National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2018-06-19 05:04 UTC


060 
FXUS64 KSJT 190504
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1204 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all the terminals after 08Z. A
few hours of IFR are possible at the southern terminals, but will
not include in the 06Z TAFS. The ceilings will rise to low end 
VFR by early Tuesday afternoon.  21 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ 

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening should remain to
the west of all the terminals and have no impacts. Expect VFR 
conditions across all the terminals through the evening. Winds 
will be gusty at times from the southeast between 12 to 18 knots 
with gusts up to 24 knots. An extensive stratus deck will develop 
during the morning hours and impact all terminals throughout the 
morning. The KJCT and KBBD terminals will see MVFR ceilings, with
periods of IFR ceilings between 07-13z. Current TAF package 
carries BR with a ceiling of 700 feet at these sites. For the 
remaining terminals, MVFR ceilings between 1,500 to 2,500 feet can
be expected between 09-17z. All the terminals will return to VFR 
conditions by 18z. There is a chance for some afternoon 
thunderstorm activity across the southeastern portions of the 
area, and these storms could impact the KJCT and possibly the 
KBBD terminals. Latest SREF guidance shows a slight reduction in 
visibilities across the KJCT terminal between 18-21z, associated 
with this convective activity. Decided in include VCTS at the KJCT
terminal beginning at 18z in this TAF package. Will continue to 
monitor the latest trends and may introduce VCTS to KBBD in the 
next TAF update.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Showers and storms developing across West Central Texas this with 
the main axis across the western Big Country down into the western 
Concho Valley. This primarily from the old mid level moisture axis 
left over from the remnants of Bud that have slowly drifted east 
over the last several days. Main influence from the disturbance in 
the Gulf Of Mexico approaching the Texas coast will likely lead to 
more scattered showers and storms developing farther south into the 
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country later this afternoon. 

Most of the brunt of the system in the Gulf will be across Central 
and South Texas, leaving West Central Texas mainly on the western 
drier portion of the system. Still appears like some scattered 
convection will be possible across mainly the area along and 
southeast of a Brady to Menard line, with more isolated activity to 
the west. With more abundant cloud cover in place, temperatures will 
at least be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday with highs in the upper 
80s and lower 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday night 
through Thursday night. The best chances will be across the 
eastern half of West Central Texas, although Wednesday night, rain
chances are higher across the Big Country as an upper trough 
moves across the Central Plains. 

With a tropical-like atmosphere in place and weak steering winds,
localized heavy rainfall with street flooding will continue to be
the main hazards. 

Rain chances cut off by Thursday evening, as high pressure aloft 
builds in from the west. Highs around 100 likely Friday into 
Sunday across the Big Country and Concho Valley as 850 MB 
temperatures warm into the 28 to 31 Celsius range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 70  88  70  92 /  20  30   5  20 
San Angelo 	 71  89  70  93 /  20  30  10  20 
Junction 	 71  87  71  89 /  30  40  30  20 
Brownwood 	 71  85  71  89 /  20  40  20  20 
Sweetwater 	 70  89  71  91 /  20  20   5  10 
Ozona      	 70  90  69  93 /  20  20  10   5 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$