National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSHV Received: 2019-01-12 17:41 UTC


785 
FXUS64 KSHV 121741
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1141 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

.AVIATION...

Cold front continues to make steady eastward progress late this
morning, nearing a TXK/SHV/JAS line as of 17z. Continue to see
clearing behind the boundary as well, mainly along and south of
the I-20 Corridor across NE TX but post frontal moisture in the
1-3kft layer is condensing to form cloud cover north of the
corridor and thus, ceilings, perhaps MVFR ceilings could still be
possible later today at the TYR/GGG terminals. Otherwise, still
dealing with some IFR ceilings at the TXK/ELD and MLU terminals
but we should hopefully see them come up to MVFR levels this
afternoon. 

For the 18z TAF package, where skies have scattered out, have
cloud cover coming back into these terminals either beginning just
above MVFR heights or prevailing them MVFR and leaving those
conditions in through the overnight hours. Don't think we will
lose this cloud cover through the end of the TAF period on Sunday. 

Pressure gradient in the wake of the frontal boundary remains
strong with WNW winds sustained near 12-15kts with gusts upwards
of 25kts possible at the TYR/GGG/LFK and SHV terminals before
winds decouple somewhat this evening. Otherwise expect sustained
winds near 08-12kts and those prefrontal winds will eventually
shift around to more of a WNW or NW direction later this evening
into the overnight hours. 

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1038 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ 

UPDATE...

Widespread coverage of rain and showers has exited our eastern 
most zones quickly this morning. Dry slotting aloft has really 
assisted in this a little ahead of schedule. Remaining moisture 
remains very shallow ahead of the cold front, which as of 16z was
located near an Idabel, Oklahoma, to Longview and Lufkin, Texas 
line. Even given the shallow moisture ahead of the boundary, 
cannot rule out some additional very light rain/and or drizzle 
east of the boundary for the remainder of the day. Started to drop
pops completely but given the well defined cloud cover on VIS 
Imagery this morning along the boundary, decided to keep slight 
chance pops going east of the boundary for the remainder of the 
day. 

Skies are clearing behind the boundary but seeing a cu field
redeveloping north and west of Tyler, Texas with the latest 12z
progs insistent that low cloud cover will fill back in later this
afternoon if not this evening across most of the region. Tried to
portrait this in the sky grids as best as possible. 

Very uncertain with daytime temperatures today as some model
output suggests we will soar to near 60 degrees behind the
boundary but that model output is running a little to warm with
3hrly temperature output while other output is running a little
too cool. Did shave temps just a few degrees mainly along and
north of the I-20 Corridor for the remainder of the day. 

Update out shortly...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  39  49  35 /  20   0   0   0 
MLU  63  41  50  36 /  20   0   0   0 
DEQ  51  34  46  31 /  20   0   0   0 
TXK  53  36  46  33 /  20   0   0   0 
ELD  58  38  49  33 /  20   0   0   0 
TYR  54  37  47  34 /  10   0   0   0 
GGG  55  37  48  34 /  10   0   0   0 
LFK  60  38  52  36 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for LAZ001-002-
     010.

OK...None.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166.

&&

$$

13/13