National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2018-10-12 05:07 UTC


534 
FXUS64 KSJT 120507
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1207 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings have developed at all sites, except KJCT and KBBD,
early this morning. MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop at KJCT
and KBBD by 10Z. The MVFR ceilings will persist through the
morning hours, with brief VFR ceilings expected by mid afternoon,
then a return of MVFR ceilings is forecast by late evening. 
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later
this morning into the afternoon hours, but confidence remains low
in the placement and timing, so have kept a VCSH mention for now.
Winds will be from south to southeast at 6 to 12 knots. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
A few light showers are affecting areas near the KSOA and KSJT
locations, but should not have any significant impacts. MVFR
ceilings are also affecting the KSOA area. With temperatures
cooling and moisture increasing, see no reason why those low
clouds won't persist into tomorrow. Otherwise, increasing 
moisture should result in low clouds developing tonight across 
the rest of the area, with scattered showers possible late tonight
into tomorrow as well. Winds will become southeast at 5 to 10 mph
later tonight, then south/southwest by tomorrow afternoon. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly 
across northern sections overnight. Precipitation is expected to 
be light through tonight, with most areas seeing 1/10 inch or 
less. Temperatures will be warmer tonight due to extensive cloud 
cover, with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Friday, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms across
West Central Texas due to weak mid to upper level ascent. Highs 
will be in the mid to upper 70s. 

21

LONG TERM...
(Fri Night through Thursday)

A heavy rain pattern is possible for West Central Texas Friday 
night and continuing into early next week. The remnants of Sergio 
will bring a good chance of rain to much of West Central Texas 
Friday night into Saturday, especially along and north Interstate 
10. There is also a potential for isolated severe thunderstorms 
during this time. Main threats will be large hail and damaging 
winds. 

Then both the ECMWF and GFS show a strong cold front moving into 
West Central Texas on Sunday. At the same time, both models show a
developing upper low across Arizona. This will result in strong 
lift across much of the area as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico 
and Pacific is lifted isentropically above the cold dome of high 
pressure. 

Additionally, a large 90-100 knot strong jet streak will be 
moving across the Panhandle Sunday through Monday. This should 
result in strong divergence aloft in the right entrance region of 
this 100 knot jet streak across portions of West Central Texas. 
The main upper trough will also provide additional lift. This 
means there will be a period of prolonged deep lift across West 
Central Texas from Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in 
the potential of additional flooding rainfall. It's still a too 
early to pinpoint the exact areas of heavy rainfall. But we will 
continue to monitor the threat. 

High temperatures will be mostly in the 40s on Monday and lower 
into the upper 30s to near 40 Tuesday morning. Chances of rain 
will continue through Thursday as an upper trough of low pressure 
continues across Baja. 

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 76  62  70  58 /  40  60  80  40 
San Angelo 	 78  63  78  60 /  40  70  80  30 
Junction 	 79  66  81  66 /  30  50  60  30 
Brownwood 	 76  63  72  61 /  40  50  70  40 
Sweetwater 	 76  61  68  56 /  30  70  90  30 
Ozona      	 75  64  79  64 /  30  60  70  30 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels