National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2019-02-11 20:47 UTC


731 
FXUS64 KSJT 112047
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
247 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

As of mid afternoon, extensive cloud cover was persisting across
the forecast area. This has resulted in cooler temperatures this 
afternoon and lighter winds due to limited mixing. A few spotty 
light rains showers are still occurring across the area but this 
precipitation is expected to end by late afternoon. Upper trough 
will move across the area this evening, with an associated Pacific
front moving through as well. The onset of stronger southwest winds
have been delayed and will likely begin affecting western sections
in the next couple of hours but are not expected  to be quite as 
strong as previously thought. Should still see sustained winds 
15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph north and west of a San
Angelo, Abilene to Haskell line through mid evening. Skies will clear
from west to east this evening as drier air filters into the region.
Winds will shift to a northwesterly direction overnight and diminish
to around 10 mph by daybreak. 

Sunny and cool weather will prevail on Tuesday as surface high pressure
dominates. Winds will be light, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s 
and lower 60s.      
 
$$

24


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Next Monday)

A dry, but otherwise eventful pattern will set up for much of west
Texas for the upcoming week through the weekend. Wednesday and
Thursday, strong southwest flow will bring warmer than normal
temperatures to the area. During this time, fire weather concerns
may pick up with the increased drying due to warm temperatures and
strong winds. By Friday, models are indicating that another
shortwave trough will push out of the Rockies and bring another
cool airmass to the region. The strength of this feature is still
highly variable as the GFS brings the colder air in much 
aggressively than the European. For now, chose to lean toward the 
colder GFS, given the past month's pattern. Regardless, it appears
we'll be in for a quick recovery no later than Saturday Night 
with a brief warmup on Sunday. By Monday, both the GFS and the 
European are indicating yet another cold Canadian airmass settling
in over much of the state. This time, models are also indicating 
an increase in moisture, which could lead to some winter weather 
concerns. However, models have been very finicky with features 
like this on Day 8 this winter, and temperatures are highly 
variable with this feature. As a result, we chose to go with just 
chance POPs for now, until models show a more consistent solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 36  58  37  67 /   5   0   0   0 
San Angelo 	 35  61  32  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Junction 	 38  63  32  67 /   5   0   0   0 
Brownwood 	 36  60  33  67 /  10   0   0   0 
Sweetwater 	 34  58  38  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Ozona      	 35  60  33  66 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JW/SAK