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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Product Timestamp: 2012-06-20 18:59 UTC
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616 FXUS64 KBRO 201859 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 159 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...IT APPEARS THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE FOR THE MOMENT AND ALSO APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING THE SEABREEZE FRONT AS WELL. WITH NO FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NOT CONFIDENT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SPREAD WESTWARD. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURS AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER BAJA CA PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EASTWARD BLOCKING ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING THE CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. A VERY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. GFS/NAM/CMC AND ECMWF 12Z RUN ARE SHOWING THIS LOW PRESSURE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZE WHICH COULD PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT THIS TIME...ALL MODELS AGREED ON KEEPING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST. A MODERATE TO STRONG CAP OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS AS THE RIDGE ENLARGE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INLAND BUT ARE QUICKLY DIVERTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AS THE HIGH RETURN FLOW IS STRONG. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DONE TO TE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ARE IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE RGV REACHING THE 100S IN THE HALF WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY MID WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. && .MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE THEY BACK TO THE EAST AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO THURS NIGHT AS A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCEC TONIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BECOMING 3 TO 4 FEET BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO TOMORROW AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT ERRATIC WINDS WITHIN THESE STORMS...MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY/NORTHEAST AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEK SHIFTING WINDS MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SCEC OR SCA FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 75 90 / 50 30 20 10 BROWNSVILLE 74 90 74 92 / 30 30 20 10 HARLINGEN 74 91 73 93 / 20 40 20 10 MCALLEN 75 94 76 96 / 20 50 30 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 95 75 95 / 10 50 30 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 86 78 88 / 50 30 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 61/67