National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2019-01-12 04:28 UTC


229 
FXUS64 KSJT 120428
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1028 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has moved out of the
area with drier air moving in behind it. There are still areas of
MVFR and local IFR ceilings at southern and eastern locations at
this time. Expect these low clouds to persist through a few more
hours late tonight before the dry air can move through the entire
region. Low clouds should clear the area by sunrise or shortly
after with only some upper level clouds expected tomorrow. Winds
will become northwesterly tonight, picking up and becoming gusty
tomorrow. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 741 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ 

UPDATE...
Made a quick update to the forecast to increase PoPs across the 
area north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line, for the band of
showers and thunderstorms which has moved east into the Big 
Country and northern Concho Valley. This band of convection is
just ahead of a cold front. Farther to the east and south, the 
band of showers from earlier today has exited all but far eastern 
Mason and San Saba Counties. Reduced PoPs across the southern 
part of our area behind this band of showers. Keeping a slight 
chance across the Northwest Hill Country, where an isolated 
shower remains possible prior to Midnight. 

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ 

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers have moved east of most TAF sites early this evening.
There are still some MVFR and isolated IFR ceilings that are
expected to linger into the evening hours, especially for the
southern sites. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms may affect
the KABI terminal for a few hours this evening. Behind the rain,
winds will shift to the northwest, bringing drier air into the
area, and clearing out the low clouds after Midnight tonight.
Expect mainly clear skies and gusty northwest winds tomorrow
across the area. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Early this afternoon, a sharp upper level trough axis was moving 
east over Colorado/New Mexico and a surface low was moving into 
the Texas Panhandle, with southerly winds bringing increasing 
amounts of moisture up into West Central Texas ahead of a cold 
front to our west. The lift from the trough and increased moisture
(precipitable water up to 1 inch) has been resulting in an area 
of rain/rain showers across the western Edwards Plateau, Concho 
Valley and Big Country through the early afternoon hours, bringing
around 0.10-0.25 inches of rain with local amounts of 0.50 
inches. A few lightning strikes have occurred as well. As the 
trough and cold front continues to move east, rain will spread 
eastward through the rest of the forecast area this afternoon into
the early evening, with isolated thunderstorms possible as mid 
level lapse rates reach 7 deg C/km. Behind the cold front tonight,
conditions will dry and skies will clear, except in the Big 
Country where a vorticity maximum swings through south of the 
upper closed low, and so hi-res models show some showers and 
thunderstorms moving into that region. Overnight lows look to be 
in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

By sunrise Saturday morning, all precipitation in our area should
have ended, with a dry, sunny day expected as higher surface 
pressure moves in. Expect highs Saturday in the 50s. 

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday) 

Much colder temperatures are expected Saturday night into Sunday 
morning, behind a cold front that is forecast to move across West 
Central Texas Saturday morning. Increasing clouds are expected 
Sunday morning, with overnight lows generally in the low 30s. 
Below normal temperatures are forecast on Sunday, with highs 
generally in the 40s. Another cold morning is expected on Monday, 
with temperatures stating off in the upper 20s to lower 30s. 

A slow warm up is anticipated next week, with highs on Monday and
Tuesday generally in the 50s and highs for the middle to latter 
part of the work week back into the 60s. Expect generally dry 
conditions to continue through Wednesday. On Thursday, the GFS is 
indicating a weak short wave trough tracking across the forecast 
area, resulting in isolated to scattered showers. The ECMWF 
continues to be much drier, so for now have kept PoPS below 15 
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 39  51  31  45 /  50   0   0   0 
San Angelo 	 42  56  30  48 /  20   0   0   0 
Junction 	 46  60  30  50 /  20   0   0   0 
Brownwood 	 42  53  30  44 /  40   0   0   0 
Sweetwater 	 40  51  31  44 /  50   0   0   0 
Ozona      	 42  57  30  49 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$