National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSHV Received: 2019-01-13 00:10 UTC


756 
FXUS64 KSHV 130010
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
610 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

.AVIATION...
In the wake of a cold front, west-northwesterly winds can be 
expected with gusts diminishing across the terminals by 03z. A
cloud deck extending from Ruston to Lufkin will continue to move
southeasterly into Monroe through 03z. VFR ceilings can be 
expected at the onset of the TAF period at Shreveport, Lufkin, and
Monroe with MVFR ceilings elsewhere. Ceilings will drop to MVFR 
across all of the terminals by 06z and continue to prevail 
through 18z Sunday.

As drier air encroaches from the southwest on Sunday, the cloud 
deck associated with low-level moisture will begin to erode from 
the southwest after 18z. VFR will return to Lufkin, Tyler, and 
Longview after 18Z with mostly MVFR prevailing through the day 
elsewhere tomorrow. Winds tomorrow will be lighter at around 10kts
with gusts to 15-20kts in the late morning to afternoon hours. 
/04/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ 

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/

Cold front has moved across all but our eastern third this
afternoon and should be completely through our region by 00z this
evening. Skies have partially cleared near and south of the I-20
Corridor of NE TX into extreme NW LA but as expected, clouds are
filling back into the region from the north and west in the wake
of the frontal boundary where high 1-3kft moisture content
resides. Progs have most if not all our region filling back in
with this cloud cover overnight so tried to represent this in the
sky grids. Lake Wind Advisory criteria has been met across most of
the advisory area as well so will hang on to the advisory with
this package with it expiring at 7 pm. Overnight lows will be
tricky overnight as the cloud cover moving back into the southern
zones will do battle with cold air advection in the wake of the
frontal boundary. Stayed close to model blends concerning
overnight low temperatures. 

The clouds should hang tough through much of the morning with
partial scattering out of this cloud cover by afternoon, at least
across our southern zones by afternoon on Sunday though confidence
is not high. Again, with near neutral temperature advection on
Sunday, the high temperature forecast will greatly depend on just
how much clearing we see. Did not stray too far from model blends
concerning temperatures on Sunday. 

The sfc ridge stays to our north and west Sunday Night, thus we
should still keep a light northerly wind component but much less
wind speed than what we will see overnight tonight. Much like
daytime highs, overnight lows Sunday Night will greatly depend on
how much clearing we see during this time period. Otherwise, the
short term will see a drying trend which should continue into at
least the first half of the long term forecast period. 

Prelims to follow...13.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday Night/

Zonal flow aloft will persist, but shortwave ridging and a surface 
ridge of high pressure directly overhead will keep the forecast dry 
until at least Wednesday evening. Below normal temperatures will 
continue on Monday Temps will moderate Tuesday and Wednesday as low-
level southerly flow and warm air advection resume. Rain chances 
will return late Wednesday but will be higher on Thursday as 
isentropic ascent and large scale forcing from a weak shortwave 
trough moving across the Southern Plains spread across the region. A 
weak cold front will also accompany this trough, but will likely 
stall before reaching the forecast area. However, rain chances 
should briefly end across at least the northwest half of the area 
Thursday night/Friday morning as the best ascent moves out of the 
region.

Rapid leeside surface cyclogenesis will occur on Friday in response 
to an upper trough digging southeast from the Central Rockies toward 
the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers will 
likely develop once again during the day Friday. The highest rain 
chances should be Friday evening/early Saturday morning immediately 
ahead of the strong cold front and upper trough. Medium range models 
are in good agreement that a decent piece of cold air will become 
dislodged from Western Canada and will move into the Southern Plains 
with this system. The colder air aloft may provide enough elevated 
instability for a few isolated thunderstorms Friday night. 
Significantly colder temperatures are possible next weekend.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  37  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0 
MLU  39  49  35  49 /   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  33  44  30  49 /   0   0   0   0 
TXK  36  45  31  46 /   0   0   0   0 
ELD  37  48  32  49 /   0   0   0   0 
TYR  36  47  32  49 /   0   0   0   0 
GGG  36  48  33  49 /   0   0   0   0 
LFK  36  51  36  53 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for LAZ001-002-
     010.

OK...None.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166.

&&

$$

13/09/04