National Weather Service Raw Text Product

923 
FXUS61 KALY 101511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION 
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION 
WITH SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...MINOR UPDATE TO THE NEAR TERM ADJUSTED SOME
CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS. AN H500 SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW VIA THE
RUC40 MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS NW OF THE CAPITAL
REGION WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH...WE KEPT THEM
IN THE FCST. MAX TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK. SOME CLOUDS MAY MIX WITH
SOME SUN IN THE VALLEYS. THE BIGGER UPDATE FOR THIS UPGRADE IS THE
ISSUANCE FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION EXCLUDING THE ERN CATSKILLS /WE MAY ADD THEM
LATER TODAY/.

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT...

THE LATEST NAM TRENDS INCLUDING THE 12Z GUIDANCE...AND THE 09Z
SREF STILL SHOW 0.75" OF INCH OF AN QPF OR GREATER FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS EASTWARD FOR AT LEAST 6-12" OF SNOWFALL.
THE LATEST HPC WINTER GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENTIAL
WATCH AREA. OUR CONFIDENCE IS 50% OR GREATER OF REACHING 7 OR MORE
INCHES IN 12 HOURS...OR 9 INCHES IN THE 24 HR CRITERIA. THE
CAPITAL REGION IS RIGHT ON THE GRADIENT /AROUND A HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH/ OF QPF WITH A FAVORED TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND TOWARDS CAPE COD. WE WILL ADDRESS ANY OTHER ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WILL RUN FROM MIDNIGHT WED
TO 7 PM WED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 600 AM...TEMPERATURES IN SELECT SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKE GFL
HAD PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND
NO WIND OVER THE SNOW PACK. A FEW OTHER SPOTS MIGHT DO THE SAME.
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF PLACES WILL HOLD ONTO A BREEZE AND SOME
CLOUDS...AND SEE READINGS ONLY DIP DEGREE OR TWO MORE THROUGH
SUNRISE...WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW STILL EVIDENT ON RADAR IN THE SCHOHARIE 
VALLEY...BUT WITH DBZ VALUES UNDER 10...PROBABLY JUST FLURRIES AT 
MOST. 


*************PREVIOUS NEAR DISCUSSION************8  

AS OF 400 AM....STILL DEALING WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND 
FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS WELL AS 
THE TERRAIN TO THE EAST. HOWEVER... THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
DWINDLE AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS PREVENT OPTIMAL SNOW GROWTH. 
ALSO THE FLOW IS SLOWLY BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC AS A SHORT WAVE PULLS 
AWAY. BOTH FORCES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO TODAY. 

STILL DEALING WITH A GUSTY NW WIND...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. 
OTHER AREAS HAVE SEEN THEIR WIND DIMINISH. STILL DEALING WITH PLENTY 
OF CLOUDS THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER TEENS 
TO MID 20S THROUGH THE REGION.

THROUGH 700 AM...LOOK FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY 
DWINDLE BUT STILL COULD ADD DUSTING TO NEARLY AN INCH IN A FEW 
REMOTE SPOTS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH A LITTLE AS WELL. 
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY A DROP A COUPLE OF POINTS GENERALLY BOTTOMING 
OUT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CD FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 25 
MPH...LESSER ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ASIDE FROM LINGERING LAKE EFFECT MULTIBAND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND 
UPSLOPE...IT WILL BE DRY TODAY. HOWEVER...THAT WIND WILL CRANK UP 
ACROSS MOST PLACES...GENERALLY TO THE TUNE OF 15 TO 25 MPH. CLOUDS 
AND SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH MORE SUNSHINE TO THE LEE OF THE 
CATSKILLS. BY THE END OF THE DAY...SUNSHINE LOOKS TO PREVAIL IN MOST 
PLACES. THE HIGH TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...TOUCHING AROUND 
30 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WIND 
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL 
DIMINISH. LOWS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...MORE CLEARING...AND 
SNOW PACK...AROUND 10 TO LOWER TEENS...AROUND 0 SOUTHERN 
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY...WITH 
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...IN THE 20S. 

IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY REAL SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. 

THE NEXT SYSTEM...LOOKS TO BE A PHASING OF THE CURRENT GULF COAST
SYSTEM...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CURRENTLY AROUND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IN UNUSUALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.  

GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT
JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL
GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE
FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE
BEEN TOO POETIC...BUT SOME HINTS AT CONVECTIVE CHARACTER TO SYSTEM
WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING...THAT COULD STEER THE SYSTEM
ALONG THE MORE NORTHWESTERN PREDICTED TRACKS IN GUIDANCE.

WIND ANOMALIES AT 850 HPA SUGGEST BETTER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSED UPPER LOW DOES
LOOK PROGRESSIVE...NOT AN UPPER CUT OFF...EVIDENT IN 250 HPA WIND
ANOMALIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IMPRESSIVE...AND
BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD CUT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC -12C
TO -18C GROWTH ZONE IN A RELATIVELY DECENT LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. MESOSCALE BANDING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS IT IS
TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON WHERE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OF >2"+
PER HOUR COULD SET UP. BIGGEST SNOWS COULD BE SOUTHERN NY INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...OR COULD SHIFT A BIT
WEST TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES...EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...WE JUST
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

SO...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOWSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS...BUT FOR NOW...UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...THE BIGGEST
IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND OR EAST OF THE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BORDER AND SOUTH OF VT...PERHAPS POU THROUGH LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CT...MAYBE TO PSF...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING SOME ADJUSTMENTS
IN ANY DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT GETS NEARER. AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE HUDSON
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWS AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE SYSTEM. AGAIN...A SLIGHT NORTHWEST SHIFT TO THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM...AND HEAVIER SNOWS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT TO SOUTHERN VT...STAY TUNED.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 20 TO THE MID 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN VT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S.

********FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...THE 06Z NAM CAME TRACKING THE STORM A 
LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z RUN...BUT STILL GAVE ALBANY NEAR AN 
INCH QPF...BUT THE HEAVIEST WAS FROM ALBANY EASTWARD. THE 06Z GFS 
CAME IN TRACKING THE STORM FURTHER EAST THAN ITS 
PREDECESSOR...GIVING SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE 00Z 
RUN...SUGGESTING MORE OF MODERATE SNOWSTORM...EVEN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 
*************

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE NOR'EASTER HEADING OUT TO SEA. THERE 
COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN 
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A N-NW 
FLOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO 
DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS DECIDEDLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH A 
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. 

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS SHOULD THEN PERSIST 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WITH 
FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING...A SURFACE TROF AND ASSOCIATED 
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE 
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. DUE TO TIMING 
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS...WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN CYCLONE PASSING BY WELL 
NORTH OF THE AREA AND A DE-AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN...EXPECTING JUST 
SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. DRIER AIR 
SHOULD THEN FILTER IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN 
A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH 
MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE 
REGION AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 

MAINLY A VFR BKN CU/SC CLOUD DECK WILL BE OVER THE KGFL/KALB TAF 
SITES INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT KPOU. AT KALB THE 
CLOUD DECK LOWER TO BELOW THE MVFR THRESHOLD OF 3000 FEET FOR A TIME 
EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH ABOUT 14Z)...THEN JUST VFR CIGS AFTER 
THAT. BY SUNSET AND BEYOND...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE MAINLY P6SM SKC 
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. 

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO  08 
TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AT KGFL/KPOU...AND AROUND 25 
KTS AT KALB. AFTER 22Z-23Z...SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 
KTS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX. 
TUE NGT-WED...MVFR/IFR...-SN/SN LIKELY WITH CHC +SN. 
THU-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF 
NEXT WEEK. 

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON MAIN STEM RIVERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER ON TOP OF THE ICE MAY SLOW THE
RATE OF INCREASE IN ICE THICKNESS.

OUTSIDE OF SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...THE NEXT CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ONCE AGAIN 
THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.   

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
     EVENING FOR NYZ059>061-064>066.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS/JPV