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868 AXUS74 KCRP 011007 DGTCRP TXZ229>234-239>247-031015- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 507 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015 ...DROUGHT AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS END OVER SOUTH TEXAS... ...CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE 2015 SUMMER... ...THERE IS A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EL-NINO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AUTUMN 2015... .SYNOPSIS... THE IMPACTS FROM EL-NINO CONTINUED FOR SOUTH TEXAS DURING APRIL...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). MOST AREAS SAW MORE THAN 300 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR APRIL...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE AREAS WHICH WERE IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY DURING THE BEGINNING OF MARCH. THIS MAKES TWO CONSECUTIVE MONTHS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...EVER SINCE EL-NINO OFFICIALLY BEGAN OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. DURING THE PAST 180 DAYS...ESSENTIALLY ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS HAS RECEIVED AT LEAST 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE (AND SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES) OVER THE REGION. ONLY CHOKE CANYON RESERVOIR REMAINS AT VERY LOW LEVELS (WHICH MAKES THE COMBINED CAPACITY FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR SYSTEM STILL AT STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTION LEVELS). IN ANY CASE...DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OBSERVED NOT ONLY DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS BUT DURING THE PAST 180 DAYS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. WITH EL-NINO NOW HAVING A GOOD CHANCE IN CONTINUING NOT ONLY THROUGH THE SUMMER BUT PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE UPCOMING FALL...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID ON APRIL 30 2015...NO PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS IS IN DROUGHT OR EVEN ABNORMALLY DRY. FOR THE CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT SHOWING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER TEXAS...GO TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT SITE (LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE BURN BAN MAP OF APRIL 30... NO BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WET SOILS HAVE REALLY DECREASED THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. RESIDENTS PLANNING ON BURNING SHOULD STILL CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS TO ENSURE THAT BURNING IS ALLOWED...AND ALSO TO SEE IF ANY RESTRICTIONS ON HOW AND WHEN TO BURN ARE IN EFFECT. IF BURNING IS ALLOWED...BE SURE IT IS NOT DONE DURING WINDY DAYS WITH LOW HUMIDITY...AS THIS COULD RESULT IN A FIRE WHICH COULD EASILY GET OUT OF CONTROL. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WATERSHED DURING APRIL INCREASED WATER LEVELS FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR SYSTEM...WITH THE COMBINED CAPACITY NOW JUST BELOW 40 PERCENT. THAT MEANS THAT (AS OF THIS WRITING) THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI REMAINS IN STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS. SOME OF THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS ARE... * ONE WATERING DAY PER WEEK COINCIDING WITH THE CUSTOMER'S GARBAGE PICK UP DAY. RESTRICTIONS FOR CORPUS CHRISTI RESIDENTS INCLUDE... - WATERING OF LANDSCAPES BY SPRINKLER IRRIGATION IS NOT ALLOWED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. USE OF HAND-HELD BUCKET OR HOSE...OR DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM WITH SHUTOFF NOZZLES PERMITTED ANY TIME ON ANY DAY. - HOME CAR WASHINGS ARE TO BE DONE ONLY BY USE OF HAND-HELD BUCKET OR HOSE EQUIPPED WITH SHUTOFF NOZZLE. USE OF COMMERCIAL CAR WASHES STILL ALLOWED ANY TIME. - FILLING POOLS LIMITED TO DESIGNATED WATERING DAY. - MAINTAINING INTEGRITY OF BUILDING FOUNDATION BY USE OF DRIP IRRIGATION OR HAND HELD HOSE ONLY. - USE OF POTABLE WATER FOR IRRIGATION OF GOLF COURSES IS LIMITED TO DESIGNATED WATERING DAY. RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES NOT COMPLYING WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL RECEIVE A FINE. MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING