NOAA recently released their winter season forecast. For Iowa, the forecast called for about average temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation. One of the many tools used to make this forecast is the current and forecasted El Nino index. The La Nina conditions have taken a bit longer than expected to develop and the index currently still has a ways to go before getting to La Nina state. Anyway, the featured plot combines the El Nino index along with three month averaged temperatures and precipitation. The two right hand side plots provide the direct comparison and a simple linear fit. Of course, there is no magic bullet here with strong correlations to predict the upcoming winter season. The weather forecast though is more definite over the near term with chances of snow arriving for the weekend!

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Tags:   elnino