National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2019-02-12 10:20 UTC


848 
FXUS64 KSJT 121020
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
420 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Dry, quiet weather expected through the next 24 hours. Dry air, 
moving in at the surface behind the cold front, and in northwest 
flow behind the exiting upper level trough will result in mostly 
sunny skies. Although a cold front did move through, temperatures
will be similar or possibly a few degrees warmer today in the
upper 50s to lower 60s due to sunny skies, and downsloping 
westerly low level flow. Overnight, dry air, light winds, and
clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 30s area-
wide, with the possibility of a few valley locations reaching near
freezing or even colder possible. 

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)

...Warm and dry to through the weekend. Strong cold arrives next 
week...

(Wednesday through Saturday)

The weather during this time period will be dry as a weak high
pressure settles over the area. Dry air will continue to advect
into the region as southwesterly flow continues. Temperatures on
Wednesday will be in the mid 60s. By Thursday, another Pacific
front will move eastward across western Texas. Ahead of this
front, downsloping west winds will bring even drier air and warm
temperatures. Temperatures will quickly jump into the upper 70s
and possibly some 80 degree readings as compressional heating
ahead of the front will correlate with peak daytime heating on
Thursday. Fire weather concerns will increase as this front passes
through our area as the warm, dry air lowers relative humidity 
values into the lower 20s. The winds do not look too strong behind
this front and this could help reduce the fire weather threat.
 
The front exits our eastern counties by Thursday night ahead of a 
southward moving cold front. This next cold front will slowly 
slide south and reach the northern Big Country before washing out 
by the afternoon. This front will affect daytime highs across the 
northern Big Country on Friday and Saturday as this boundary
stalls out over the area. Look for highs in the low 60s across 
the northern Big Country on Friday and Saturday. Across the rest 
of the area highs will be warm once again with temperatures in the
70s.

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Models indicate an area of low pressure will develop across the
Oklahoma Panhandle and the associated cold fronts will bring much
colder and drier air into west Texas by Sunday. First, a Pacific
front will move quickly east across the area on Sunday morning
ahead of a southward moving cold front located across the Red 
River Valley. The depth and strength of the cold airmass will be 
something we will be watching during this time period. The 
Climate Prediction Center continues to indicate a colder and 
wetter pattern for our area. Some of the long range models bring 
some QPF into the region coinciding with this cold air punch which
could lead to the development some wintry precipitation 
developing by Monday night and into Tuesday. This will need to be 
watched as the models disagree on the temperatures with this 
system. We are confident that temperatures will begin to fall 
throughout the day on Sunday and remain cold on Monday and 
Tuesday. Current forecast highs on Monday and Tuesday will range 
from the low to mid 40s across the Big Country with temperatures 
in the low 50s south of the Interstate 20 corridor.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 57  36  64  51 /   0   0   0   0 
San Angelo 	 59  34  66  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Junction 	 62  31  65  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Brownwood 	 58  31  66  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Sweetwater 	 56  37  64  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Ozona      	 59  32  62  44 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

20/40