ALL STAGES OF WATER RESTRICTIONS (AND REQUESTS FOR EXEMPTIONS AND VARIANCES) CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER. IF COMBINED CAPACITY LEVELS FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR SYSTEM GO ABOVE 40 PERCENT...AND REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR SOME TIME (BUT REMAIN BELOW 50 PERCENT)...THEN STAGE 1 RESTRICTIONS WILL GO INTO EFFECT (WHICH WILL MEAN NO WATERING BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM...WITH WATERING ALLOWED ON ANY DAY OF THE WEEK). ADDITIONAL MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE OBSERVED AT PORTLAND AND INGLESIDE. FOR MORE INFORMATION FOR THESE LOCATIONS...PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://PORTLANDTX.COM HTTP://INGLESIDETX.GOV FLOWS ALONG THE GUADALUPE RIVER HAVE REMAINED WELL ABOVE 150 CFS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THUS...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF VICTORIA...ALTHOUGH RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONSERVE WATER. THE CITY OF LAREDO CONTINUES TO ASK RESIDENTS TO CONSERVE WATER...BUT ALLOW WATERING AT ANY TIME. DESPITE THE END TO THE DROUGHT (AND INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS)...ALL RESIDENTS IN SOUTH TEXAS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO CONSERVE WATER. RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE STILL LOW...AND WATER CONSERVED NOW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE UPCOMING HOT SUMMER MONTHS. WATERING SHOULD BE DONE ONLY TO KEEP SOIL MOISTURE INTACT. ALSO...ONLY WATER IF RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN RECEIVED FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS. TURN OFF YOUR SPRINKLER SYSTEM WHEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO AVOID WATERING WHEN IT IS NOT NEEDED. IF YOU OVER-WATER YOUR LANDSCAPE...YOUR LAWN WILL REQUIRE MORE WATER TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE DAMAGE TO YOUR LAWN WHEN THE SUMMER APPROACHES AND YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO WATER YOUR LAWN AS YOU WISH. RESIDENTS WITH SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THEIR WATERING TO ENSURE THEIR SYSTEM IS WATERING THE LAWN AND NOT THE SIDEWALK OR STREET. ALSO...USE A SPRINKLER WHICH MAKES LARGER WATER DROPLETS...AND AVOID WATERING ON WINDY DAYS. FINALLY...TURN SOAKER HOSES SO THAT THE HOLES ARE ON THE BOTTOM...FACING THE GRASS. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED ON ANY WATER RESTRICTIONS WHICH MAY BE IMPOSED FOR THEIR LOCATION...AS ANY VIOLATIONS CAN RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FINES. MORE INFORMATION ON HOW TO CONSERVE WATER (AND DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANS) IS FOUND ON THE CITY WEBSITES AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT. ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HSA HAVE MAINTAINED EITHER MANDATORY OR VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS ON THEIR LOCAL PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS (PWS). A LIST OF LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HSA WHICH HAVE WATER RESTRICTIONS CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINGWATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML RESIDENTS CAN ALSO CHECK WITH THEIR LOCAL OFFICIALS OR MEDIA WHETHER WATER RESTRICTIONS FOR THEIR LOCALE HAVE BEEN ADDED...REMOVED...OR AMENDED. AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION IN MARCH AND APRIL...SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES AND PERCENTILES ARE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ENTIRE HSA. THE APRIL 29 SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAP SHOWS VALUES FROM +100 MM TO +140 MM OVER THE HSA. ALSO...SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILES ARE 90 PERCENT OR MORE. CROP MOISTURE INDICES (VALID FOR THE WEEK ENDING APRIL 25)...SHOW WET CONDITIONS (+2.0 TO +2.9) OVER ALL OF THE HSA. IN RECENT ARTICLES IN AGRI-LIFE TODAY DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL...MORE RAINSTORMS SWEPT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...LEAVING FIELDS TOO SOGGY TO WORK IN MANY AREAS...BUT GENERALLY BENEFITING WHEAT...PASTURES AND RANGELAND. THIS WAS ACCORDING TO TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE PERSONNEL. PLANTING OF CORN...COTTON... RICE...GRAIN SORGHUM AND SOYBEANS CONTINUED TO LAG BEHIND THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE. PLANTING OF SUNFLOWERS...AT 10 PERCENT COMPLETED...WAS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OF 9 PERCENT...ACCORDING TO THE AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENT REPORTS. THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH WINDS AND/OR HAIL IN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH TEXAS KNOCKED DOWN SOME WHEAT. GENERALLY...WINTER WHEAT WAS DOING WELL...THANKS TO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...ACCORDING TO THE AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENT REPORTS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS...AND PARTS OF SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS RECEIVED 10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. MORE THAN 15 INCHES WAS RECEIVED IN ISOLATED AREAS. ALSO IN AGRI-LIFE TODAY...AS OF APRIL 28...THE PLANTING OF SOME CROPS WAS CLOSER TO CATCHING UP THAN SOME OTHER CROPS. CORN PLANTINGS WERE CATCHING UP FROM A WEEK AGO...WITH 56 PERCENT OF THE CROP PLANTED COMPARED TO THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OF 66 PERCENT. COTTON WAS 9 PERCENT PLANTED COMPARED TO THE AVERAGE OF 17 PERCENT...AND GRAIN SORGHUM 57 PERCENT COMPARED TO THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OF 61 PERCENT. SUNFLOWER PLANTING...AT 38 PERCENT...WAS ACTUALLY AHEAD OF THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OF 21 PERCENT. FURTHER BEHIND WERE RICE AND SOYBEANS...ACCORDING TO THE AGRILIFE EXTENSION COUNTY AGENT REPORTS. ABOUT 64 PERCENT OF RICE WAS PLANTED AT THIS TIME COMPARED TO 87 PERCENT FOR THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE. ABOUT 21 PERCENT OF INTENDED SOYBEAN PLANTING WAS FINISHED...COMPARED TO THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OF 56 PERCENT. BUT PERCENTAGES DO NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY. IN EAST TEXAS...THOUGH HEAVY RAINS HAVE REPLENISHED GROUNDWATER...SEVERAL AGRILIFE EXTENSION COUNTY AGENTS REPORTED STANDING WATER IN CROP FIELDS AND PASTURES. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORTS WRITTEN DURING APRIL. FOR THE COASTAL BEND DISTRICT: * MORE RAIN AND HIGH WINDS DAMAGED SOME NEWLY EMERGED COTTON...AND FARMERS HAD TO REPLANT. THERE WAS ALSO HAIL DAMAGE TO SOME NEWLY PLANTED CROPS. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAINS MAY HAVE DAMAGED SOME WHEAT AND CORNFIELDS...REDUCING YIELDS. HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED IN ISOLATED AREAS. * NEARLY ALL STOCK TANKS WERE FULL OR AT NEAR CAPACITY. IN SOME COUNTIES...EXCESSIVE RAIN STALLED PLANTING. MANY PASTURES WERE FLOODED. IT WAS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF STANDING WATER IN SOME ROW CROP FIELDS WOULD CAUSE SOME ACREAGE TO BE REPLANTED. * SOME WHEAT WAS FLATTENED BY THE WEATHER...BUT OVERALL THE CROP LOOKED REALLY GOOD. WHEAT HARVESTING WAS EXPECTED TO START IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS...POSSIBLY SOONER. STINKBUG PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED IN WHEAT FIELDS. * A FEW FIELDS DRIED OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FIELDWORK...MOSTLY SPRAYING FOR WEEDS. RICE PLANTING WAS BEHIND. * MUCH COTTON AND GRAIN IN SOME AREAS WERE EXPECTED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS PREVENTED PLANTING FOR CROP INSURANCE. * LIVESTOCK WERE ALSO IN GOOD CONDITION AS THEY HAD PLENTY OF GRASS TO EAT. PASTURES WERE LUSH...AND CATTLE WERE GETTING FAT. CALVES WERE RAPIDLY GAINING WITH THE SPRING GREEN UP. * MOSQUITOES WERE EVERYWHERE. * PECAN PRODUCERS WERE SCOUTING FOR PECAN NUT CASEBEARER MOTHS. FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH DISTRICT (INCLUDES LA SALLE MCMULLEN COUNTIES): * RANGELAND...PASTURE AND SOIL MOISTURE WERE MOSTLY IMPROVED BY THE RAIN...BUT PLANTING WAS FURTHER DELAYED IN SOME AREAS. RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN GOOD CONDITION...THOUGH THERE WAS HEAVY WEED GROWTH. THE WEEDS WERE SUPPLYING EXCELLENT BROWSING FOR WILDLIFE. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF LIVESTOCK CEASED. * HAIL ACCOMPANIED THE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS. PRODUCERS WERE SPRAYING WHEAT AND OATS FOR RUST. * POTATOES WERE FLOWERING. CORN WAS DOING WELL...AND SORGHUM PLANTING WAS COMPLETED...WITH MOST OF THE CROP EMERGED. WHEAT WAS IN GOOD CONDITION...THOUGH WITH A BIT OF RUST REPORTED. * FUNGICIDE SPRAYING FOR RUST WAS DONE IN SOME AREAS...AND CROP IRRIGATION BEGAN. SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS. * WHEAT WAS STARTING TO TURN COLOR AND RIPEN...AND CORN AND SORGHUM WERE PROGRESSING WELL. IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SOUTH DISTRICT (INCLUDES DUVAL...JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES): * WHEAT WAS FLATTENED BY HIGH WINDS AND HAIL...BUT PRODUCERS BELIEVED THEY MAY STILL BE ABLE TO HARVEST THE CROP. * EARLY PLANTED GRAIN SORGHUM FIELDS WERE BEGINNING TO EMERGE. IN SOME AREAS...PRODUCERS WERE STILL HAVING PROBLEMS WITH FIELDS BEING TOO WET TO PLANT CORN...SORGHUM...COTTON...WHEAT AND OATS. * JIM WELLS COUNTY PRODUCERS MADE GOOD PROGRESS PLANTING GRAIN SORGHUM FOR PART OF THE PERIOD...THEN WERE STYMIED AGAIN BY MORE RAIN. * HAY PRODUCERS THERE MADE THEIR FIRST CUTTING FOR THE YEAR. * PLANTING IN KLEBERG AND KENEDY COUNTIES REMAINED AT A STANDSTILL DUE TO SATURATED FIELD CONDITIONS...WHICH STOPPED GRAIN SORGHUM AND COTTON PLANTING UNTIL THE SATURATED FIELDS DRIED OUT. * SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM MOSTLY ADEQUATE TO 100 PERCENT SURPLUS. IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH DISTRICT (INCLUDES WEBB COUNTY): * WHEAT AND OATS MADE PROGRESS...AND ALL COTTON WAS EMERGED. * WATERMELON TRANSPLANTING BEGAN BUT WAS HALTED DUE TO WET FIELD CONDITIONS. * SPINACH HARVESTING...BOTH FOR FRESH MARKET AND PROCESSED SPINACH VARIETIES...WAS COMPLETED. * SOIL MOISTURE WAS ADEQUATE THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN COUNTIES. * CABBAGES PROGRESSED WELL...AND ALL WHEAT AND OATS WERE HEADED OUT. CORN AND SORGHUM EMERGED. FIRE DANGER HAZARDS. ACCORDING TO THE 5 DAY AVERAGE FIRE DANGER MAP FROM THE TEXAS INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC) ON APRIL 29...THERE IS A LOW FIRE DANGER OVER ALL OF THE HSA. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES REMAIN 200 OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE HSA. WITH EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR MAY (AND THROUGH JULY)...KBDI VALUES WILL LIKELY (HOPEFULLY) REMAIN LOW. CLIMATE SUMMARY... WITH ONGOING EL-NINO CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUED THROUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL FOR SOUTH TEXAS. THE ENTIRE HSA RECEIVED OVER 3 INCHES...WITH THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE HSA AVERAGING BETWEEN 6 TO 8 INCHES. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS RECEIVED OVER 10 INCHES. THIS CALCULATES TO WELL OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL...WITH 300 TO 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LED TO WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. THIS IN TURN HAS LED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. FARTHER WEST...DAYS OF THICK CLOUD COVERAGE KEPT DAYTIME HIGHS LOW...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 2.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT CORPUS CHRISTI...2.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT VICTORIA...BUT -0.9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT LAREDO. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR APRIL...SO FAR FOR 2015...AND THE FOR THE 2015 WATER YEAR WHICH BEGAN ON OCTOBER 1 2014. ALL VALUES ARE IN INCHES...RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ARE SHOWN IN PARENTHESIS: 2015 WATER YEAR APRIL 2015 10/01/2014 - 04/30/2015 CORPUS CHRISTI 6.36 (+4.52) 15.94 (+8.74) 25.45 (+10.81) VICTORIA 6.81 (+3.99) 19.23 (+9.04) 27.81 (+ 7.98) LAREDO AIRPORT 4.48 (+3.06) 7.93 (+3.55) 10.88 (+ 2.51) FOR THE THREE CLIMATE STATIONS...THE 2015 PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL RAINFALL ARE: 221.4 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...188.7 PERCENT AT VICTORIA...AND 181.1 PERCENT AT LAREDO. THE 2015 WATER YEAR PERCENTAGES THROUGH THE END OF MARCH 2015 ARE: 173.8 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...140.2 PERCENT AT VICTORIA... AND 130.0 PERCENT AT LAREDO. THE PROSPECTS FOR A PROLONGED EL-NINO EVENT CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EL-NINO WILL LAST THROUGH THE 2015 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER...AND A MORE THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL LAST THROUGH AUTUMN. THE REASON FOR THE CHANGE HAS BEEN A GREATER INCREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. IF EL-NINO LASTS THROUGH AUTUMN...THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL SEASON WILL LIKELY BE QUIETER...AS EL-NINO EVENTS TEND TO CREATE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THUS SUPPRESS ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT RAINFALL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE TROPICAL SEASON...BUT THAT ORGANIZED TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. THE OCEANIC NINO INDEX (ONI) IS BASED ON SST DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION...AND IS THE PRINCIPAL MEASURE FOR MONITORING...ASSESSING AND PREDICTING ENSO. THE MOST RECENT ONI VALUE (JANUARY 2015 - MARCH 2015) WAS +0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS MEETS THE +0.5 CELSIUS OR GREATER CRITERION FOR EL-NINO EVENTS. THIS IS THE FIFTH THREE MONTH INTERVAL OF EL-NINO TYPE TEMPERATURES. CONSENSUS FORECASTS THROUGH THE END OF 2015 HAVE EL-NINO CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY THAN EITHER ENSO-NEUTRAL OR LA- NINA CONDITIONS...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 60 PERCENT OR GREATER. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (MAY 1 THROUGH MAY 7) IS AS FOLLOWS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MAY 1 THROUGH SUNDAY MAY 3...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BY TUESDAY MAY 5...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MAY 7...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MAY 4 THROUGH MAY 7 ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE HSA... TO BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (MAY 1 THROUGH MAY 7) IS AS FOLLOWS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (WITH BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS) THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BECOME NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (WITH ABOVE NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES) MAY 4 THROUGH MAY 7. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID FOR THE PERIOD MAY 8 THROUGH MAY 14...CALLS FOR GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MONTHLY AND THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OUTLOOKS ARE TYPICAL FOR SOUTH TEXAS DURING EL-NINO EVENTS. THE MAY 2015 RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES OUTLOOKS...BOTH ISSUED ON APRIL 30...CALLS FOR A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE HSA. SIMILARLY...THE THREE MONTH RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR MAY THROUGH JULY...ISSUED ON APRIL 16...INDICATE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE HSA. THE MAY 2015 DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED ON APRIL 30...SHOWS NO DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SIMILARLY...THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...VALID THROUGH JULY 31 (AND ISSUED ON APRIL 16)...EXPECTS NO DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HSA. THE LAGGED SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH THE END OF JULY 2015 CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE HSA...WITH THE GREATEST SURPLUSES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... NEARLY SATURATED SOILS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BROUGHT RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS DURING APRIL. AS OF MAY 1 2015...MOST RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS OVER THE HSA REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE ONLY LOCATIONS SHOWING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ARE THE FRIO RIVER AT TILDEN...AND TWO LOCATIONS BELOW RESERVOIRS (NUECES RIVER AT MATHIS AND COLETO CREEK AT HIGHWAY 59 NEAR VICTORIA). LEVELS ON THE RIO GRANDE ARE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. FLOWS ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER (INCLUDING AT VICTORIA) WERE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF APRIL...EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE TWICE DURING THE MONTH. FLOWS ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT VICTORIA HAVE BEEN WELL OVER 1000 CFS SINCE MID APRIL. FINALLY...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL FINALLY FELL IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI WATERSHED...HELPING TO SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE COMBINED CAPACITY FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR SYSTEM. STILL...CHOKE CANYON REMAINS BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED TO FILL THE DAM. FARTHER EAST...COLETO CREEK AND LAKE TEXANA ARE ABOVE NORMAL POOL LEVELS AT THE END OF APRIL. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE CURRENT LEVELS (AS OF APRIL 30 AND PREVIOUS LEVELS AS OF APRIL 2) AT PERTINENT SOUTH TEXAS RESERVOIRS. RESERVOIR NORMAL LATEST PERCENT PREVIOUS CHANGE POOL POOL CAPACITY POOL (FT) CHOKE CANYON 220.5 193.0 26.3 192.3 +0.7 LAKE C. C. 94.0 90.3 58.8 87.8 +2.5 LAKE TEXANA 44.0 44.1 100.6 44.2 -0.1 COLETO CREEK 98.0 98.4 N/A 98.4 0.0 CANYON DAM 909.0 899.0 79.9 897.9 +1.1 LAKE AMISTAD 1117.0 1088.2 62.7 1088.2 0.0 THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR SYSTEM AS OF APRIL 30 IS AT 39.4 PERCENT...WHICH IS 5.2 PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN THE BEGINNING OF APRIL 2015. TO BRING CHOKE CANYON RESERVOIR CLOSER TO NORMAL POOL LEVELS BEFORE SUMMER...IT WILL TAKE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SLOW- MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM (COMBINED WITH RICH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE) TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SUFFICIENT RUN-OFF (LIKELY RESULTING IN FLOODING). WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR EL-NINO TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH SUMMER (IF NOT THROUGH THE END OF 2015)...THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL APPEAR PROMISING. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (OR GREATER) DEVELOP OVER A NOTABLE PORTION OF THE REGION. RELATED WEB SITES... NWS CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT PAGE: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)... HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOKS...DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)... HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MONITOR.HTML U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)... HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE... HTTP://WWW.TXWIN.NET/MONITORING/METEOROLOGICAL/DROUGHT/INDICES.HTM NOAA DROUGHT PAGE... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER... HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/ NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER... HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD DROUGHT WEBSITE HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/ VEGETATION DROUGHT RESPONSE INDEX HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU.VEGDRI/VEGDRI_MAIN.HTM?EV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER... HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/SPI/SPI.HTML AGNEWS: TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM (CROP AND WEATHER REPORT)... HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)... HTTP://WWW.TAMU.EDU/TICC/ TEXAS BURN BANS...HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG TEXAS KBDI...HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (WATER RESTRICTIONS): WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML CORPUS CHRISTI WATER DEPARTMENT... WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER CORPUS CHRISTI WATER CONSERVATION WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/ASSETS/DEPARTMENTS/WATER/FILES/WATERCONSERVATIONPLAN.PDF VICTORIA WATER CONSERVATION: WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG/PIO/PDFS/WATERSAVINGMETHODS.PDF LAREDO WATER RESTRICTIONS AND CONSERVATION... WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US/UTILITIES05/ORDINANCE/2009_ORDINANCE.PDF CITY OF VICTORIA WEB SITE...WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG CITY OF LAREDO WEB SITE...WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US CITY OF PORTLAND WEB SITE...WWW.PORTLANDTX.COM TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORTS...WWW.TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ IBWC...HTTP://IBWC.STATE.GOV/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... 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