National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2018-10-11 19:55 UTC


158 
FXUS64 KSJT 111955
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
255 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly 
across northern sections overnight. Precipitation is expected to be 
light through tonight, with most areas seeing 1/10 inch or less. 
Temperatures will be warmer tonight due to extensive cloud cover, 
with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Friday, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms across 
West Central Texas due to weak mid to upper level ascent. Highs will 
be in the mid to upper 70s.  

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.LONG TERM...
(Fri Night through Thursday)

A heavy rain pattern is possible for West Central Texas 
Friday night and continuing into early next week. The remnants of
Sergio will bring a good chance of rain to much of West Central 
Texas Friday night into Saturday, especially along and north 
Interstate 10. There is also a potential for isolated severe 
thunderstorms during this time. Main threats will be large hail 
and damaging winds. 

Then both the ECMWF and GFS show a strong cold front moving into 
West Central Texas on Sunday.  At the same time, both models show a 
developing upper low across Arizona.  This will result in strong 
lift across much of the area as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and 
Pacific is lifted isentropically above the cold dome of high 
pressure.  

Additionally, a large 90-100 knot strong jet streak will be moving 
across the Panhandle Sunday through Monday.  This should result in 
strong divergence aloft in the right entrance region of this 100 
knot jet streak across portions of West Central Texas.  The main 
upper trough will also provide additional lift.  This means there 
will be a period of prolonged deep lift across West Central Texas 
from Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in the potential of 
additional flooding rainfall.  It's still a too early to pinpoint 
the exact areas of heavy rainfall.  But we will continue to monitor 
the threat.  

High temperatures will be mostly in the 40s on Monday and lower
into the upper 30s to near 40 Tuesday morning. Chances of rain 
will continue through Thursday as an upper trough of low pressure
continues across Baja. 

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 60  76  62  70 /  30  40  70  90 
San Angelo 	 62  78  63  78 /  20  40  70  80 
Junction 	 62  79  66  81 /   5  30  60  60 
Brownwood 	 59  76  63  72 /  20  40  60  90 
Sweetwater 	 59  76  61  68 /  30  30  80  90 
Ozona      	 63  75  64  79 /  20  30  60  70 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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