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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2019-02-11 11:21 UTC
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701 FXUS64 KSJT 111121 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 521 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Areas of low clouds with embedded drizzle are impacting most terminals this morning. IFR CIGs between 300 to 800 feet were being reported at KABI and KJCT, with LIFR CIGs at 100 feet being reported at KSOA. Included the mention of VCSH across all TAF sites as an area of light rain expands in coverage and moves east. An approaching Pacific front will push these low clouds and precipitation to the east. VFR conditions will return to all terminals with the passage of the front. Winds will be gusty across the KSJT and KABI terminals. Winds will be from the west between 14 to 18 knots with gusts up to 28 knots possible. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Today) A Pacific front will shift the rain eastward with drier air moving in behind the front... Expect a cloudy and wet start to the morning as areas of light rain showers will develop ahead of an approaching Pacific front from the west. These light rain showers will develop across the western half of the area and move to the east through the morning hours. Some light drizzle will be common across the Northwest Hill country in the morning before the Pacific front forces the rain showers east by the afternoon. HI-RES models are in good agreement in bringing the Pacific into the western counties by the afternoon and continuing to move it east and out of our area by the late afternoon. The eastern half of the area will continue to see on and off rain showers ahead of the front. Areas behind the front will have windy conditions develop with dry air replacing the moist air from the morning. Winds will turn to the west and these downsloping winds will help temperatures warm into the mid 60s across the western Big Country and Concho Valley. Winds will be gusty with sustained winds between 20 to 25 mpg with gusts up to 40 mph possible. We will continue to monitor these areas for the issuance of a possible Wind Advisory should the models bring the bulk of the stronger winds farther eastward into our area. Look for gradually clearing skies from west to east throughout the day and temperatures will climb into the 60s for most areas. By tonight we should see a more clear sky allowing for some radiational cooling to occur and overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 30s. 40 LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Weekend) Cooler temperatures will affect the area Tuesday behind a Pacific cold frontal passage Monday night. Following this front, zonal flow will dominate the upper levels Wednesday into Thursday. This will lead to dry weather, and warming temperatures. Temperatures near 80 degrees will be possibly by Thursday. The next cold front is still expected to move into the area Thursday night. An upper level low will move southeast out of Canada, and through the Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday, allowing cold air to spill south out of Canada into the southern plains. Medium range models generally agree on the timing of the front, but do not agree on how cold temperatures will get behind the front. With this air coming from Canada, will trend the forecast toward the cooler ECMWF solution for Friday into the weekend. 20 FIRE WEATHER... A Pacific front will move east across the region tomorrow afternoon. Behind the front strong westerly winds will develop and will bring dry air into the far western counties. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has already been issued and we will monitor these areas for the potential of upgrading to a Red Flag Warning. Look for west winds increasing to 20 to 25 mph with isolated gusts as high as 40 mph possible across portions of Sterling, Nolan and Fisher counties. These areas did see some light rain, but with the strong winds and very dry air behind the front, fuels should become dry and be conducive for ignition. Dewpoints will drop quickly behind the front and afternoon minimum relative humidity values will drop into the upper teens to low 20s by the afternoon. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 35 57 38 / 20 5 0 0 San Angelo 67 34 60 37 / 20 5 0 0 Junction 65 38 62 36 / 20 10 0 0 Brownwood 65 36 59 35 / 20 10 0 0 Sweetwater 66 33 58 39 / 20 5 0 0 Ozona 62 34 59 36 / 20 5 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/40