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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
950 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2017

ECC029-121200-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
950 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2017

...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE  HUMIDITY...

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MOST 
OF THIS WEEK...

Little change is expected through Thursday. The  extended period of
offshore flow will continue, but will be half as  strong as what
occurred last week. Expect daily peak gusts in the 20  to 40 mph
range. The humidities will remain very dry with poor  overnight
recoveries, similar to last week. The current Red Flag  Warning will
likely be extended as a result, but may remove some  areas (like the
LA Coast). That decision will be made for the  afternoon issuance.
San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 25  mph) through
Thursday morning, including areas near the Thomas Fire.  While these
winds are NOT Sundowner winds in terms of strength and  source, they
will combine with the continued warm and very dry  conditions to
result in elevated to near critical fire weather  conditions. In
addition, the the air mass is fairly unstable above  the Thomas Fire
through Wednesday, resulting in a greater risk for  large fire
plumes which will locally enhance winds near the fire.

Some improvement is expected for Friday into Saturday as the winds
shift to more westerly, but more offshore flow is possible 
beginning Saturday night or Sunday.


...Discussion from Monterey...

High pressure surface and aloft over the Great  Basin will keep dry
offshore flow over the area through Monday  with poor RH recoveries.
The flow may switch more onshore and RH coveries may improve
slightly by Tuesday as the surface high  weakens. Models indicate
more smoke aloft from the southern  California fires on Monday. 

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified. 
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



$$

ECC028-121200-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
950 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE  HUMIDITY...

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MOST 
OF THIS WEEK...

Little change is expected through Thursday. The  extended period of
offshore flow will continue, but will be half as  strong as what
occurred last week. Expect daily peak gusts in the 20  to 40 mph
range. The humidities will remain very dry with poor  overnight
recoveries, similar to last week. The current Red Flag  Warning will
likely be extended as a result, but may remove some  areas (like the
LA Coast). That decision will be made for the  afternoon issuance.
San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 25  mph) through
Thursday morning, including areas near the Thomas Fire.  While these
winds are NOT Sundowner winds in terms of strength and  source, they
will combine with the continued warm and very dry  conditions to
result in elevated to near critical fire weather  conditions. In
addition, the the air mass is fairly unstable above  the Thomas Fire
through Wednesday, resulting in a greater risk for  large fire
plumes which will locally enhance winds near the fire.

Some improvement is expected for Friday into Saturday as the winds
shift to more westerly, but more offshore flow is possible 
beginning Saturday night or Sunday.


$$

ECC031-121200-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
950 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE  HUMIDITY...

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MOST 
OF THIS WEEK...

Little change is expected through Thursday. The  extended period of
offshore flow will continue, but will be half as  strong as what
occurred last week. Expect daily peak gusts in the 20  to 40 mph
range. The humidities will remain very dry with poor  overnight
recoveries, similar to last week. The current Red Flag  Warning will
likely be extended as a result, but may remove some  areas (like the
LA Coast). That decision will be made for the  afternoon issuance.
San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 25  mph) through
Thursday morning, including areas near the Thomas Fire.  While these
winds are NOT Sundowner winds in terms of strength and  source, they
will combine with the continued warm and very dry  conditions to
result in elevated to near critical fire weather  conditions. In
addition, the the air mass is fairly unstable above  the Thomas Fire
through Wednesday, resulting in a greater risk for  large fire
plumes which will locally enhance winds near the fire.

Some improvement is expected for Friday into Saturday as the winds
shift to more westerly, but more offshore flow is possible 
beginning Saturday night or Sunday.


$$

ECC024-121200-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
950 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE  HUMIDITY...

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MOST 
OF THIS WEEK...

Little change is expected through Thursday. The  extended period of
offshore flow will continue, but will be half as  strong as what
occurred last week. Expect daily peak gusts in the 20  to 40 mph
range. The humidities will remain very dry with poor  overnight
recoveries, similar to last week. The current Red Flag  Warning will
likely be extended as a result, but may remove some  areas (like the
LA Coast). That decision will be made for the  afternoon issuance.
San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 25  mph) through
Thursday morning, including areas near the Thomas Fire.  While these
winds are NOT Sundowner winds in terms of strength and  source, they
will combine with the continued warm and very dry  conditions to
result in elevated to near critical fire weather  conditions. In
addition, the the air mass is fairly unstable above  the Thomas Fire
through Wednesday, resulting in a greater risk for  large fire
plumes which will locally enhance winds near the fire.

Some improvement is expected for Friday into Saturday as the winds
shift to more westerly, but more offshore flow is possible 
beginning Saturday night or Sunday.


$$

ECC032-121200-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
950 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE  HUMIDITY...

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MOST 
OF THIS WEEK...

Little change is expected through Thursday. The  extended period of
offshore flow will continue, but will be half as  strong as what
occurred last week. Expect daily peak gusts in the 20  to 40 mph
range. The humidities will remain very dry with poor  overnight
recoveries, similar to last week. The current Red Flag  Warning will
likely be extended as a result, but may remove some  areas (like the
LA Coast). That decision will be made for the  afternoon issuance.
San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 25  mph) through
Thursday morning, including areas near the Thomas Fire.  While these
winds are NOT Sundowner winds in terms of strength and  source, they
will combine with the continued warm and very dry  conditions to
result in elevated to near critical fire weather  conditions. In
addition, the the air mass is fairly unstable above  the Thomas Fire
through Wednesday, resulting in a greater risk for  large fire
plumes which will locally enhance winds near the fire.

Some improvement is expected for Friday into Saturday as the winds
shift to more westerly, but more offshore flow is possible 
beginning Saturday night or Sunday.


$$

ECC030-121200-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
950 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE  HUMIDITY...

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR THROUGH MOST 
OF THIS WEEK...

Little change is expected through Thursday. The  extended period of
offshore flow will continue, but will be half as  strong as what
occurred last week. Expect daily peak gusts in the 20  to 40 mph
range. The humidities will remain very dry with poor  overnight
recoveries, similar to last week. The current Red Flag  Warning will
likely be extended as a result, but may remove some  areas (like the
LA Coast). That decision will be made for the  afternoon issuance.
San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 25  mph) through
Thursday morning, including areas near the Thomas Fire.  While these
winds are NOT Sundowner winds in terms of strength and  source, they
will combine with the continued warm and very dry  conditions to
result in elevated to near critical fire weather  conditions. In
addition, the the air mass is fairly unstable above  the Thomas Fire
through Wednesday, resulting in a greater risk for  large fire
plumes which will locally enhance winds near the fire.

Some improvement is expected for Friday into Saturday as the winds
shift to more westerly, but more offshore flow is possible 
beginning Saturday night or Sunday.


$$