National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: DGTCRP Received: 2015-05-01 10:07 UTC
868
AXUS74 KCRP 011007
DGTCRP
TXZ229>234-239>247-031015-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
507 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015
...DROUGHT AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS END OVER SOUTH TEXAS...
...CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE 2015 SUMMER...
...THERE IS A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EL-NINO
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AUTUMN 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE IMPACTS FROM EL-NINO CONTINUED FOR SOUTH TEXAS DURING
APRIL...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). MOST AREAS SAW MORE THAN 300
PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR APRIL...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
AREAS WHICH WERE IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY DURING THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. THIS MAKES TWO CONSECUTIVE MONTHS WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...EVER SINCE EL-NINO
OFFICIALLY BEGAN OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN.
DURING THE PAST 180 DAYS...ESSENTIALLY ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS HAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE (AND
SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES) OVER THE REGION. ONLY CHOKE CANYON
RESERVOIR REMAINS AT VERY LOW LEVELS (WHICH MAKES THE COMBINED
CAPACITY FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR SYSTEM STILL AT STAGE 2
WATER RESTRICTION LEVELS). IN ANY CASE...DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL OBSERVED NOT ONLY DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS BUT DURING
THE PAST 180 DAYS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED OVER
ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. WITH EL-NINO NOW HAVING A GOOD CHANCE IN
CONTINUING NOT ONLY THROUGH THE SUMMER BUT PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
UPCOMING FALL...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR IF
NOT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR.
ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID ON APRIL 30
2015...NO PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS IS IN DROUGHT OR EVEN ABNORMALLY
DRY.
FOR THE CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT SHOWING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER TEXAS...GO TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT SITE
(LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE BURN BAN MAP OF APRIL 30...
NO BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WET SOILS HAVE REALLY
DECREASED THE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. RESIDENTS PLANNING ON BURNING
SHOULD STILL CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS TO ENSURE THAT BURNING IS
ALLOWED...AND ALSO TO SEE IF ANY RESTRICTIONS ON HOW AND WHEN TO
BURN ARE IN EFFECT. IF BURNING IS ALLOWED...BE SURE IT IS NOT DONE
DURING WINDY DAYS WITH LOW HUMIDITY...AS THIS COULD RESULT IN A
FIRE WHICH COULD EASILY GET OUT OF CONTROL.
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WATERSHED DURING APRIL INCREASED WATER
LEVELS FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR SYSTEM...WITH THE COMBINED
CAPACITY NOW JUST BELOW 40 PERCENT. THAT MEANS THAT (AS OF THIS
WRITING) THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI REMAINS IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SOME OF THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS ARE...
* ONE WATERING DAY PER WEEK COINCIDING WITH THE CUSTOMER'S GARBAGE
PICK UP DAY. RESTRICTIONS FOR CORPUS CHRISTI RESIDENTS
INCLUDE...
- WATERING OF LANDSCAPES BY SPRINKLER IRRIGATION IS NOT ALLOWED
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. USE OF HAND-HELD BUCKET OR HOSE...OR
DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM WITH SHUTOFF NOZZLES PERMITTED ANY TIME
ON ANY DAY.
- HOME CAR WASHINGS ARE TO BE DONE ONLY BY USE OF HAND-HELD
BUCKET OR HOSE EQUIPPED WITH SHUTOFF NOZZLE. USE OF COMMERCIAL
CAR WASHES STILL ALLOWED ANY TIME.
- FILLING POOLS LIMITED TO DESIGNATED WATERING DAY.
- MAINTAINING INTEGRITY OF BUILDING FOUNDATION BY USE OF DRIP
IRRIGATION OR HAND HELD HOSE ONLY.
- USE OF POTABLE WATER FOR IRRIGATION OF GOLF COURSES IS LIMITED
TO DESIGNATED WATERING DAY.
RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES NOT COMPLYING WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS
WILL RECEIVE A FINE. MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING ALL STAGES OF
WATER RESTRICTIONS (AND REQUESTS FOR EXEMPTIONS AND VARIANCES) CAN
BE FOUND AT: WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER. IF COMBINED
CAPACITY LEVELS FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR SYSTEM GO ABOVE
40 PERCENT...AND REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR SOME TIME (BUT REMAIN
BELOW 50 PERCENT)...THEN STAGE 1 RESTRICTIONS WILL GO INTO
EFFECT (WHICH WILL MEAN NO WATERING BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM...WITH
WATERING ALLOWED ON ANY DAY OF THE WEEK).
ADDITIONAL MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE OBSERVED AT PORTLAND AND
INGLESIDE. FOR MORE INFORMATION FOR THESE LOCATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT:
HTTP://PORTLANDTX.COM
HTTP://INGLESIDETX.GOV
FLOWS ALONG THE GUADALUPE RIVER HAVE REMAINED WELL ABOVE 150
CFS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THUS...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF VICTORIA...ALTHOUGH RESIDENTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CONSERVE WATER.
THE CITY OF LAREDO CONTINUES TO ASK RESIDENTS TO CONSERVE
WATER...BUT ALLOW WATERING AT ANY TIME.
DESPITE THE END TO THE DROUGHT (AND INCREASE IN WATER
LEVELS)...ALL RESIDENTS IN SOUTH TEXAS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED
TO CONTINUE TO CONSERVE WATER. RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE STILL
LOW...AND WATER CONSERVED NOW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE UPCOMING HOT
SUMMER MONTHS. WATERING SHOULD BE DONE ONLY TO KEEP SOIL MOISTURE
INTACT. ALSO...ONLY WATER IF RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN RECEIVED FOR A
COUPLE OF WEEKS.
TURN OFF YOUR SPRINKLER SYSTEM WHEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO AVOID WATERING WHEN IT IS NOT NEEDED. IF YOU OVER-WATER YOUR
LANDSCAPE...YOUR LAWN WILL REQUIRE MORE WATER TO MAINTAIN ITSELF.
THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE DAMAGE TO YOUR LAWN WHEN THE SUMMER
APPROACHES AND YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO WATER YOUR LAWN AS YOU WISH.
RESIDENTS WITH SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THEIR
WATERING TO ENSURE THEIR SYSTEM IS WATERING THE LAWN AND NOT THE
SIDEWALK OR STREET. ALSO...USE A SPRINKLER WHICH MAKES LARGER
WATER DROPLETS...AND AVOID WATERING ON WINDY DAYS. FINALLY...TURN
SOAKER HOSES SO THAT THE HOLES ARE ON THE BOTTOM...FACING THE
GRASS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED ON ANY WATER RESTRICTIONS WHICH
MAY BE IMPOSED FOR THEIR LOCATION...AS ANY VIOLATIONS CAN RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT FINES. MORE INFORMATION ON HOW TO CONSERVE WATER
(AND DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANS) IS FOUND ON THE CITY WEBSITES
AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT.
ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HSA HAVE MAINTAINED EITHER
MANDATORY OR VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS ON THEIR LOCAL PUBLIC WATER
SYSTEMS (PWS). A LIST OF LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HSA WHICH HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINGWATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML
RESIDENTS CAN ALSO CHECK WITH THEIR LOCAL OFFICIALS OR MEDIA
WHETHER WATER RESTRICTIONS FOR THEIR LOCALE HAVE BEEN
ADDED...REMOVED...OR AMENDED.
AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION IN MARCH AND APRIL...SOIL
MOISTURE ANOMALIES AND PERCENTILES ARE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
ENTIRE HSA. THE APRIL 29 SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAP SHOWS VALUES
FROM +100 MM TO +140 MM OVER THE HSA. ALSO...SOIL MOISTURE
PERCENTILES ARE 90 PERCENT OR MORE. CROP MOISTURE INDICES (VALID
FOR THE WEEK ENDING APRIL 25)...SHOW WET CONDITIONS (+2.0 TO
+2.9) OVER ALL OF THE HSA.
IN RECENT ARTICLES IN AGRI-LIFE TODAY DURING THE MONTH OF
APRIL...MORE RAINSTORMS SWEPT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...LEAVING
FIELDS TOO SOGGY TO WORK IN MANY AREAS...BUT GENERALLY BENEFITING
WHEAT...PASTURES AND RANGELAND. THIS WAS ACCORDING TO TEXAS A&M
AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE PERSONNEL. PLANTING OF CORN...COTTON...
RICE...GRAIN SORGHUM AND SOYBEANS CONTINUED TO LAG BEHIND THE
FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE. PLANTING OF SUNFLOWERS...AT 10 PERCENT
COMPLETED...WAS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE
OF 9 PERCENT...ACCORDING TO THE AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENT REPORTS.
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH WINDS AND/OR HAIL IN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH TEXAS KNOCKED DOWN SOME WHEAT. GENERALLY...WINTER WHEAT
WAS DOING WELL...THANKS TO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...ACCORDING TO THE
AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENT REPORTS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHEAST
REGIONS...AND PARTS OF SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS RECEIVED 10 INCHES OR
MORE OF RAIN IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. MORE THAN 15 INCHES WAS
RECEIVED IN ISOLATED AREAS.
ALSO IN AGRI-LIFE TODAY...AS OF APRIL 28...THE PLANTING OF SOME
CROPS WAS CLOSER TO CATCHING UP THAN SOME OTHER CROPS. CORN
PLANTINGS WERE CATCHING UP FROM A WEEK AGO...WITH 56 PERCENT OF
THE CROP PLANTED COMPARED TO THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OF 66 PERCENT.
COTTON WAS 9 PERCENT PLANTED COMPARED TO THE AVERAGE OF 17
PERCENT...AND GRAIN SORGHUM 57 PERCENT COMPARED TO THE FIVE-YEAR
AVERAGE OF 61 PERCENT. SUNFLOWER PLANTING...AT 38 PERCENT...WAS
ACTUALLY AHEAD OF THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OF 21 PERCENT. FURTHER
BEHIND WERE RICE AND SOYBEANS...ACCORDING TO THE AGRILIFE
EXTENSION COUNTY AGENT REPORTS. ABOUT 64 PERCENT OF RICE WAS
PLANTED AT THIS TIME COMPARED TO 87 PERCENT FOR THE FIVE-YEAR
AVERAGE. ABOUT 21 PERCENT OF INTENDED SOYBEAN PLANTING WAS
FINISHED...COMPARED TO THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OF 56 PERCENT. BUT
PERCENTAGES DO NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY. IN EAST TEXAS...THOUGH
HEAVY RAINS HAVE REPLENISHED GROUNDWATER...SEVERAL AGRILIFE
EXTENSION COUNTY AGENTS REPORTED STANDING WATER IN CROP FIELDS AND
PASTURES.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY THE TEXAS CROP AND
WEATHER REPORTS WRITTEN DURING APRIL.
FOR THE COASTAL BEND DISTRICT:
* MORE RAIN AND HIGH WINDS DAMAGED SOME NEWLY EMERGED COTTON...AND
FARMERS HAD TO REPLANT. THERE WAS ALSO HAIL DAMAGE TO SOME NEWLY
PLANTED CROPS. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAINS MAY HAVE
DAMAGED SOME WHEAT AND CORNFIELDS...REDUCING YIELDS. HAIL WAS
ALSO REPORTED IN ISOLATED AREAS.
* NEARLY ALL STOCK TANKS WERE FULL OR AT NEAR CAPACITY. IN SOME
COUNTIES...EXCESSIVE RAIN STALLED PLANTING. MANY PASTURES WERE
FLOODED. IT WAS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF STANDING WATER IN SOME ROW
CROP FIELDS WOULD CAUSE SOME ACREAGE TO BE REPLANTED.
* SOME WHEAT WAS FLATTENED BY THE WEATHER...BUT OVERALL THE CROP
LOOKED REALLY GOOD. WHEAT HARVESTING WAS EXPECTED TO START IN A
COUPLE OF WEEKS...POSSIBLY SOONER. STINKBUG PRESSURE WAS
OBSERVED IN WHEAT FIELDS.
* A FEW FIELDS DRIED OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FIELDWORK...MOSTLY
SPRAYING FOR WEEDS. RICE PLANTING WAS BEHIND.
* MUCH COTTON AND GRAIN IN SOME AREAS WERE EXPECTED TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS PREVENTED PLANTING FOR CROP INSURANCE.
* LIVESTOCK WERE ALSO IN GOOD CONDITION AS THEY HAD PLENTY OF
GRASS TO EAT. PASTURES WERE LUSH...AND CATTLE WERE GETTING FAT.
CALVES WERE RAPIDLY GAINING WITH THE SPRING GREEN UP.
* MOSQUITOES WERE EVERYWHERE.
* PECAN PRODUCERS WERE SCOUTING FOR PECAN NUT CASEBEARER MOTHS.
FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH DISTRICT (INCLUDES LA SALLE
MCMULLEN COUNTIES):
* RANGELAND...PASTURE AND SOIL MOISTURE WERE MOSTLY IMPROVED BY
THE RAIN...BUT PLANTING WAS FURTHER DELAYED IN SOME AREAS.
RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN GOOD CONDITION...THOUGH THERE WAS
HEAVY WEED GROWTH. THE WEEDS WERE SUPPLYING EXCELLENT BROWSING
FOR WILDLIFE. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF LIVESTOCK CEASED.
* HAIL ACCOMPANIED THE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS. PRODUCERS
WERE SPRAYING WHEAT AND OATS FOR RUST.
* POTATOES WERE FLOWERING. CORN WAS DOING WELL...AND SORGHUM
PLANTING WAS COMPLETED...WITH MOST OF THE CROP EMERGED. WHEAT
WAS IN GOOD CONDITION...THOUGH WITH A BIT OF RUST REPORTED.
* FUNGICIDE SPRAYING FOR RUST WAS DONE IN SOME AREAS...AND CROP
IRRIGATION BEGAN. SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS.
* WHEAT WAS STARTING TO TURN COLOR AND RIPEN...AND CORN AND
SORGHUM WERE PROGRESSING WELL.
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SOUTH DISTRICT (INCLUDES DUVAL...JIM
WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES):
* WHEAT WAS FLATTENED BY HIGH WINDS AND HAIL...BUT PRODUCERS
BELIEVED THEY MAY STILL BE ABLE TO HARVEST THE CROP.
* EARLY PLANTED GRAIN SORGHUM FIELDS WERE BEGINNING TO EMERGE. IN
SOME AREAS...PRODUCERS WERE STILL HAVING PROBLEMS WITH FIELDS
BEING TOO WET TO PLANT CORN...SORGHUM...COTTON...WHEAT AND OATS.
* JIM WELLS COUNTY PRODUCERS MADE GOOD PROGRESS PLANTING GRAIN
SORGHUM FOR PART OF THE PERIOD...THEN WERE STYMIED AGAIN BY
MORE RAIN.
* HAY PRODUCERS THERE MADE THEIR FIRST CUTTING FOR THE
YEAR.
* PLANTING IN KLEBERG AND KENEDY COUNTIES REMAINED AT A
STANDSTILL DUE TO SATURATED FIELD CONDITIONS...WHICH STOPPED
GRAIN SORGHUM AND COTTON PLANTING UNTIL THE SATURATED FIELDS
DRIED OUT.
* SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM MOSTLY ADEQUATE TO 100 PERCENT
SURPLUS.
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH DISTRICT (INCLUDES WEBB COUNTY):
* WHEAT AND OATS MADE PROGRESS...AND ALL COTTON WAS EMERGED.
* WATERMELON TRANSPLANTING BEGAN BUT WAS HALTED DUE TO WET FIELD
CONDITIONS.
* SPINACH HARVESTING...BOTH FOR FRESH MARKET AND PROCESSED
SPINACH VARIETIES...WAS COMPLETED.
* SOIL MOISTURE WAS ADEQUATE THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
* CABBAGES PROGRESSED WELL...AND ALL WHEAT AND OATS WERE HEADED
OUT. CORN AND SORGHUM EMERGED.
FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
ACCORDING TO THE 5 DAY AVERAGE FIRE DANGER MAP FROM THE TEXAS
INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC) ON APRIL 29...THERE IS A
LOW FIRE DANGER OVER ALL OF THE HSA. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES
REMAIN 200 OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE HSA. WITH EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL FOR MAY (AND THROUGH JULY)...KBDI VALUES WILL LIKELY
(HOPEFULLY) REMAIN LOW.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
WITH ONGOING EL-NINO CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUED
THROUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL FOR SOUTH TEXAS. THE ENTIRE HSA
RECEIVED OVER 3 INCHES...WITH THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE HSA AVERAGING
BETWEEN 6 TO 8 INCHES. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS RECEIVED OVER 10 INCHES. THIS CALCULATES TO WELL OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL...WITH 300 TO
600 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LED TO
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. THIS IN TURN HAS LED TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. FARTHER WEST...DAYS OF THICK CLOUD
COVERAGE KEPT DAYTIME HIGHS LOW...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL...THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 2.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT CORPUS
CHRISTI...2.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT VICTORIA...BUT -0.9 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AT LAREDO.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
APRIL...SO FAR FOR 2015...AND THE FOR THE 2015 WATER YEAR WHICH
BEGAN ON OCTOBER 1 2014. ALL VALUES ARE IN INCHES...RAINFALL
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ARE SHOWN IN PARENTHESIS:
2015 WATER YEAR
APRIL 2015 10/01/2014 -
04/30/2015
CORPUS CHRISTI 6.36 (+4.52) 15.94 (+8.74) 25.45 (+10.81)
VICTORIA 6.81 (+3.99) 19.23 (+9.04) 27.81 (+ 7.98)
LAREDO AIRPORT 4.48 (+3.06) 7.93 (+3.55) 10.88 (+ 2.51)
FOR THE THREE CLIMATE STATIONS...THE 2015 PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL
RAINFALL ARE: 221.4 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...188.7 PERCENT AT
VICTORIA...AND 181.1 PERCENT AT LAREDO.
THE 2015 WATER YEAR PERCENTAGES THROUGH THE END OF MARCH 2015
ARE: 173.8 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...140.2 PERCENT AT
VICTORIA... AND 130.0 PERCENT AT LAREDO.
THE PROSPECTS FOR A PROLONGED EL-NINO EVENT CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EL-NINO WILL LAST THROUGH THE
2015 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER...AND A MORE THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT IT WILL LAST THROUGH AUTUMN. THE REASON FOR THE CHANGE
HAS BEEN A GREATER INCREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. IF EL-NINO LASTS THROUGH AUTUMN...THE
ATLANTIC TROPICAL SEASON WILL LIKELY BE QUIETER...AS EL-NINO
EVENTS TEND TO CREATE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THUS SUPPRESS
ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT
RAINFALL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE TROPICAL SEASON...BUT
THAT ORGANIZED TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL.
THE OCEANIC NINO INDEX (ONI) IS BASED ON SST DEPARTURES FROM
AVERAGES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION...AND IS THE PRINCIPAL MEASURE FOR
MONITORING...ASSESSING AND PREDICTING ENSO. THE MOST RECENT ONI
VALUE (JANUARY 2015 - MARCH 2015) WAS +0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS
MEETS THE +0.5 CELSIUS OR GREATER CRITERION FOR EL-NINO EVENTS.
THIS IS THE FIFTH THREE MONTH INTERVAL OF EL-NINO TYPE
TEMPERATURES. CONSENSUS FORECASTS THROUGH THE END OF 2015 HAVE
EL-NINO CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY THAN EITHER ENSO-NEUTRAL OR LA-
NINA CONDITIONS...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 60 PERCENT OR GREATER.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (MAY 1 THROUGH
MAY 7) IS AS FOLLOWS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY MAY 1 THROUGH SUNDAY MAY 3...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
BY TUESDAY MAY 5...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MAY 7...AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT TEXAS. AT THIS
TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MAY 4 THROUGH MAY 7 ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM AROUND 1/4 INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE HSA...
TO BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (MAY 1 THROUGH
MAY 7) IS AS FOLLOWS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL (WITH BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS) THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BECOME NEAR TO PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (WITH ABOVE NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES) MAY
4 THROUGH MAY 7.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID FOR THE PERIOD MAY 8 THROUGH
MAY 14...CALLS FOR GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE MONTHLY AND THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OUTLOOKS ARE
TYPICAL FOR SOUTH TEXAS DURING EL-NINO EVENTS. THE MAY 2015
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES OUTLOOKS...BOTH ISSUED ON APRIL
30...CALLS FOR A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE HSA. SIMILARLY...THE
THREE MONTH RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR MAY THROUGH
JULY...ISSUED ON APRIL 16...INDICATE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE HSA.
THE MAY 2015 DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED ON APRIL 30...SHOWS NO
DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SIMILARLY...THE SEASONAL
DROUGHT OUTLOOK...VALID THROUGH JULY 31 (AND ISSUED ON APRIL
16)...EXPECTS NO DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HSA.
THE LAGGED SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH THE END OF JULY 2015
CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER
ALL OF THE HSA...WITH THE GREATEST SURPLUSES OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
NEARLY SATURATED SOILS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BROUGHT RIVER AND
CREEK LEVELS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS DURING
APRIL. AS OF MAY 1 2015...MOST RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS OVER THE HSA
REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE ONLY LOCATIONS SHOWING BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS ARE THE FRIO RIVER AT TILDEN...AND TWO LOCATIONS
BELOW RESERVOIRS (NUECES RIVER AT MATHIS AND COLETO CREEK AT
HIGHWAY 59 NEAR VICTORIA). LEVELS ON THE RIO GRANDE ARE NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS.
FLOWS ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER (INCLUDING AT VICTORIA) WERE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF APRIL...EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE TWICE DURING THE
MONTH. FLOWS ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT VICTORIA HAVE BEEN WELL
OVER 1000 CFS SINCE MID APRIL.
FINALLY...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL FINALLY FELL IN THE CORPUS
CHRISTI WATERSHED...HELPING TO SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE
COMBINED CAPACITY FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR SYSTEM.
STILL...CHOKE CANYON REMAINS BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED TO FILL THE DAM. FARTHER
EAST...COLETO CREEK AND LAKE TEXANA ARE ABOVE NORMAL POOL LEVELS
AT THE END OF APRIL.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE CURRENT LEVELS (AS OF APRIL 30 AND
PREVIOUS LEVELS AS OF APRIL 2) AT PERTINENT SOUTH TEXAS
RESERVOIRS.
RESERVOIR NORMAL LATEST PERCENT PREVIOUS CHANGE
POOL POOL CAPACITY POOL (FT)
CHOKE CANYON 220.5 193.0 26.3 192.3 +0.7
LAKE C. C. 94.0 90.3 58.8 87.8 +2.5
LAKE TEXANA 44.0 44.1 100.6 44.2 -0.1
COLETO CREEK 98.0 98.4 N/A 98.4 0.0
CANYON DAM 909.0 899.0 79.9 897.9 +1.1
LAKE AMISTAD 1117.0 1088.2 62.7 1088.2 0.0
THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR
SYSTEM AS OF APRIL 30 IS AT 39.4 PERCENT...WHICH IS 5.2
PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN THE BEGINNING OF APRIL 2015.
TO BRING CHOKE CANYON RESERVOIR CLOSER TO NORMAL POOL LEVELS
BEFORE SUMMER...IT WILL TAKE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM (COMBINED WITH RICH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE) TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SUFFICIENT RUN-OFF (LIKELY
RESULTING IN FLOODING). WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR EL-NINO TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH SUMMER (IF NOT THROUGH THE END OF
2015)...THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL APPEAR PROMISING.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (OR GREATER) DEVELOP OVER
A NOTABLE PORTION OF THE REGION.
RELATED WEB SITES...
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE
OUTLOOKS...DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MONITOR.HTML
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S
U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE...
HTTP://WWW.TXWIN.NET/MONITORING/METEOROLOGICAL/DROUGHT/INDICES.HTM
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD DROUGHT WEBSITE
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/
VEGETATION DROUGHT RESPONSE INDEX
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU.VEGDRI/VEGDRI_MAIN.HTM?EV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/SPI/SPI.HTML
AGNEWS: TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM (CROP AND WEATHER REPORT)...
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG
TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)...
HTTP://WWW.TAMU.EDU/TICC/
TEXAS BURN BANS...HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG
TEXAS KBDI...HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG
TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (WATER RESTRICTIONS):
WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML
CORPUS CHRISTI WATER DEPARTMENT...
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER
CORPUS CHRISTI WATER CONSERVATION
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/ASSETS/DEPARTMENTS/WATER/FILES/WATERCONSERVATIONPLAN.PDF
VICTORIA WATER CONSERVATION:
WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG/PIO/PDFS/WATERSAVINGMETHODS.PDF
LAREDO WATER RESTRICTIONS AND CONSERVATION...
WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US/UTILITIES05/ORDINANCE/2009_ORDINANCE.PDF
CITY OF VICTORIA WEB SITE...WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG
CITY OF LAREDO WEB SITE...WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US
CITY OF PORTLAND WEB SITE...WWW.PORTLANDTX.COM
TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORTS...WWW.TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
IBWC...HTTP://IBWC.STATE.GOV/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE
AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
426 PINSON DRIVE
CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406
PHONE: 361-289-0959
SR-CRP.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
GW/CB