National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2019-02-11 11:21 UTC


701 
FXUS64 KSJT 111121
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
521 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Areas of low clouds with embedded drizzle are impacting most
terminals this morning. IFR CIGs between 300 to 800 feet were 
being reported at KABI and KJCT, with LIFR CIGs at 100 feet being
reported at KSOA. Included the mention of VCSH across all TAF
sites as an area of light rain expands in coverage and moves east.
An approaching Pacific front will push these low clouds and
precipitation to the east. VFR conditions will return to all
terminals with the passage of the front. Winds will be gusty
across the KSJT and KABI terminals. Winds will be from the west
between 14 to 18 knots with gusts up to 28 knots possible.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Today)

A Pacific front will shift the rain eastward with drier air 
moving in behind the front...

Expect a cloudy and wet start to the morning as areas of light 
rain showers will develop ahead of an approaching Pacific front 
from the west. These light rain showers will develop across the 
western half of the area and move to the east through the morning 
hours. Some light drizzle will be common across the Northwest Hill
country in the morning before the Pacific front forces the rain 
showers east by the afternoon. HI-RES models are in good agreement
in bringing the Pacific into the western counties by the 
afternoon and continuing to move it east and out of our area by 
the late afternoon. The eastern half of the area will continue to 
see on and off rain showers ahead of the front. Areas behind the 
front will have windy conditions develop with dry air replacing 
the moist air from the morning. Winds will turn to the west and 
these downsloping winds will help temperatures warm into the mid 
60s across the western Big Country and Concho Valley. Winds will 
be gusty with sustained winds between 20 to 25 mpg with gusts up 
to 40 mph possible. We will continue to monitor these areas for 
the issuance of a possible Wind Advisory should the models bring 
the bulk of the stronger winds farther eastward into our area. 
Look for gradually clearing skies from west to east throughout the
day and temperatures will climb into the 60s for most areas. By 
tonight we should see a more clear sky allowing for some 
radiational cooling to occur and overnight lows will drop into the
low to mid 30s.

40

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Weekend)

Cooler temperatures will affect the area Tuesday behind a Pacific
cold frontal passage Monday night. Following this front, zonal
flow will dominate the upper levels Wednesday into Thursday. This
will lead to dry weather, and warming temperatures. Temperatures 
near 80 degrees will be possibly by Thursday. 

The next cold front is still expected to move into the area
Thursday night. An upper level low will move southeast out of
Canada, and through the Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday,
allowing cold air to spill south out of Canada into the southern
plains. Medium range models generally agree on the timing of the
front, but do not agree on how cold temperatures will get behind
the front. With this air coming from Canada, will trend the
forecast toward the cooler ECMWF solution for Friday into the
weekend. 

20

FIRE WEATHER...

A Pacific front will move east across the region tomorrow 
afternoon. Behind the front strong westerly winds will develop and
will bring dry air into the far western counties. A Rangeland 
Fire Danger Statement has already been issued and we will monitor 
these areas for the potential of upgrading to a Red Flag Warning. 
Look for west winds increasing to 20 to 25 mph with isolated gusts
as high as 40 mph possible across portions of Sterling, Nolan and
Fisher counties. These areas did see some light rain, but with 
the strong winds and very dry air behind the front, fuels should 
become dry and be conducive for ignition. Dewpoints will drop 
quickly behind the front and afternoon minimum relative humidity 
values will drop into the upper teens to low 20s by the afternoon.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  35  57  38 /  20   5   0   0 
San Angelo 	 67  34  60  37 /  20   5   0   0 
Junction 	 65  38  62  36 /  20  10   0   0 
Brownwood 	 65  36  59  35 /  20  10   0   0 
Sweetwater 	 66  33  58  39 /  20   5   0   0 
Ozona      	 62  34  59  36 /  20   5   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/40