National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2018-10-20 17:39 UTC


101 
FXUS64 KSJT 201739
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate through Sunday afternoon.
Ceilings at the Junction and Brady terminals should be VFR, by 21Z
today. Expect a few light showers, mainly around the Sonora and
Junction terminals this afternoon. Winds, mainly from the 
northeast, will become variable, at 6 knots or less, this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018/ 

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Most locations have remained VFR, or come up to through the 
overnight hours. KABI has come in with LIFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs in 
the last hour or so. Will start the TAF at KABI with poor 
conditions, but expect these conditions to improve by mid to late 
morning to VFR. Otherwise, the other TAF sites appear to be
holding their VFR conditions, and should keep those going through
this evening with north/northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018/ 

SHORT TERM... 
(Today and Tonight)

A considerably quieter forecast is in store for the area today and
tonight. Showers are now confined to areas south of Highway 190
early this morning. A cold front, currently making its way through
Lubbock, will eventually move through our forecast area. However,
with low clouds clearing out, and only mid and upper level clouds
allowing more heating from the sun, temperatures will actually
continue to warm across the area with highs getting into the mid
60s to near 70 degrees in some locations. Expect the diminishing
trend of the light showers to continue today into tonight, so have
lowered precip chances to Slight Chance for areas along the
I-10/Hwy 190 corridors today, then farther southwest tonight as
the front moves south. With drier air behind the front combining
with clearing skies, lows will be several degrees cooler, falling  
into the mid 40s to lower 50s Saturday night. 

20

LONG TERM...
The long term part of the forecast does not have any major 
systems affecting West Central Texas. Expected rainfall amounts 
look substantially lower than what our area received during this 
past week. Temperatures will continue to be below normal mainly 
with the daily highs, but not as cool as what we saw earlier this 
week.

(Sunday through Monday Night) 

With an upper trough over parts of the western and southwestern 
CONUS, our area will be under southwest flow aloft. With model 
indications of a couple of impulses aloft entering Texas in the 
southwest flow ahead of the main trough, will have a possibility 
of showers, mainly across the southern part of our area. After 
Sunday, increased cloud cover will result in a reduced diurnal 
range in temperatures. 

(Tuesday through Wednesday Night) 

The aforementioned upper trough is progged to shift east toward 
the central and southern Rockies on Tuesday, and into the central 
and southern Plains on Wednesday. With increased lift and 
available moisture, scattered to numerous showers are expected 
across our area, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday. Carrying 
low PoPs for the possibility of lingering showers across the 
southeastern part of our area Wednesday night. Wednesday will be 
cooler (relative to Tuesday and Thursday) with highs expected to 
be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. 

(Thursday and Friday)

The GFS and ECMWF have less agreement late in the week in the 
upper level pattern for our area, and confidence in the details is
low. With collaborative considerations and the possibility of a 
shortwave trough entering Texas, carrying low PoPs for showers 
across our southern counties Thursday into Friday. Model 
indications are for most of the QPF to be south of our area, with 
our southern counties near the northern edge of the better 
available moisture. Daytime temperatures are expected to be a 
little warmer with highs mostly in the mid 60s Thursday, and in 
the mid to upper 60s on Friday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 70  47  67  48 /   5   0  10  10 
San Angelo 	 69  48  68  47 /  10   5  10  20 
Junction 	 68  51  66  49 /  20  10  10  20 
Brownwood 	 70  48  64  48 /  10   0   5   5 
Sweetwater 	 69  47  65  47 /   5   0   5  10 
Ozona      	 67  51  63  48 /  30  20  20  20 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$