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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2018-10-11 17:50 UTC
105 FXUS64 KSJT 111750 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1250 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ Expect mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and tonight at the terminals, but widespread low end VFR and mid level clouds. The ceilings will lower to MVFR at most of the terminals by Friday morning(after 12Z). For the BBD terminal, will keep it VFR for now. Also, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) A cool fall day is in store for West Central Texas today, with light winds and afternoon highs ranging from near 70 degrees across the Big Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. A weak disturbance will approach from the west later this afternoon. Ahead of this feature we'll see increasing clouds from west to east as the day progresses. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may develop over southwest sections late this afternoon, then a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly across northern sections overnight. Precipitation is expected to be light through tonight, with most areas seeing 1/10 inch or less. Temperatures will be warmer tonight due to extensive cloud cover, with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday) Models continue to indicate changes in the forecast for this weekend and into next week. The remnants of a tropical system (Sergio) may move across El Paso and then on into North Texas and Oklahoma over the course of Friday night and Saturday. Some afternoon thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, but the activity associated with this disturbance will mark the beginning of a period of potentially heavy rainfall. Another period of potentially heavy rainfall may redevelop Sunday afternoon into Monday. An upper level trough developing over New Mexico could bring the needed lift to develop showers and thunderstorms. This is in addition to a cold frontal passage on Sunday as well, which will help provide some of the needed lift. Temperatures may be much cooler on Monday with highs only getting into the upper 40s across the Big Country and the lower 50s elsewhere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 60 76 57 / 5 20 40 60 San Angelo 75 62 79 61 / 10 20 40 60 Junction 77 62 79 66 / 5 10 30 50 Brownwood 73 59 77 60 / 0 10 40 60 Sweetwater 69 59 77 57 / 10 30 30 60 Ozona 73 63 75 64 / 20 20 30 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$