knots and slowly 
clearing skies.

KCOS: Several rounds of showers and storms possible this afternoon 
and evening. Showers are already popping up nearby, and will persist 
in the area with some thunder, off and on through about 00Z. This 
evening, in the 01-03Z timeframe, some models show another line of 
storms briefly moving through, so while the data looks inconsistent, 
have included a PROB30 for this possibility. Outflow winds in storm 
vicinity today could produce gusts of 25 knots or so, and if a storm 
moves directly over the terminal, 35 knots or more will be briefly 
possible. The area dries out overnight with the return of lighter 
winds.

KPUB: Showers and storms are expected in the area today, mainly over 
and near the higher terrain. Outflow winds from storms will come in 
from the west, around 00Z or so, with gusts of 25 knots possible. 
There is a lower, but non-zero chance for a few showers and storms 
to pass over the terminal later this evening, have included as a 
PROB30 for now due to the isolated-scattered coverage of expected 
storms. The area will dry out again overnight, with lighter west-
northwest winds and clearing skies by Friday morning. 

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO