National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2019-03-15 17:10 UTC


745 
FXUS64 KSJT 151710
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1210 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours. North to Northeast wind gusts to 20 KTS this 
afternoon, with winds becoming light this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through tonight. Northeast winds this morning will become light
this evening as high pressure settles into the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather for the next 24 hours expected across West Central 
Texas. Surface high pressure will settle into the area this 
afternoon, and then begin to shift off to the east tonight. A little 
high cloudiness will stream across the area, but should have little 
effect on temperatures this afternoon. Highs will be cooler today, 
mainly in the mid 50s. Light winds continue tonight and will make 
for a decent radiational cooling night. Temperatures will flirt with 
freezing by sunrise Saturday morning, with lows in the low to mid 
30s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)

The overall weather pattern is expected to be quiet for our area 
this weekend through much of next week. 

A weak upper low will be over Arizona this weekend. A weak impulse 
aloft will move east-northeast into northwestern Texas on Saturday. 
Only expecting some patchy middle and high clouds with this feature. 
Temperatures will remain below normal this weekend, although Sunday 
highs (lower to mid 60s) should be about 5 degrees warmer than 
Saturday. 

Some increase in cloud  cover is expected on Monday, especially for 
the southwestern third of our area, with increasingly moist 850mb 
east-southeast flow. The aforementioned weak upper low is progged to 
open into a shortwave trough and weaken while moving east across 
West Texas. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible with this 
system across parts of the Big Bend and Trans-Pecos on Monday, and 
possibly as far east as Crockett County. Keeping silent 10 PoPs 
across the southwestern part of our area at this time, but some 
mentionable PoPs may need to be added if models are consistent with 
the track of the system and show sufficient lift and moisture this 
far east.  

As return low-level flow gets a little more established during the 
middle of next week, our area should have an increase in low cloud 
cover. Temperatures will also be on a warming trend and are expected 
to be closer to normal by that time. Weak upper ridging is progged 
over Texas and the southern Plains.  

Late next week, an upper low and trough are progged to move east 
across the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains and Texas. 
The GFS is about 24 hours faster with the progression of the system 
into our area. The slower ECMWF has a deeper trough farther south 
across Texas, and is wetter for our area. Given the model 
differences and uncertainty with the details at Day 7 and just 
beyond, we are holding off with any mentionable PoPs Thursday, and 
introducing a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms Thursday night 
for the western two-thirds of our area. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 34  57  36  62 /   0   5   5   0 
San Angelo 	 32  59  34  64 /   0   5  10   0 
Junction 	 33  56  34  62 /   0  10  10   0 
Brownwood 	 33  57  35  61 /   0   5  10   0 
Sweetwater 	 32  57  37  61 /   0   5   5   0 
Ozona      	 32  58  35  62 /   0  10  10   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04