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Displaying AFOS PIL: HWOOUN Received: 2013-05-20 10:00 UTC
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FLUS44 KOUN 201004
HWOOUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS...TO LAWTON OKLAHOMA...TO EL RENO...TO GUTHRIE...TO
STILLWATER. A SLIGHT RISK AREA SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK...
AND IS EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNDAY TO VERNON IN TEXAS...AND
ALTUS...TO CLINTON...TO FAIRVIEW...TO CHEROKEE IN OKLAHOMA.
TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 1 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IMPACTS...
BASEBALL SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL...AND WINDS TO ABOUT 60 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 1 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER SITUATION TODAY VERY MUCH RESEMBLES YESTERDAY. WARM...
UNSTABLE AIR WILL AGAIN LIE EAST OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE COMBINATION
THAT WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION IS INDICATED...WHICH SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER BEGINNING OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SPARSE EARLY IN THE
EVENT...THEN MERGE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH...AND MOVE EAST OF THE NORMAN
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...NEAR 100 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.
$$
CMS