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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2018-10-11 19:55 UTC
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158 FXUS64 KSJT 111955 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 255 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Friday) A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly across northern sections overnight. Precipitation is expected to be light through tonight, with most areas seeing 1/10 inch or less. Temperatures will be warmer tonight due to extensive cloud cover, with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. For Friday, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms across West Central Texas due to weak mid to upper level ascent. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. 21 .LONG TERM... (Fri Night through Thursday) A heavy rain pattern is possible for West Central Texas Friday night and continuing into early next week. The remnants of Sergio will bring a good chance of rain to much of West Central Texas Friday night into Saturday, especially along and north Interstate 10. There is also a potential for isolated severe thunderstorms during this time. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. Then both the ECMWF and GFS show a strong cold front moving into West Central Texas on Sunday. At the same time, both models show a developing upper low across Arizona. This will result in strong lift across much of the area as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific is lifted isentropically above the cold dome of high pressure. Additionally, a large 90-100 knot strong jet streak will be moving across the Panhandle Sunday through Monday. This should result in strong divergence aloft in the right entrance region of this 100 knot jet streak across portions of West Central Texas. The main upper trough will also provide additional lift. This means there will be a period of prolonged deep lift across West Central Texas from Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in the potential of additional flooding rainfall. It's still a too early to pinpoint the exact areas of heavy rainfall. But we will continue to monitor the threat. High temperatures will be mostly in the 40s on Monday and lower into the upper 30s to near 40 Tuesday morning. Chances of rain will continue through Thursday as an upper trough of low pressure continues across Baja. 26 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 60 76 62 70 / 30 40 70 90 San Angelo 62 78 63 78 / 20 40 70 80 Junction 62 79 66 81 / 5 30 60 60 Brownwood 59 76 63 72 / 20 40 60 90 Sweetwater 59 76 61 68 / 30 30 80 90 Ozona 63 75 64 79 / 20 30 60 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 21/26