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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2018-10-12 11:10 UTC

FXUS64 KSJT 121110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

/12Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings will continue at all sites through early to mid
afternoon, with brief VFR conditions expected late this afternoon
and evening. A return of MVFR ceilings is expected late this
evening into Saturday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible today, although confidence remain low
on the exact timing and placement, so have continued a mention of
VCSH. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible 
just beyond the TAF period. Winds will be from the south at 5 to
10 knots, becoming northeast at 5 to 10 knots at KABI, behind a 
weak cold front this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 503 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018/ 

(Today and Tonight)

..Rain Returns...

The potential for additional rain returns to West Central Texas,
beginning today. As another upper disturbance moves closer to
Texas, from the west, rain chances will increase today and
tonight. Tropical Storm Sergio will also factor into the mix, as
what remains of this tropical system moves across the Sierra 
Madres, in northern Mexico, into New Mexico and Texas, tonight. 
The Weather Prediction Center has most of our counties north of 
Interstate 10 in a marginal area for excessive rain, through 12Z 
Saturday morning. Given the unusually high rainfall amounts our 
counties have received, during the last several weeks, flash 
flooding is a possibility. However, after coordination with 
neighboring offices, will defer any flash flood watch to the day 
crew today. Also, the Storm Prediction Center has most of our 
counties in a marginal risk area for severe thunderstorms, for the
today and tonight periods. Although upper-level forcing will be 
marginal, a few thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and tonight, 
may produce large hail and damaging winds.

(Saturday through Thursday)

..Possible Flash Flooding and Turning Much Colder...

The potential for unusually high rainfall amounts will continue,
for all of West Central Texas, through at least Monday, as an
unusually potent cold front brings much colder air Sunday night
into Monday. This cold front, along with favorable dynamics aloft,
will enhance the potential for high rainfall amounts. Thus, flash
flooding remains a concern, at least into Monday. In addition,
some thunderstorms may produce large hail and damaging winds,
through this weekend. Models maintain surface winds from the
north, through at least mid week. Therefore, highs and lows for
much of next week will be well below usual highs and lows for
early October.


Abilene 	 75  61  73  56 /  70  80  90  30 
San Angelo 	 77  64  81  59 /  60  70  60  30 
Junction 	 77  67  82  68 /  40  50  60  30 
Brownwood 	 74  63  78  60 /  60  70  80  40 
Sweetwater 	 75  62  70  55 /  50  80  80  30 
Ozona      	 75  67  81  65 /  50  60  50  30