National Weather Service Raw Text Product

886 
FXUS64 KSHV 120509
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1209 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.AVIATION...

For the 11/06Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR for all sites 
across the ArkLaTex. Middle and high clouds will be spreading over
the sites overnight and lowering during the early to mid morning 
Friday between 5-8 kft. Showers will spread in from the West and 
Northwest affecting KTYR, KELD and KTXK in the afternoon and 
early evening. Surface winds will be light and variable to light 
Northeast less than 6 knots overnight and East to Southeast 5-10 
knots Friday and becoming variable in the afternoon. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 945 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

UPDATE...

No changes will be made to the ongoing forecast package.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

SHORT TERM...
Coolest airmass of the season overhead with sunny skies a good
night of radiation cooling as northerly breeze decouples
overnight. However, mid lvl clouds in central TX have begun to
cross I-35 and will move into ne TX and se OK, keeping temps
closer to 60 degrees across those areas overnight. Likewise, these
clouds may dampen heating on Friday across western sections of
area with these clouds movg into eastern portions of area later in
the day. Rain chances to begin increasing Friday across Red River
Valley region bordering OK/TX although rainfall amounts will 
remain lgt thru this period of the fcst. /07/

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday Morning/

At the beginning of the forecast period, the remnants of Tropical 
Storm Sergio will begin to meet up with return flow off of the Gulf 
of Mexico somewhere over West and Central Texas. As the surface low 
approaches the ArkLaTex, rain chances will begin to increase by the 
afternoon timeframe, especially for East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, 
and Southwest Arkansas. From Saturday into Sunday, the surface low 
will track across the I-30 corridor and allow for some heavy showers 
and isolated thunderstorms. Instability during the entire forecast 
period will be limited, thus only mentioning thunder for the 
weekend, and that may be generous.  

Another round of precipitation will develop on the surface front as 
it pushes through the four-state region on Sunday. Afterwards by 
Monday morning, still more showers will develop along and north of I-
30 as southwesterly flow aloft will allow for overrunning of the 850-
700 mb frontal boundary. This setup will remain in place through 
much of Wednesday until surface high pressure builds in from the 
north. Overall rain totals will average from 1 to 3 inches from 
south to north, with the higher amounts along and north of I-30. 
Some localized higher amounts and some isolated flash flooding could 
be possible, especially along and north of I-30.

With the cold frontal passage late Sunday into Monday, some much 
cooler air will be in store for our region. High temperatures area-
wide will be some 20 to 25 degrees below normal while low 
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the remainder 
of the period. /35/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  71  58  75 /   0  20  20  30 
MLU  52  72  57  77 /   0  10  10  10 
DEQ  51  64  55  65 /   0  40  30  70 
TXK  51  67  56  67 /   0  30  30  60 
ELD  50  70  55  70 /   0  20  20  30 
TYR  56  70  59  74 /   0  20  30  50 
GGG  55  70  58  75 /   0  20  20  40 
LFK  57  77  61  80 /   0  10  20  20 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/07/35